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System
Dynamics NEWSLETTER Volume 18 –
Number 4 October 2005 |
Thank you
Many thanks to all who
contributed their writing, photographs, and information to this issue of the
newsletter: Emmanuel Adamides, Brian Dangerfield, Richard Dudley, Meg Fryling, Valerie Gacogne, Justus Gallati, Shayne Gary, Jose J. Gonzalez, Andreas Größler, Burak Güneralp, Mark Heffernan, Gary Hirsch, Hyunjung Kim, Birgit Kopainsky, Geoff McDonnell, Giovan Battista Montemaggiore, Michiya Morita, Leeza Osipenko, Oleg Pavlov, Anastássios Perdicoúlis, Ying Qian, Michael Radzicki, Scott Rockart, Etiënne Rouwette, Markus Salge, Burkhard Schade, Habib Sedehi, Birgitte Snabe, Warren Tignor, Silvia Ulli-Beer, Wayne Wakeland, and Yangang Xing. Apologies if we have inadvertently omitted someone.
Adapted from the President’s Address: "The Seven Ages of System Dynamics," given at the
International System Dynamics Conference in Boston, Massachusetts, July 20, 2005.
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Society President Graham W. Winch |
Dear Members of the System Dynamics Society,
Some of you will know that this is a year of highlights and transition for me. The highlights have been many - Luton Town being run-away winners of League One, the Red Sox laying a ghost at last and winning the world series, and Liverpool winning the European Cup after being 3-0 down - at least one person in the room has not stopped grinning yet. To be honest the real highlight might have been Auburn Tigers crowned as NCAA football champions but for the dumb pollsters, and Geelong Cats - well close, but no cigar.
Also, I have had the pleasure of three papers being accepted for the conference with co-authors in three different countries - and I have delegated doing the presentation to my co-author in each case - one thing, at least, that Graham W. and George W. have in common! Despite all these, the major highlight is, of course, serving as President of the Society.
At the same time, a major change for me is that I have decided to give up the comfort of my tenured professorial post to become a free-lancer focusing on the research and consulting I most enjoy, and hopefully to ramp up my leisure time a little.
This change got me thinking about how we grow and evolve.
For most of us, traditionally 'coming of age' - the transition between youth and adulthood - used to be thought of as at aged 21, though now it is perhaps usually considered to be eighteen. It has been announced that the 2007 conference will be in Boston, which will enable us to celebrate, near their birthplace, both the 50th anniversary of system dynamics, and the 25th anniversary of the Society. These are quantitative milestones, well worthy of celebration, but we should really also look at some softer attributes - as anyone with children knows, they think they are grown up by about age twelve, yet they are still hanging around the house asking for money well into their twenties.
In considering some of our developmental attributes, I was reminded of the 'Seven Ages of Man' from Shakespeare's As you like it (the joys of 'O' level English Literature) which start:
All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players,
They have their exits and entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages.
Well, the field of system dynamics has had nearly 50 years old of development, and while it is maybe not as all-pervasive as some think it should be, its impact has been significant. It is mentioned in most quality books on management science and simulation, and successful and valuable applications are reported in a very wide range of domain specific journals in management, social and economic policy and well beyond. There are still controversies, however. There is still heated debate over whether analysis using the diagramming conventions and with qualitative analysis of loop structures and feedback process, but without simulation, is actually system dynamics or not. And the arguments of some that in systems with a high proportion of soft variables, attempts to create a quantitative model might tend to mislead rather than bring a fuller analysis, has never been fully addressed as a methodological issue. We also have some friction with colleagues in related disciplines who see 'soft system dynamics' as, at best, a small sub-set of systems thinking alongside many other well-used techniques, whereas there are some within our area who consider 'soft SD' and 'systems thinking' to be synonymous.
How about the Society - at age 23 or thereabouts has it yet come of age? The Society is certainly a large and complex entity serving the needs of a number of different member constituencies - I have to admit that I have only really appreciated the range of activities and member services since becoming President. Let us review what these entail:
• We have been delighted to record that we now have over 1000 individual members, plus institutional members.
• A thriving in-house journal - SDR - which in addition to being part of the membership package, is also taken by a significant number of libraries. It is excellently supported by publishers Wileys - who, I think it is fair to say, consider it a real asset to their portfolio. It has a good impact factor, and figures consistently in the rankings of the ISI journal citation reports.
• An international high-quality conference - now in its 23rd year - which is once again breaking records for participation. I think those of us who go to a lot of conferences appreciate the quality of refereeing and of the sessions, as well as the diversity of activities with the PhD colloquium and workshop day.
• 15 chapters - including new chapters this year in Russia and Pakistan. Apart from two - Economic Dynamics and the Student chapter - these are country or global region-based, and show the extent of local activity worldwide in addition to the centrally organised events…
• … plus SIGs - more informal groupings of people with a shared interest
• A terrific new complimentary membership scheme which will allow twenty new memberships to be available at any point in time, predominantly to support new efforts and participation in developing and lower-income areas in the world (thanks again to Wileys for their support for this scheme).
• A growing range of resources - beer game, paper collections and so on
• A now well-endowed fund to reward and recognise outstanding student performance
• Growing and enthusiastic school-based programmes - (though activity at this is predominantly in the USA's K-thru-12 school grades.)
• And finally, but not least, a great group of corporate and conference sponsors
So, we are certainly through the mewling and puking and creeping like snail phases, and the lover's sighs!
So have we also passed through the next phase yet? - Shakespeare's soldier:
Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths, and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honour, sudden, and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the cannon's mouth. (… sound like anyone you know?)
Growing up has raised issues too:
• Head office has had to move to new larger space at Albany.
• Re-organisation of VP roles and an increase in the total number of VPs to reflect growing tasks.
• Issues of succession, which has prompted the agreement to Associate Vice Presidents, who can share some of the workload and also gain experience in the governance of the Society.
Of course, the usual factor associated with 'coming of age' is that no further growth is expected. This is manifestly not the case - our membership is at record levels and we have two new chapters already this year. I have no doubt next year's conference in Nijmegen will be another record breaker, and expectations are extremely high for the anniversary conference in Boston the year after. We are still experiencing steady if not exponential growth, with, as yet, no limits to growth in sight.
So what about myself? After the soldier comes the justice:
And then, the justice
In fair round belly, with good capon lin'd,
With eyes severe, and beard of formal cut,
Full of wise saws, and modern instances…
Considering what comes afterwards, I will settle for this!
Graham W. Winch
We're already into the second year of "owning" our membership. This means the Society central office is invoicing for and processing memberships rather than this being done by our publisher, John Wiley & Sons. Our activities began one year ago with the renewal campaign for 2005. This has been a very rewarding experience for us as we have much more direct contact with our members. By bringing home the membership processing, we can continuously improve our personalized services to you.
Renewing is easier this year for current and new members. Last year, only current members could renew online; this year the online function has been expanded to include a web-based application for new members too! You may choose to renew online from the Society website, or you may mail or fax your preprinted membership form back to us. Please contact the office if you need assistance or have any trouble renewing.
This year the Society reached a new membership milestone. The 1000th member for 2005 is Warren Burgess, a first-time member and conference participant from BP Exploration Operating Co, Aberdeen, UK. The first to renew for 2005 was Alex Kononets, from Kiev in the Ukraine, a student member since 2003. Please see the Growth of Membership chart below.
A summary of the 2006 Call for Papers for next summer's conference in Nijmegen, the Netherlands, follows in this newsletter. The Call for Papers can be found in its entirety on our website. I am happy to report that Etiënne Rouwette, 2006 Organizing Chair, will be visiting Albany later this month and together we will be working on conference planning. Mark your calendar-the dates of the conference are July 23-27, 2006.
Plan ahead and save these dates also! The 2007 International System Dynamics Conference will take place in Boston on July 29-August 2, 2007 and will mark the 50th anniversary year of the field of system dynamics.
As always, please feel free to contact me with any comments or questions.
Roberta L. Spencer
Dana Meadows Award Endowment Fund Successfully Reaches Goal
We are delighted to announce the successful conclusion of the fund drive to permanently endow the Dana Meadows Student Award, given for the best work by students presented at the annual conference of the Society. The fund drive was announced one year ago, in October 2004. Donations were fully matched through the generosity of a diverse group of Dana's colleagues, former students, and supporters of the Society, doubling the impact of contributions by Society members and friends. In total, one hundred individuals and organizations contributed to the endowment fund, including thirty-one who contributed at the 2005 conference in Boston, putting us over our goal with a total of $65,600.00 raised.
The Meadows Award is given each year for the best student work presented at the annual conference of the System Dynamics Society. The award honors the late Dana Meadows, an inspiring and devoted teacher, by encouraging and recognizing the work of students, the future leaders of the field (the award, including past winners, is described at http://www.systemdynamics.org/Society_Awards.htm).
The Meadows Award has been a great success. The number and quality of student entries has grown each year since the award was established in 2001. At the 2005 conference in Boston there were 60 submissions, roughly 16% of all submissions! The quality of the students' work has also increased dramatically. Even more important, the award is catalyzing growing participation and interest in the field of system dynamics by students from all over the world. It is empowering the newest generation in our field to become more active in the Society and profession, a wonderful sign.
We thank all those who contributed so generously to the fund. We are particularly grateful to Jane and Allen Boorstein, who not only supported the award from its inception but also contributed to the endowment fund. We are indebted to the Boorsteins for their strong and continuing support. See http://www.systemdynamics.org/Awards/DMA/Donors_List.htm for a full list of contributors.
Again, thanks to all who contributed.
John Sterman, Roberta Spencer, Michael Radzicki, Drew Jones, and John Morecroft
Wiley InterScience Change of Policy
E-mail addresses are now required for Wiley InterScience User Logins. Beginning August 15th, Wiley InterScience began requiring individual users of the site who access online subscriptions via a username and password to update their registration information with a valid e-mail address in place of a self-selected username. This new policy is designed to help improve security and reduce account duplication. Requiring an e-mail address as a login has become widely standard practice among many high-profile commercial websites.
When a registered user comes to the Wiley InterScience site and enters their existing login, the following will occur:
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1. User enters current login and password.
2. User is prompted to enter name, country, and an area of interest, along with a single valid e-mail address.
3. User receives a one-time confirmation e-mail, then clicks on the authentication link in the message. The verification process is complete.
Subsequently, users can log in to the site with just their e-mail and password. (NOTE: confirmation links expire after 24 hours; after that, users can re-submit their info, if necessary.)
Aside from the confirmation e-mail, users will not be sent any further e-mail alerts from Wiley InterScience unless they explicitly opt-in to receive such messages. If you no longer use your Wiley InterScience login, or access online content only via institutional IP-based subscriptions, then you do not need to update your account. Only individuals who access personal or member subscriptions via a login will need to do this. Similarly, if you choose to register for any of the personalized features of the site, such as table of contents alerts, or purchase single Pay-Per-View articles, you will need to update your login. New users registering on the site for the first time will be guided through a similar procedure to enter and validate their e-mail logins.
from John Wiley & Sons
Diversity in the Society Membership
What is Diversity? Think of it as variety. When we talk about diversity in people, we mean variety in the human dimensions that make us similar to or different from each other, including (but not limited to) our country of residence, gender, age, education, ethnic origin, and profession. For example, since ethnicity and gender are important dimensions of human diversity, all combinations of ethnicity and gender, including white men, black men, Asian women, and native women, define an organization's diversity. The diversity of an organization includes everyone.
Are we a diverse organization? Currently our answer seems to be yes and no, as the Society membership is becoming very diverse on some dimensions but there is a way to go on others. This question is best answered by looking separately at each of the dimensions of diversity for which we have information.
Country of residence: If we consider how many countries around the world our members come from - 56 - then we are becoming diverse on this dimension. The countries where we have members are primarily located in Europe (including Russia and eastern Europe), Australasia, Asia, and North America. This is true for our chapters as well. We have done well growing our geographical representation in these areas, and we have an opportunity to grow further in Latin America and Africa. However, if we consider the number of members we have in each of these countries, the picture looks a little different for in many of these countries we have fewer than 10 members. So while we are doing well in our geographical reach, we have opportunities to improve the number of members we have in each country as well as the number of countries represented. This particularly applies to lower income and developing regions, and the Wiley Sponsored Membership scheme, announced at the conference, is designed to help us support increased membership in these regions.
Gender: Society membership has grown by over 40% since 1999 (Figure 1), yet the representation of women has remained flat at 12% (Figure 2).
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Figure 1: Increase in membership
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Figure 2: Percent of membership by gender
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In October 2004, the Diversity Committee included a pilot survey in the annual membership renewals requesting demographic information on gender, age, and education. The survey confirmed that the above results hold also in 2005, with women continuing to represent about 12% of Society membership. While this figure perhaps reflects the areas of academe and professional practice we have historically served (e.g. engineering), this is nonetheless a disappointing figure. The areas of academe and professional practice of our members have broadened with the growth in our membership and our desire is to see the representation of women become more reflective of these broader areas. In addition, there are indications from our membership data that the dynamics of women joining and staying in the Society differ from those of men. We need to understand these differences so that if we increase the number of women who join, we are able to retain them.
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The ratio of women to men is higher for younger groups than for the Society as a whole. However, since we do not have the data connecting age with length of membership, it is difficult to say whether this will eventually translate into a larger representation of women over time. We need more detailed data to link age, gender, and length of membership in order to assess how demographics and membership retention interact. |
Table 1: Distribution of members by age group and gender as a percentage of all respondents (N = 359)
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Values for cells with 4 or fewer respondents have been removed to protect
respondents’ anonymity. |
Do we need to be a diverse organization? Diversity in the System Dynamics Society is a membership attraction, development, and retention issue. The world is facing an array of complex problems that we know system dynamics can help us address. Yet we must recognize there is tremendous diversity among these problems as well as among the stakeholders, decision makers, and public we desire to influence. Our ability to grow as an organization and profession as well as to realize the benefits of system dynamics to society depends on our ability to attract, develop, and retain qualified members who reflect this diversity.
What is the Diversity Committee doing? As a result of concern over the lack of growth in the representation of women in the Society, and to monitor other dimensions of diversity, the Policy Council in July 2004 unanimously approved the formation of the Diversity Committee to assist it in monitoring and improving the diversity of the System Dynamics Society membership. Last year the Diversity Committee focused its efforts on understanding the current diversity of the Society, as well as challenges members may be facing because of their diversity. The Committee chaired a Diversity Roundtable at the ISDC 2005 in Boston where participants were invited to discuss issues and provide feedback to the Policy Council. The forum was well received and the emphasis of the feedback was constructive. Issues raised concerned the respect given to all members and conference participants regardless of their role, seniority, etc., how to make new attendees as welcome as possible, and the accessibility of leading members of the community. Concern was also expressed that the Society strives to attract and welcome groups presently under-represented in our membership. The feedback has been circulated to Policy Council members along with ideas to address some of these issues. Improvements have already been discussed in planning for future conferences and for the Society's future direction.
This year, in addition to continuing our work of defining and understanding the diversity of our Society membership, which will include improving mechanisms for gathering and reporting on membership diversity information, the Diversity Committee will support the Policy Council in continuing to implement improvements. The Policy Council is committed to ensuring that the Society is a leader in understanding and improving the diversity of its membership.
There are two ways you can provide your own feedback to the Diversity Committee: join the email distribution list for the Committee (sign up by sending an email containing "subscribe DIVERSITY Firstname Lastname" to listserv@listserv.albany.edu) or attend next year's Diversity Roundtable at ISDC 2006. We are committed to making the Society a comfortable place for all members. If you have suggestions, we look forward to hearing from you!
Deborah Campbell, Chair, Diversity Committee, and Policy Council Member, 2003-2005
Wiley Sponsored Membership to the System Dynamics Society
At the 2005 Boston conference, the System Dynamics Society was very pleased to announce a new scheme to be sponsored jointly by John Wiley & Sons, our publisher, and the Society to encourage development of the system dynamics community in 'lower income' countries and regions. The Complimentary Memberships Committee has developed the following implementation guidelines for this scheme:
(1) Name: The new SDS category of membership will be called the 'Wiley Sponsored Member'.
(2) Purpose: The purpose of this new category is to encourage development of the SD community in 'lower income' countries1 and regions to enable chapters to be formed or maintained, to encourage the development of local SD activity/meetings etc., or to encourage recent SD graduates who move to a new post where there is no current SD activity.
(3) Number: Up to 10 Wiley Sponsored Memberships will be available each year, full membership entitlements will be provided at no charge to the member [up to a maximum of 20 memberships current at any time].
(4) Duration: A member will remain a Wiley Sponsored Member for up to 2 years, and then be expected to subscribe under the appropriate normal membership category.
(5) Eligibility: Only prospective members who would qualify for the Society's reduced membership rate (student/subsidized member) may apply, and the Memberships will normally only be available in 'lower income' countries. The application should include a statement about relative incomes in his/her country of residence as part of the case.
(6) Application form: Applications must be made on a designated WSM Application Form (link below). The applicant can make a brief statement explaining their case to be a Wiley Sponsored Member. In addition the name of a referee must be provided (i.e. a current member of the System Dynamics Society, or a suitable person from the local academic, business or general community). Any comments made by the referee in support of the application should be inserted into the form, but all such comments are subject to verification by the committee, who may seek further information from the referee. Referees' details must include an email contact address and this will be the only method of contact. All information provided by the applicant must be included within the one-page form, and no further materials should be appended or submitted.
(7) Application assessment: The decision to award a Sponsored Membership will be made by a special committee nominated by the Policy Council. The present committee is Bob Cavana (Chair), David Lane, Scott Rockart and Graham Winch. The decision to award will be based on individual circumstances and the potential to grow SD membership and activities in presently under-represented economic regions. The individual circumstances considered will be based solely on the application form plus any further solicited comments from SD members in good standing (or other nominated academics or professionals). The committee's decision each year will be final, but re-application in a future year will be permitted.
1A 'lower income' country for the purposes of this scheme is defined as a country with a GDP per capita estimated to be less than US$15,000 pa. This is likely to include most countries in the world except the majority of OECD countries. For example, refer to the GDP per capita listing on the OECD web site: www.oecd.org/dataoecd/55/60/33747039.pdf.
Bob Cavana, VP at Large
Bob Eberlein Receives Award for Exceptional Service
At the 2005 Conference in Boston, the System Dynamics Society was pleased to present Robert L. Eberlein with a special award for exceptional service, in grateful recognition of support far beyond the call of duty. Only the second distinguished service award in the history of the Society (the first was presented to Jack Pugh in 1997), the award recognized Bob's diverse and essential contributions to the System Dynamics Society. Bob's work on behalf of the Society has been tireless. Bob has served in a variety of key Policy Council positions continuously since 1987, including Secretary, Vice President for Meetings, and President, but most of the time he has taken on projects and solved problems simply because they needed to be done. Over the years he organized several conferences, including site selection, negotiations with hotels, logistics, and program. Building on this experience, he established formal procedures for developing and selecting conference venues and organizing teams. He created a customized web-based system for submitting, reviewing, accepting and scheduling papers for the annual Society conference, a system that, with the growth of the Society and conferences, is now essential. Bob is amazingly productive and responsive: During the year leading to the 2005 conference Bob would frequently receive urgent calls or emails from Roberta or the program chairs asking for some new feature for the system. Bob not only suggested better ways to implement these suggestions, but also delivered, often literally within minutes. Frankly, we don't know when he sleeps. He is always calm and constructive, a consensus builder. He has been vital to the success of the Society, giving of himself far beyond the call of duty. The Society gratefully recognizes his efforts and is delighted to present him with an award for exceptional service.
Graham Winch and John Sterman
Kim Warren Wins Forrester Award
The Jay W. Forrester Award was presented this year to Kim D. Warren for the winning work Competitive Strategy Dynamics, published by Wiley in 2002. Introducing the winner as "a distinguished scholar, teacher, and consultant," David Andersen and John Morecroft noted, "Kim likes well-grounded ideas that translate into action and results. He challenges academic orthodoxy. He also profoundly understands the customer, brands, market entry, and competition-whether you are talking polymer products, pubs and restaurants, business ideas or educational materials." One of the nominators of Competitive Strategy Dynamics wrote, "Kim Warren's book is a major piece of work-a unique synthesis of concepts from strategy and system dynamics interpreted through the lens of personal industry experience. Moreover the text is supported by a range of innovative educational software, including microworlds and new model building software, that bring to life the book's dynamic view of strategy and firm performance." Congratulations, Kim!
Kim's award presentation can be heard by clicking here.
David Andersen and John Morecroft, Jay W. Forrester Award Committee
Dana Meadows Student Prize Awarded in Boston
Congratulations to all the 2005 Dana Meadows Prize Winners. Their papers may be viewed at http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/proceed/index.htm
This years winners of the Dana Meadows Prize for the best student paper presented at the annual conference were Todd BenDor, Sara Metcalf, Lauren Fontenot and Brandi Sangunett, from the University of Illinois. Their paper was entitled "A Decision Support System for Emerald Ash Borer Eradication Using Spatial-Dynamic Modeling." This paper presents spatial modeling of the spread of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) in the Midwestern US and Canada and their lethal impact on Ash trees. Five models are presented with detailed mathematical foundation of cell based geospatial maps coupled to the SD model of EAB spread. The paper is clear and well-written. The model background is well explained and convincing. The assumptions are well founded and model formulation is based an extensive and comprehensive review of the literature. The research is highly relevant to epidemiology studies containing a spatial dynamic component. It is also applicable to human disease dynamics and bioterror prevention policy management. Overall the Awards Committee considered this to be an outstanding paper.
In addition, Dana Meadows Merit Prizes were awarded to: Martin Kunc, London Business School for his paper "Illustrating the Competitive Dynamics of an Industry: The Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Industry Case Study; Timothy Quinn, MIT for "Lab Turnaround Time and Delayed Discharges: A Systems-Based Action Research Investigation"; Patricia Ochoa, Universite de Lausanne, Switzerland for "Policy Changes in the Swiss Electricity Market: A System Dynamics Analysis of Likely Market Responses"; and Burak Gunerap, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign for "Towards Coherent Loop Dominance Analysis: Progress in Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis". These were all regarded as excellent papers. Over 50 student papers were submitted for this year's awards. Assessment was difficult due to the very high standard of the papers.
Walid Badr Announces New Business Partnership
Walid Badr reports from Egypt that Mohaseboon Financial and Business Consultants has signed a business partnership agreement with the Regional IT Institute to work jointly on the "Management Champion League" project. The project includes developing and providing programs of business management with the aid of computer based management simulation games to business executives. The program will start in April, 2006. The plan is for the program to expand and be offered in other countries in the Middle Eastern region. Mohaseboon believes that this project will give a great push to the awareness of system dynamics in Egypt and the entire Middle East. Please contact Walid at walid@mohasboon.com for more information.
Bob Cavana Receives Promotion
Dr. Bob Cavana, Vice President at Large for the System Dynamics Society, has been promoted to the rank of Reader at the Victoria University of Wellington. A Readership is a very ancient title in British universities and is also used in some Commonwealth countries. Well done Bob!
Etiënne Rouwette Visiting Scholar in Albany
Etiënne Rouwette from Radboud University in the Netherlands will be a visiting scholar at the University at Albany for the coming two months. He will be involved in research on group model building, attend projects with clients and work on the preparations for the 2006 conference. As the groups in Albany and Nijmegen share an interest in participative modeling approaches, this is a great opportunity for sharing ideas on project design and effective elements of the intervention. Radboud University encourages and supports international cooperation and funds this research visit.
New PhD's
It is our pleasure to announce members of the Society who have recently received their PhD's.
Hazhir Rahmandad "Three essays on modeling dynamic organizational processes." Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, August 2005
Photos from the Boston Conference are posted on the Society
website at http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/pictures/index.html–please take a look.
You will find below articles written by volunteer conference session reporters. While not all sessions are covered, we hope these give a feel for the conference. There was an interesting mixture of work presented at the conference. Links to many full papers, including abstracts and supporting materials can be accessed on the Society website at http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/proceed/index.htm.
If you would like your own copy of the CD-ROM proceedings, extra copies are for sale through the Society office.
From the 2005 Conference Organizing Team, thanks!
PhD Colloquium, Sunday, July 17
The International PhD Colloquium is an event of the System Dynamics Student Chapter. It has been organized by PhD students and held as a full-day event on the Sunday before the conference every year for the last six years. Its objective is to bring together PhD students who are involved in system dynamics research and to give them the opportunity to raise key questions and/or concerns related to their research and discuss these in depth in a constructive and enjoyable atmosphere.
This year more than 20 PhD students presented their research and more than 150 people in total participated in the event. Professor Nelson Repenning was so kind as to give an opening speech, focussing on the opportunities and challenges facing PhD students in the field of system dynamics. The rest of the day included presentations, workshops, and poster sessions, and was organized in five blocks.The event was supported by many of the most respected senior academics, including Professor Forrester. We are thankful for their interest and support, contributing with their experience and knowledge in the discussions, workshops and poster sessions.
The event also formed a foundation for students to interact with peer students and establish a network that will hopefully be of great value also in the longer time horizon. From the feedback we have received, we believe that most of the participants found it to be a positive experience providing inspiration, interesting learning opportunities, and useful contacts to be used in their further pursuit of the PhD degree.
The papers presented at the PhD Colloquium will remain accessible through
http://is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de/PhD_Colloquium2005/. Thank you to everyone who contributed to make the day an interesting and vivid event.
Birgitte Snabe and Markus Salge, 2005 PhD Colloquium Organizers
SESSION REPORTS
Health Policy Special Interest Group (HPSIG) Meeting on System Dynamics and Health Reform, Sunday, July 17
The meeting of the HPSIG at the 2005 ISDC focused on the question of why reform is so difficult to achieve in the US and other countries and the potential role that the HPSIG might play in applying system dynamics to health care reform. The meeting began with a presentation by Dr. Steffie Woolhandler, co-founder of Physicians for a National Health Program, on the magnitude of the health care problem in the US. Then, Jack Homer and Gary Hirsch presented the highlights of the paper "Achieving Health Care Reform in the United States: Toward a Whole-System Understanding" that had been prepared in advance to provide a basis for discussion about health reform and the potential role of system dynamics. There were comments from a responder panel that included Dr. Woolhandler, Dr. John McDonough, the CEO of Health Care for All, a Boston-based advocacy group, and John Rodat, CEO of Signal Health. There was then extensive discussion by the group about the paper and future directions that the HPSIG's work might take.
Dr. Woolhandler's presentation emphasized:
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• The numbers of people in the US who lack health insurance and the effect of that lack of insurance on health outcomes
• The high cost of health care in the US relative to other countries and its effects on the global competitiveness of US business
• The comparatively poor performance of the US on various health measures despite its high costs
Comments on the paper on "Achieving Health Care Reform in the United States…" included:
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• The need to add a political dimension to the relationships shown in the causal diagrams
• The possible value of considering and modeling reform with smaller-than-national populations such as that of a metropolitan area or state or province or a subgroup such as children
• The difficulty of tracking and reinvesting savings from improved management of health risks and of explaining the complexities of health reform to audiences of policymakers as well as the general public
Ideas about directions for future work included:
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• Show how stakeholders interface with the causal map that was presented. Bring together the three conceptual threads that are central to the work and relate to each other: health and disease, political, and insurance coverage and financial.
• Propose a special issue of the System Dynamics Review on health systems to provide a forum for the parallel efforts we will undertake.
A number of people in the HPSIG expressed a willingness to engage in projects between now and next year's conference in Nijmegen. These could be analyses of particular countries' experience including system dynamics models that help to explain why health reform efforts in those countries have been successful or unsuccessful. The efforts could focus on health reform in a national system or, as was suggested, a smaller segment of the population such as children or older people or a geographical area such as a state or province or metropolitan area. We could then have an expanded workshop at the Nijmegen conference to share what we learned from the different efforts.
We agreed that the authors of the paper presented in the HPSIG session would make revisions to the causal diagrams to reflect some of the comments received and that the revised diagrams could serve as a template for parallel efforts if people found them useful for that purpose.
Gary Hirsch
Mental Models and Learning, Parallel Session, Monday, July 18
The papers in this session included experimental work, theoretical modeling and field research. Carlos Capelo's presentation related an experimental research project which found that balanced scorecards in combination with strategy maps can improve managerial performance in a simulated task environment. Emmanuel Adamides spoke about how product and organizational modularity influences strategic flexibility (the ability to precipitate change through strategy changes). Emmanuel's theoretical model included two contradictory effects of organizational modularity: while it enhances product flexibility it may also lower incentives for environmental scanning. Given the reduction in scanning, Emmanuel argued that organizational modularity may reduce rather than increase strategic flexibility. Martin Kunc related how he used annual report statements by the CEOs of four commercial radio firms to develop resource maps for each firm. The resource maps were both quite rich and quite different from one another with differences lining up closely with the original business lines of each firm. Martin asserted that the resource mapping process provided insight into why managers of competing firms built such different systems of resources. Silvia Ulli-Beer recounted work combining system dynamics with scenario planning for a client through a series of workshops which brought together fragmented knowledge in the firm and helped the client assess the learning process itself. Silvia related that, during the process, participants gained a greater appreciation for the importance of understanding the mechanics of systems (rather than simply trends) and of looking for causal relationships.
Scott Rockart
Developments in Organizational Theory, Parallel Session, Monday, July 18
System dynamics has been making great progress in the field of organizational theory, and at the parallel session "Developments in Organizational Theory" we saw three new researches that are currently and/or potentially contributing to that progress.
John Voyer, Suan Chinn, and Charlotte Pryor made the first presentation on "Adaptive Leadership Challenges at Smaller Nonprofit Organizations: A System Dynamics Approach." In their research, they tackled the inefficiency and ineffective issues in information and accounting systems in nonprofit organizations. The challenge that many nonprofit organizations face is that they are required to meet higher accountability standards with less and less government resources, while at the same time they are expected to fulfill their organizational missions. Voyer et al. explain the situation using limits-to-growth and shifting-the-burden system archetypes, and they build a simple three-stock model that represents such organizational dynamics. The model is used to show how implementation of new culture influences an organization in terms of its capabilities, cost of operation, and stakeholder satisfaction. The audience raised a question whether the model could be applied to for-profit organizations, to which Voyer responded positively. It was also noted that the model would be richer if a delay concept was incorporated.
The second presentation was made by Steffen Bayer, David Gann, and Ammon Salter on "Balancing Work - Bidding Strategies and Workload Dynamics in a Project-Based Profess