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The ReThink Health website, sponsored by the Rippel Foundation, features the editorial, “Beware unintended consequences: what the ReThink Health model tells us about the impact of President Trump’s policies,” by the foundation’s President and CEO, Laura Landy. The editorial is based on a white paper by Jack Homer, which analyzes potential impacts on US health of four areas where policy reversal under Trump seems possible: health insurance, job growth, environmental regulation, and community-minded law enforcement. The SD model is used to estimate impacts on morbidity, mortality, worker productivity, and health care costs from 2017 to 2029, assuming that the policy reversals remain in place for that long. When all four of the reversals are combined, the first three outcomes are worsened by 3 to 4 percentage points over the 12 years. Health care costs are somewhat reduced—but only because access to needed care has been curtailed. On a more optimistic note, the ReThink Health model was also used to analyze constructive policies for regional health systems, in an article published in Health Affairs, a leading health policy journal, earlier in 2016.
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