A long delay - awareness of global warming (and cooling?)

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This forum supports discussion on topics of interest to the Environmental and Energy Special interest Groups of the System Dynamics Society. Everyone who is logged in may post to this forum.

A long delay - awareness of global warming (and cooling?)

Postby Richard Dudley » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:50 am

TIMELINE-How the world found out about global warming

Some of you may have seen this article about the growing awareness of global warming over the centuries, especially interesting is the long time it took from the start of political awareness to the first actual actions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCr ... USL3445896

Global Cooling?
Also, I am always intrigued by various articles about global cooling. I used to think, before reading them, that these must all be nonsense. But this one, based on observations of the sun from the international space station, does make one wonder what the next century will bring.... I guess that we will find out.

" The tendency of decrease in the global Earth temperature started in 2006–2008 will temporarily pause in 2010–2012. The increase in TSI within a short 11-year cycle 24 is expected to temporarily compensate the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 2-century variation. Only the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 11-year cycle 24 accompanied by continued decrease of its 2-century component in 2013–2015 will lead to stable subsequent cooling of our planet, which is expected to reach its minimum in the phase of a deep cooling by 2055–2060 ± 11 (Abdussamatov H.I. Izv KrAO. 2007. 103. No. 4. p. 292–298). The cooling can be similar to the one observed in the whole Europe, North America and Greenland in 1645–1715 in the period of Maunder minimum of solar luminosity and sunspot activity when the temperature will fall by 1–1.5 Celsius degrees down to the mark of the so-called Maunder minimum. The regular period of climatic minimum (the stage of global cooling) will last for approximately 45–65 years and the new warming will eventually come afterwards within the regular 2-century solar cycle. The deep cooling is expected to be regularly replaced by warming only by the beginning of 22nd century. "
Richard Dudley
 
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Re: A long delay - awareness of global warming (and cooling?)

Postby Richard Dudley » Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:24 pm

Sorry, I forgot to include the link to the global cooling paper.
Here it is: http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html
Richard Dudley
 
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Re: A long delay - awareness of global warming (and cooling?)

Postby Stephen Wehrenberg » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:14 pm

I suspect the Reuters article originated with Spencer Weart, author of The Discovery of Global Warming. It was a great read and is available for the downloading from http://www.aip.org/history/climate/

Steve
Stephen B. Wehrenberg, Ph.D.
Human Resource Strategy and Capability,
and Director of Executive Development, US Coast Guard.
Organizational Sciences, The George Washington University.
President, Association of Change Management Professionals (ACMP).
Stephen Wehrenberg
 
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Re: A long delay - awareness of global warming (and cooling?)

Postby Richard Dudley » Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:55 am

Thanks Stephen... that is a great site with lots of useful links.

-Richard
Richard Dudley
 
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