Session Report: Regional Development & Urban Dynamics

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Session Report: Regional Development & Urban Dynamics

Postby Martijn Eskinasi » Fri Jul 22, 2011 2:41 am

Using model to identify and meet potential challenges in regional development: The ECOWAS T21 case, by Weishuang Qu, Herve Lohoues, John Shilling, Matteo Pedercini

Authors presented a background on the challenges for the Economic Community of West African States in improving life quality for the people in the 15 member states. A model was built based on the T21 framework used a/o by Ventana Systems. Simulated scenario's indicate an overall positive effect of regional integration, even enhanced by family planning policies.

Questions focused on the effect of income disparity in the model, the positive effects assessed by local experts and the origin of the T21 framework.

Regional Economic Growth and Municipal Financial Planning: An Application of A System Dynamics Model to Calgary, by Stanley Kongnetiman, Wenhui Fan, Patrick Walters, Nathaniel Osgood

Authors presented a model for financial planning of the City of Calgary. Oil & gas industry is dominant in the city, leaving it vulnerable to shocks. The model is based on Urban Dynamics, Ford's BOOM1 model and the Edmonton planning model. It was calibrated extensively to real world data. Housing, real estate and demography were modeled into certain detail as real estate is an important tax base.

Questions focused on tenure choice (renting vs buying homes), speculation and acceptance by policy makers.

Houdini: a System Dynamics Model for Housing Market Reforms, by Martijn Eskinasi, Etiënne Rouwette, Jac Vennix

Authors presented the core structure of Houdini: a housing market model based on Wheaton & diPasquale's Four Quadrant model (4QM). It formulates dynamic hypotheses for the RMoB of the Dutch housing market deviating very much from the goal seeking behavior of the 4QM: adaptive or speculative behavior by home buyers, residual land pricing by municipalities and oligopoly in the development market. The model matches the RMoB to a large extent. Some policy measures in the new 2011 National Housing Policy Document remind strongly of Houdini's findings.

Questions focused on modeling construction and acceptance by mainstream economists.
Martijn Eskinasi
 
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