The 7th International Conference
of the System Dynamics Society
1989 – Stuttgart, Germany
The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel and plenary sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by Peter M. Milling and Erich O. K. Zahn were printed in hardcopy and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings, including abstracts. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com.
For details about purchasing a copy of the printed proceedings, visit our website System Dynamics Society.
Abstract: The System Dynamic National Model was undertaken to show how local policies governing decentralized decisions in an economy create observed overall economic behavior. I feel we have succeeded well beyond our original expectations. The model, endogenously, without any external driving time series, generates the major observed modes of economic behavior: business cycles, inflation, the economic long wave and growth.
Abstract: The structured systems approach integrates the design of computerised models and information systems with comprehensive relational data bases. It can be applied to any kind of optimisation and simulation models including system dynamics. In addition, the structured systems approach supports the model design process and its documentation; it simulates the interdisciplinary and interpersonal participation in the model design process.
Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making
John D. Sterman
Abstract: In recent years laboratory experiments have shed significant light on human behavior in a variety of microeconomic and decision-theoretic contexts including auctions, bargaining, and preference elicitation (Plott1986, Smith 1986, Slovic and Lichtenstein 1983). Despite the success of experimental techniques in the domain of the individual and small group, there has been comparatively little work relating the behavior of decision makers to the dynamics of larger organizations such as an industry or the macroeconomy.
Synergetics and Social Science
Abstract: General concepts for the quantitative description of the dynamics of social processes are introduced. They allow for embedding social science into the conceptual framework of synergetics. Equations of motion for the socioconfiguration are derived on the stochastic and quasideterministic level. As an application the migration of interacting human populations is treated. The solutions of the nonlinear migratory equations include limit cycles and strange attractors. The empiric evaluation of interregional migratory dynamics is exemplified in the case of Germany.
Corporate Strategic Thinking: The Role of System Dynamics
Henry Birdseye Weil, Kenneth P. Veit
Abstract: System Dynamics began thirty years ago as a bold attempt to apply engineering analysis concepts to business systems. But from the late 1960s onward, most System Dynamic research focused on public policy problems. Business applications have grown steadily, though less visibly and primarily outside academia. For example, over the past twenty-five years, Pugh-Roberts Associates has completed hundreds of management consulting assignments using System dynamics for clients in the financial services, aerospace, electronics, telecommunications, computer, chemical shipbuilding, transportation, electric power, energy, and natural resources industries. Some of the best-known, most successful businesses throughout the world have System Dynamics.
A System Dynamic Model and Policy Analysis for National Education and Economy Development
Xu Qingrui, Zhu Keqin, Li Junjei
Abstract: Most of the developing countries are faced the problem how to allocate limited resource to education to promote economy growth. In this paper, the System Dynamics methodology is employed to solve the problem. The interactions between education, economy and Science-Technology (S&T), and the inherent mechanism of education and economy are studied. Based on these studies, a system dynamics model for the national education and economy development is established. According to the actual socio-economic situation of China, several different resource allocation policies for education are tested on the model. Finally, some useful policy suggestions about resource allocation for education are given, such as the proper ratio of education expenditure to national income and the proper ratios of resources allocated to different levels of education.
Business policy and strategy
Abstract: In recent years the way in which problems are approached in the assembly area within the manufacturing firm has gained increasing importance for economic planning. In connection with this, the demand for long term economic flexibility of assembly systems comes to the forefront. A firm should not limit itself purely to investment decisions in the planning of assembly systems, if it is to successfully meet growing demand (on both the market and technology fronts). However, it has become essential even in this field that strategic thinking and planning are considered more important than they have been in the past.
There are considerable difficulties, however, associated with the strategic decision-making processes involved in the planning of flexible assembly systems. System Dynamics assembly models are currently being developed at the Business Management Institute at Stuttgart University ( within the framework of the “Sondereforchungsbereich 158” sponsored by the DFG).The aim of this is to understand and cope with these problems more easily, with specific reference to long-term decisions, the lacking objective assessment criteria and the high complexity of the problem.
A System Dynamics Model for Automation
Abstract: A system dynamics model is presented in this paper along with the results of some policies and their consequences automation. The automation seems to be the answer for faster growth and development throughout the world whether or not there is excessive labor or its shortage in a nation. Higher productivity, lower costs, better quality of products and services, remaining competitive and new innovations are benefits of automation and they are very important factors in industrialization and as well in sustaining the jobs in the long run. Very often, particularly in the developing countries, the politicians either exploit or in most cases misunderstand the total effects of automation and computerization. In India, for example, computerization of even very important services like airlines and trail reservations, insurance and banking have suffered due to political decisions for two decades. Only recently they have realized their mistakes and are trying to catch up. This simple system dynamics model can be easily used for systems analysis to study the effects of automation and thus can help in making strategic decisions in automation and policy guidelines formulations.
Planned Organizational Change: Theory, Model, Data and Simulation
Chanoch Jacobsen, Yitzhak Samuel
Abstract: Organizations have to adapt to their environments in order to survive (Lawrence and Lorsch, 1967; Weick, 1969; Galbraith, 1967). Hence, recurrent structural changes are strategic responses of organizations to the growing turbulence of modern society (e.g., Tichy, 1983). While most organizations can alter their strategies, structures and procedures to some extent, many changes do not achieve their stated goals because of inertial forces blocking the way (Hannan and Freeman, 1984). Many of the factors affecting organizational change processes have already been identified (cf. Zaltman and Duncan, 1977), but we still lack a comprehensive view that integrates the various interplaying forces (Nadler, 1981; Carnell 1986).
Accounting Measurement and Methodological Characteristics of Accounting Dynamics
Saburo Kameyama, Takahiro Kojima, Akira Uchino, Kinya Machida
Abstract: Accounting Dynamics is a methodology for modeling and simulation of accounting using System Dynamics. Our reasons for presenting Accounting Dynamics are as follows.
- Accounting is a primitive quantification of social processes composed of everyday transactions between economic entities.
- Therefore, accounting models, which consist of such transaction data, have their actual counterparts in the real economic world.
- On the other hand, accounting measurement (including double entry bookkeeping) is very adaptable to the System Dynamics observations.
- So that, Accounting Dynamics modeling and simulation seem to be very effective tools for depicting, analyzing, predicting and improving the actual state of resource allocation in social systems.
We believe there is no other system that measures each and every routine transaction as completely as business accounting. Furthermore, in most System Dynamics research on social systems, e.g., the System Dynamics National Model, it is emphasized that there is no macrostructure, other than the aggregation of many microstructures. If the national economy’s behavior results from its microstructure, a realistic and reliable model of that microstructure will be an indispensable premise for building a National Model. The accounting Dynamics model will provide such a macrostructural building block at the business level or the upper social level.
In our presentation, we analyze accounting measurement and identify the methodological characteristics of Accounting Dynamics. Accounting measurement has axiomatic rules (primarily presented by double entry) and institutional constraints. Traditionally, accounting measurement is periodic (discrete) and lacks the feedback concept. We introduce the feedback concept into the accounting model and present generic Accounting Dynamics models in some detail.
Abstract: Over the past decade, as a result of world-wide stagnation – combined with the entrance of low wage competitors to the market – the situation of the manufacturing industries in the industrialized economies became more competitive. Although it is not accompanied by an increasing output, the application of flexible manufacturing as a new process technology seems to enable the enterprise to gain productivity and to push up it’s competitive strength.
Therefore, the necessity to introduce these technologies is emphasized in numerous discussions. On the other hand these technologies require capital-intensive investments. So the capacity of reducing costs seems to be a decisive measure of economic advantage.
Abstract: The state of the art of business strategy design today uses well developed sets of rules. If business segments and competitors are known, then the interaction of the competing firms takes place on two different levels.
In the market place one product outcompetes another within the same business segment. Within the different firms clearing of the business portfolio’s takes place across the market.
Based on extensive groundwork by A. Lyneis we prototyped a general strategy-verification model, which not only serves as a training for marketing managers as e.g. Markops but which allows to start the simulation adapted to the specific business context for which a proposed strategy has been formulated.
Some cases will be used to illustrate the approach chosen.
Marketing Analysis and Forecasting as a Strategic Business Tool
James M Lyneis, Maurice Gluckman
Abstract: Pugh-Roberts has developed a number of simulation models to forecast the demand for products in specific markets. These models contain key feedback relationships which create growth, decline, and cycles in the market. They are unique in their integrated representation of macro-economic, micro-economic, and regulatory factors. Their broad scope makes them powerful enough to specifically show the relative importance of industry factors such as manufacturer pricing policies, inventory and production policies, capacity expansion policies, and the timing of new product introduction, in creating or magnifying market cycles. These models are highly valuable because, unlike simple statistical models, they explain the root causes of cyclical behavior and can therefore more accurately predict the timing and severity of market cycles. As a result, the models provide valuable information regarding:
- timing of “booms” and “bursts”
- required production capacity and production rates
- “windows of opportunity” for new product introduction
- relative growth of market segments
- relative importance of growth versus replacement demand
- relative importance of price, availability, and technology in determining demand and market share
- effects of macro-economic, regulatory, and/or political changes on overall demand patterns.
These market models have been successfully used in aerospace, automobile, computer, container shipping, financial services, industrial coatings, insurance, health care, and mail order retailing industries, so they are generally applicable. To illustrate their value versus statistical models, two of the existing aerospace models are examined in detail. With emphasis on the “Macro/Micro” issues, the basic causal structure is described and the importance of feedback is demonstrated with sensitivity tests. General uses, and examples of other potential applications, are also discussed.
Abstract: During the last few years we have witnessed the development of two main lines in computeroriented strategic decision support- quantitative simulation approaches und qualitative knowledge based (expert-) systems. As we will show in this paper the process of strategy making can be improved by combining the two approaches within loop-based strategic decision support systems.
The potential of the loop-based strategic decision support approach is demonstrated with the “know-how transfer model” which explains the evolution of multinational corporations in less developed countries and which helps to improve the strategic internationalization and know-how transfer decisions.
Modelling a Biotechnology Startup Firm
John D W Morecroft, David C Lane, Paul S Viita
Abstract: The top managers of a biotechnology startup firm agreed to participate in a system dynamics modelling project to help them think about the firm’s growth strategy. The paper describes how the model was created and used in order to stimulate debate and discussion about growth management.
There were several novel features about the process used for capturing management team knowledge in the model, and for representing unique structural features of biotechnology manufacturing and marketing. The paper highlights these novel aspects of conceptualisation. A heavy emphasis was placed on mapping the operating structure of the factory and distribution channels. In addition, much time and effort was spent on choosing model concepts and vocabulary suited to the business and to thinking carefully about units of measure and dimensions. Qualitative modelling methods (structural diagrams, long variable names and friendly documented algebra) were used extensively to capture the management team’s description of the business.
The size of the model (and partial models) was kept deliberately small to ensure the involvement of the management team. Simulation scenarios were designed to stimulate debate about strategic issues such as capacity allocation, capacity expansion, customer recruitment, customer retention and market growth. The paper describes how the management team was ‘drawn-in’ to using the computer to design and debate their own strategic scenarios. The paper concludes with comments on the impact of the project.
Abstract: The competitive situation of the German Federal Railway has visibly intensified due to the following factors: the way in which important customers (the coal and steel and fertiliser industries) are susceptible to crisis; the longstanding political favouring of road construction; the introduction of new technologies (video link-up, electronic mail etc.); and also the europeanisation of the transport market and the associated price decay (Duetsche Bundesbahn, 1987). The precarious financial situation, as well as growing pressure from the public, presents the railway management with the difficult task of, on the one hand, reducing costs, and on the other hand, of improving the standard of service offered. In order to be able to cope with this problem, it is necessary to identify and formulate corresponding strategies, against the background of existing strengths and weaknesses, as well as growing chances and risks arising from environmental development. Through the strategies, and through innovation, invention and reduction in costs, the railway can be developed from a bureaucratic institution to a modern and competitive tertiary sector company. Only in this way can the railway’s ability to survive be secured in the long term (Zahn, 1988).
This paper presents a system dynamics model, which portrays an important area of the federal railway. With the help of this model, the interrelations and mutual dependencies of this complex system are to be demonstrated. The model provides a valuable article in the field of strategic planning, in which strategic decisions, which are often based on uncertain information, can now be founded on a sound basis, and therefore, the decision process can be effectively supported.
Teaching and training
Feedback Delays and Control in Complex Dynamic Systems
Abstract: The results from studies on more complex tasks, such as concept learning and problem solving, are confusing: some results indicate negative effects of feedback delays, other results no effects of delays and even some positive effects (see Brehmer & Allard, 1988a). Thus, the problem of the effects of feedback delays is in need of study. This paper will review some of the results from a research program designed to investigate the problem of delays in a relatively complex computer simulated micro world which subjects must learn to control.
Criteria for evaluating success of management schools in terms of contribution to society are presented.
The network of interactions that make a management school successful is described. It contains links with the dominant power groups: business community, government, unions and public institutions in general. It includes students, alumni, and staff. Business needs, research results, schools’ prestige and attractiveness to faculty are also part of it.
The nature of the interrelations and their relative importance are examined during the four phases of a management training institution: feasibility analysis, planning, launching and sustained operations.
Some causes peculiar to mature management schools’ frequent stagnation and decay are examined and preventative actions suggested.
A Study on Human Control in Stock-Adjustment Tasks
Ernst W. Diehl
Abstract: Results of an ongoing study investigating the effect of different task feedback characteristics on human performance are reported. In a computer-assisted experiment, subjects were asked to perform a dynamic stock-adjustment control. A subject’s control action enters the system in two ways: it effects the stock to be adjusted and it feeds back on the disturbance that impinges on the system. The latter effect is varied with respect to its strength and its delay. The major finding that emerges from the experiment is that increasing strength in the feedback link (in either a positive or negative direction) worsens performance. An effect of delay length on performance could not be shown.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to show some of the schemes used by systems researchers and consultants to collect data about their clients’ perceptions of problem situations. These various schemes–which use both words and graphics, consisting more or less of curved lines and arrows– are useful for
1. helping clients express their perception of a problem situation
2. organizing clients’ thinking
3. helping to overcome traditional rivalry between individuals and between groups
4. helping “to create a consensus and commitment to action in a team” (Eden, 1988,2).
My paper will discuss three such schemes, proceeding from the ‘soft’ systems methodology (Checkland, 1981); then ‘cognitive mapping’ (Eden, 1988); and finally, two system dynamics studies dealing with health care systems.
Abstract: The overall design is sketched of a training game and behavioral decision making research tool based on a System Dynamics corporate simulation model of a magazine publishing company. The organization of the program to run the game and the type of output generated is described. Some of the possible uses of the game to investigate behavioral decision making and group learning in a complex decision environment is mentioned.
Organizational Learning: A New Challenge of System Dynamics
Peter M. Senge
Abstract: The subject of how organizations learn and how organizational learning can be enhanced and accelerated is becoming a major interest in the business world. In the movement to reinvigorate American manufacturing, organizational learning has emerged as a major theme. In Hays, Wheelwright and Clark’s recent book Dynamic Manufacturing: Creating the Learning Organization, (Hays, R.H., Wheelwright, S.C., Clark, K.B., 1988) the authors conclude:
“There is one common denominator in high-performance plants: an ability to learn-to achieve sustained improvement in performance over a long period of time. When assessing a manufacturing organization, learning is the bottom line.”
Methodology and theory/optimization
Generic Qualitative Behavior of Elementary System Dynamics Structures
Javier Aracil, Miguel Toro
Abstract: In this paper we will assume that the qualitative information about a given concrete system comprises no numerical information beyond the signs of the influences, the relative value of these influences and the classification of the variables in a system as levels, rates and auxiliaries. With this information we try to get as much knowledge as possible on the behavior modes of the system, in the concrete meaning given to behavior mode in the qualitative theory of nonlinear dynamical systems.
Our aim is to explore how the formal qualitative analysis techniques, based on the second of the above senses of qualitative, can be used to solve the kind of questions suggested by the first of the uses. In this way a synthesis of both senses can be reached.
The results here reported are still in a work progress stage. For instance, a computer implementation of them is being developed. However we think that they are interesting enough to deserve publication.
Abstract: In this paper, using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that the “structurally-oriented” behavior tests and other standard behavior tests are different in a fundamental sense. We also show how the structurally-oriented behavior tests can help diagnose/remove structural flaws. Thus, we suggest that such tests be identified and analyzed by System Dynamics in more detail. It is hoped that the tests will be improved, standardized and implemented as part of all major SD simulation software.
Modeling Control of DNA-Replication in Bacterial Cells
Brian Bodholdt, Bjarke B. Christensen, Jacob Engelbrecht, Erik Mosekilde, Jeppe Sturis
Abstract: We have developed a dynamic model of DNA replication control in bacterial cells and of the subsequent cell division. The main hypothesis is that a certain protein, which has a negative feedback regulation on its own production, is an essential factor in initiation of the replication. The model is stochastic in the sense that the kinetic association and dissociation processes are assumed to take place in accordance with a Poisson probability distribution with mean values that match experimentally determined constants. An important feature of our model is that it shows correlation between the magnitude of the kinetic rate constants and the size, stability and the dynamics of the cell. The model thus allows us to analyze the distribution of cell volumes at the time of initiation for different growth rate, different association and dissociation constants, and different promoter strengths.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to compare the efficiency and robustness of policies obtained using alternative system dynamics support methods. The comparison shows the need for creating new methods which combine the efficiency of the optimization methods with the robustness of the modal methods. One of these hybrid methods is the recently developed reference approach which exhibits the best efficiency and robustness.
Abstract: This paper discusses the multilevel evaluation system and fuzzy synthetical evaluation method for the validity of the system dynamics model, and gives a computation example at last. The example proves that fuzzy synthetical evaluation can give satisfactory results.
Abstract: The theoretical results are mixed at best. Linear systems do not show novel behavior. Some non-linear models may show new growth modes as revealed by formulas for the eigenvalues of the linearized versions of such models. The new growth modes shown by a reduced-order version of the Commodity Cycle model (Meadows, 1970) suggest that this non-linear model may support novel behavior in some regimes of operation. This paper partially lays to rest that expectation.
System Formalitation and Models Building
Margarita Vázquez, Manuel Liz
Abstract: In this work, we examine advantages of formalization, and specially Ziegler’s system formalization, relating to the most fundamental concepts used when building models with System Dynamics (SD). This is exemplified through the University/Unemployed model. We finish talking about the relations between model, theory and system concepts.
Tomorrow, Today: System Dynamics Models or Expert Systems?
Graham W. Winch
Abstract: It was once suggested to me, half jokingly perhaps, that System Dynamics offers “2nd -Generation Expert Systems – before the 1st Generation”. This paper reconciles the theories and processes, and draws upon business consulting assignments, to examine how close to reality this notion is.
A Study of Sensitive Test
Ching T. Yang, Ansheng Cao
Abstract: It is necessary to test a newly built model to make sure that it does simulate the actual system. The test may include many aspects, such as sensitive test, comparison test with history data, etc. This paper studies sensitive test and presents some results of the findings.
In studying the structure of a given system, the endogenous variables and exogenous variables are given explicitly. If we can not tell the difference between them correctly, it may confuse the real meaning of the sensitive test.
In the present analysis we find that the conditions for non-sensitivity of variables to a model are: 1) the change is made for one variable only and 2) the change is small. The conditions for sensitivity of the variables to the model are: 1) two or more variables change at the same time and 2) the change is great. A model may also become sensitive for a small change of the exogenous variable.
The above results have been thoroughly investigated and the methods of the sensitive test are presented.
Gaming&decision theory/computer-based learning
Abstract: In a dynamic simulation game portraying a multiplier-accelerator problem, there are major differences between high and low performers; high performers voice specific concerns for future states of the system, while low performers are less likely to think about the future. Planning, especially incorporating the deceptive nature of feedback, is necessary in systems that exhibit diverging long and short term behaviors. A comparison of game results with written reports show that there is a positive relationship between performance and understanding of the game. These results are contrary to previous research where performance and understanding have been unrelated (Broadbent et al. 1978, 1986), but can be explained by the added complexity of non-linear feedback tasks with shifts in loop dominance. Such tasks are, in contrast to simple regression models, non-routine and therefore verbal and behavior aspects of decision makers’ mental models correspond.
Computer-based Case Studies in Management Education and Research
Alan K. Graham, Peter M. Senge, John D. Sterman
Abstract: There is growing interest in combining system dynamic models with conventional case studies in order to create learning environments for management education. Such computer-based case studies promise improvement in strategic thinking skills and better integration of modeling in the policy and strategy area. Moreover, these models-with-cases are tangible products with which to conduct research in computer-based learning. This paper surveys the opportunities for using computer-based case studies in management education and for conducting novel research on management learning.
The paper first examines how models-with-cases fit in the established areas of strategic management and business policy. Which issues, in the broad range covered by strategic management, do models-with-cases address? Next, two current examples of computer-based case studies are presented (People Express Airlines and Intecom PBXs) to show explicitly how cases and models are combined and used. Finally, the paper explores research questions that arise in conjunction with such work; 1) how to teach effective inquiry skills, 2) how to teach conceptualization skills, 3) how to enhance the ability to apply learned theories to new situations, and 4) adapting measurement methods to evaluating the educational effectiveness of computer-based cases in teaching these mental skills.
Abstract: The use of interactive gaming environments to teach system principles has recently been gaining in popularity. One of the most promising applications of system dynamics model-based games is “learning laboratories,” workshops that blend system dynamics principles and repeated simulation game trials with ongoing conceptualization and feedback sessions to help managers gain a deeper understanding of the system within which they operate. This paper will first describe the design of such a learning laboratory, its implementation, and its use as a vehicle for learning to think more systemically. This will be followed by a discussion on how the learning lab helps unearth deep-rooted assumptions and encourages people to challenge them in a “double-loop learning” mode. Finally, the paper concludes with a brief discussion on possible future steps toward developing systems thinking skills in an organization.
Modelling the Process of Complex System Control
R. H. Kluwe, C. Musiak, H. Haider
Abstract: The research reported here is concerned with the determinants of complex system control. It is part of a rather comprehensive project where subjects are studied while acting in an unfamiliar, dynamic task environment. In the following the research approach as well as some of the empirical results will be reported only briefly. The focus is on the description of a computer programme and its role in the research strategy.
Abstract: System dynamics models are typically created using multiple streams of information including quantitative data, written records, and information contained in mental models of both individuals and groups. While qualitative sources of information are widely recognized as important in all stages of the model building process, little systematic research has been completed how best to elicit and map this knowledge. In this paper, we survey the existing literature on mapping and eliciting knowledge for system dynamics modeling and also explore this literature in the broader fields of cognitive psychology and small group processes. Special attention is paid to new software advances to support these processes.
Abstract: This paper describes a user-friendly learning medium that revisits the problem of economic development with a behavioral perspective. Formal modelling and computer simulation create a laboratory which makes it possible to experiment with ideas without incurring the costs and risks of action research. Besides sharing the insights gained by the author in his experiments, the package also invites further experimentation by the readers through use of the accompanying software.
Macro economics policy
A Critique of Roemer’s Conception of Exploitation
Abstract: The paper deals with Roemer’s claims that the Marxian theory of surplus value is logically faulty and should be considered the special case of his own “general theory of exploitation” (the “GTE”). It is shown that Roemer’s models and theorems implicitly confirms the main point of “Das Kapital”: profit does be the the converted form of surplus value produced by working class under capitalism.
A System Dynamics Approach to the Function of the Economic Leverages in China’s Economy
Qifan Wang, Wang Ying
Abstract: After being overlooked for many years, now the financial and monetary system plays an important role of adjustment and control functions in national economy, relating to which, the four economic leverages–price, tax rate, interest rate and wage are the main tools of carrying out these functions. Based on system dynamics approach, this paper quantitatively studies the long-term development tendency of their interaction and coordination. Based on simulating results under normal economy development, policy tests and analyses have been done to discuss the problems emerging from current economic reform. The reasonable ranges of the adjustment of price, tax rate, interest rate and wage increase rate are suggested and the amount of money supply are discussed. Then some policies of coordinately applying the leverages to improve the behaviors of system are put forward. This paper has made some progress in quantitatively analysing the long-term development of the financial and monetary system, in establishing a credible and practical model for policy analysis to solve the problems emerging from the economy of China.
A Socio-Economy Development Strategy Study of a Typical Underdeveloped Coastal Open City
Qifan Wang, Hongshan Yang, Manling Yang
Abstract: This study is related to the socio-economic development strategy of a typical underdeveloped coastal open city (named L) which was mainly done by means of system dynamics approach.
L city is located in the north to the Taiwan Straits. It is one of the most famous lands of overseas Chinese ancestors in China. And it famous with a long history and splendid ancient culture. It is the starting point of the “Silk Way On Sea” with excellent ports and rich natural resources. L city had its economic prosperity in the ancient times. Coming to modern times, however, its economy was very backward because of having been closed the region to international intercourse for a very long time. Since the implementation of the economic reform and open policy, the city has achieved a great progress in the economy while the pace of regional industrialization has been more rapid in the past decades. It is the typical example on the coastal open area of China. Therefore, it is necessary to study the problems of regions to garantee the continuous, steady and coordinated development of the regional economy in the future.
Quantitative Analysis of Inflation Issue in China
Xu Jie, Wan Xuemei, Yan Guangle
Abstract: It is no doubt that China is now facing a challenge of inflation: quick prices rising, over issued monetary, rapid growing total social demand and unsufficient production supply….
The present paper studies the inflation issue in China in terms of the macroeconomic theory of system dynamics, in order to find the fundamental causes and the self-promoting mechanism of inflation in China. In this paper, factors of total social demand, monetary issue, etc. have been qualitatively and quantitatively discussed, some policy tests have been made, and finally the new viewpoints and suggestions which help to cut down inflation are put forward. It is a new test to study inflation by system dynamics instead of by regression or curve fitting.
Government policy and planning
Abstract: Rapidly growing cities cause inadequate transformation in the use of land. Government policies tend to be obsolete shortly after implementation, supply of basic services becomes insufficient and expensive, and food prices tend to increase. All these factors are certainly the case in many developing countries where large amounts of population often migrate to settle down, sometimes in dangerous or unhealthy locations, but other times in areas suitable for agricultural purposes in the periphery of the city.
The land surrounding the metropolis enters a transitional stage. The territory becomes uneconomical for rural exploitation, but it requires to be supplied with basic services for urban housing. The System Dynamics approach is then appropriate to study and plan these unstable systems.
This paper presents a model to assess the growth of peripheral districts of the city. It is a useful aid for policy making in land use issues and a good tool for planning basic services such as health, schooling, transport and recreation.
A simulation is carried out for the Periurban District of El Corazon in Medellin, Columbia. A good approximation between historical data and model results can be appreciated. Some scenarios of future growth are explored and the consequence of land-use policies are confronted.
Energy Supply Modelling: The Case of the Cyclades
Th. Goumas, Ar. Papasavvas, D. V. Papaconstantinou
Abstract: The Cyclades, a group of over thirty dispersed islands in the middle of the Aegean Sea can become a case study for energy-driven regional development. High cost, low reliability and scarcity of energy have significantly contributed to the underdevelopment of the region. There is a lack of local conventional energy sources, but the potential of renewable energy sources, namely geothermal, wind and solar is many times greater than the region’s energy needs.
The Energy Policy Unit has constructed an Energy Plan for Cyclades up to the year 2000 concerning the development of local economic resources in connection with programmes promoting the exploitation of local energy potential. New energy investments, mainly in the renewables and energy saving options were examined in detail. For this reason, consistent alternative scenarios of energy supply, energy demand and economic growth were developed and assessed through an integrated modelling system. In this paper, the emphasis will be placed on the energy supply model.
A System-Dynamics Examination of the Effects of the Mahaweli-Project in Sri Lanka
Frank Lehmann, Thomas Lehner, Jürgen Beckmann
Abstract: The following System-Dynamics model simulates the effects of a development aid to a certain project on social and economic sectors in a development country.
The project, which has been started in 1980, treats the damming up of the Mahaweli-Ganga in Sri Lanka. The advantages of this great project can’t be assessed applying only classical measures of yield.
Using System-Dynamics it is possible to analyse the effects of the project on sectors like the labour market, agriculture and the budget of Sri Lanka and to discuss changes of the values in this fields.
An improvement of the values of the 4.5 billion US$ project would create the foundation for further investments.
Moreover, the effects from the building of hotels and possible direct investments of foreign enterprises in Sri Lanka are to consider,
A System Dynamics Model for National Energy Policy Planning
Roger F. Naill, Sharon D. Belanger
Abstract: The U.S. Energy system has been the subject of intense national interest and policy debate over the past two decades. During that time the U.S. has experienced a steady trend toward increased oil imports, two major oil embargoes, oil price shocks, and a series of government policy initiatives designed to reduce its vulnerability to oil supply disruptions: Project Independence, the National Energy Plan, and more recently oil and gas price deregulation.
Understanding the dynamics of the U.S. Energy system has been the focus of a decade-long System Dynamics modeling effort which began in 1972 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, continued at Dartmouth College, and is now centered at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The analytical focus of that effort is an integrated model of U.S. energy supply and demand called FOSSIL2, which is used to prepare projections for energy policy analysis in the Department of Energy’s Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis. This paper describes the conceptual development of the FOSSIL2 model, and its use in analyzing national energy policy issues.
Abstract: Apparently the electricity sector of Argentina has suffered in the past from excessive capacity planning, owing to overoptimistic forecasts of demand growth rate. But because of the long delays involved and lack of financial backing this advantage has been progressively lost. The present official planning only provides for renovation and demographic growth, not allowing for economic growth. Therefore, the actual supply-demand balance of electricity can easily be worn away by technical obsolescence and aging process of the actual installed capacity of electricity production.
The problem behaviour arises when the timing of new capacity investment is delayed, falling behind the programmed schedule of new plants, without being able to meet the electricity demand. This could happen mainly due to political prices well below costs because of the inflation and or social subsidization, which leads, in turn, to the discapitalization of the sector, that still remains nationalized. A system dynamics model is used to explore the trade-off between construction delays (which entails costs of unsatisfied demand) and construction speed up (which entails financial costs).
Abstract: The costs associated with liability in the United States are rising dramatically and persistently. Escalating medical malpractice premiums threaten the scope and availability of health care in many states. Increasing costs for automobile insurance have led to public referenda to cap premiums, in turn driving insurers out of practice in some states. Runaway litigation costs prompting calls for major revisions in liability stautes and the whole tort liability system.
Over the past two years, two independent system dynamics studies of the rising costs of liability insurance have been conducted. One study focused on forces driving rising settlement costs within a leading property and liability insurance provider. That study has resulted in a learning laboratory to help managers throughout the firm form a more systemic perspective on how established policies and practices within the firm might contribute to rising costs. The other study, done for the New York State Insurance Department looked at the problem of medical malpractice from a statewide regulatory perspective. It was designed to provide help to the state legislature in setting the state’s policy on rates over the next three years.
This paper assembles some of the work done in these two independent studies, reports on their findings, and discusses their policy implications. Of particular interest are implications of the internal and external system dynamics perspectives on the problem- where they agree, where they disagree and where they help illuminate each other.
Abstract: As for as we know there are relatively few examples of application of System Dynamics in the electric power Industry. Some of them are nonetheless of high interest. We can mention the program of the Bonneville Power Administration that had been presented in a previous Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Our purpose at Electricité de France was to scan the areas in which System Dynamics could be helpfull to our company.
A Study of Shanghai’s Industrial Structure
Qifan Wang, Tingchun Huang, Huimin Fu, Jinqua Qui
Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic behavior change of Shanghai’s industrial structure. Shanghai’s industry is facing a severe situation now. In one hand, the industry is required to make adjustments in its structure and distribution according to Shanghai economic development strategy; in the other hand, its ageing technology and structure of products, together with the shortage of energy and raw material, result in decline of profits in industrial enterprises and “landslip” of government revenue. Therefore, how to adjust the structure of Shanghai’s industry reasonably is becoming an urgent task. With the aid of industrial development history of western developed countries, this paper analyzes the reasonable development of industry from four aspects, creates a system dynamics model to simulate the dynamic change of city’s industrial structure and tests its validate. At last, the paper uses this model to analyze the trend of Shanghai industrial production and studies several problems in industrial economy, such as; selecting the leading industrial department of the city; allocating funds reasonably; using energy and raw material efficiently and affecting the technology, pollution and transportation on industry. In policy test, the paper proposes a series policies to authorities responsible for industry development for reference.
An Application of System Dynamics to the Research on the Strategy of Rural Development in Heilongjiang Province
Zhao Wen-Huang, Wang Hong-Bin, Gu Lin-Ming
Abstract: By means of a study in the application of System Dynamics theory and approach, a quantitative analysis of the coordinative development of the main agricultural productions in Heilongliang Province is made, constructing a simulation model of system dynamics which is composed of farming, forestry, animal husbandry fishery, land resoures and population.
The relationships between the various productions mentioned above, as well as between the internal variables within each production are correctly described in the model. Simulation analyses on the relationships between various productions and between the internal variables within each production, by using the model, are made and, at the same time, many programs which have advantages for the coordinative development of various productions result from these analyses.
Abstract: This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between transportation and other industries with system dynamics theory and method. We develop a system dynamics model to protray how the transportability influences other industries, and have made some computer simulation in which we simulated the dynamic characteristics of the system at different alternatives of investment.
In the simulation, we properly reduced the investment in heavy industry and increase the investment in transportation, while the total amount of the investment is the same. The output value of heavy industry didn’t decrease, on the contrary, it increased. At the same time, the output value of other industries and national income increased too. This indicates that the transportability directly influences the output value of other industries.
From the simulation result we also see that the investment in transportation of China is too small and this leads to the situation that the development of transportation can’t meet the demand of national economics in China.
This paper is a application example of how system dynamics is used to solve problems of social economics. This research will help people to know the importance of transportation in national economics and government to make policy.
Abstract: This model, composed of 12 subsystems and more than 220 equations, discusses various factors concerning water resource and the feedback relations of these factors. Through emulations of the different decision plans, it puts forward the most favorable plans for rational and economical exploitation of water resources, the improvement of water utilization ratio and the best use of water under the conditions of a sound ecological balance.
Abstract: This paper intends to explore the potential of the System Dynamics approach as a new auxiliary science for the historical analysis. To this end a portable DYNAMO-like package, called STEC, has been developed.
The paper, first, describes the peculiarities of the System Dynamics method as a tool for historical research, and gives an outline of the project; second, it argues that the scanty diffusion of System Dynamics might be due, among other factors, to the lack of public domain software; third, it asserts that the “old style” data processing (command line interface and batch mode) can prove itself still usable and fruitful; and last, it shows the STEC main features.
Non-Linear Dynamic Phenomena in Electron Transfer Devices
Rasmus Feldberg, Carsten Knudsen, Morten Hindsholm, Erik Mosekilde
Abstract: We have modeled the highly non-linear dynamic phenomena which arise in Gunn diodes by interaction between the internally generated domain mode and an external microwave signal. As the frequency of the microwave signal is changed, a devil’s staircase of frequency-locked oscillations develops, interspersed with quasiperiodic solutions. Period- doubling and other forms of mode-converting bifurcations can be seen in the interval of some of the steps. At higher microwave amplitudes, deterministic chaos arises. The transitions to delayed, quenched, and limited space charge accumulation modes are followed.
Rössler Bands in Economic and Biological Systems
B.G. Hald, C.N. Laugesen, C. Nielsen, E. Mosekilde, E. R. Larsen, J. Engelbrecht
Abstract: A Rössler band is presumably the simplest of all chaotic attractors. It can develop in systems with only three state variables if two of these produce an outward spiralling trajectory, and the third folds this trajectory back towards its center when the amplitude of the expanding oscillation becomes sufficiently large. In the present paper we show how Rössler bands can develop through slight modifications of well-established economic and biological models.
Creating System Dynamics Models Hierarchically Using SADT
M.B. Hommel, C. McGowan
Abstract: SADT™ (A trademark of SofTech, Inc.,Waltham, MA), a hierarchical system description notation, was used to create System Dynamics models. This paper discusses the two SADT model types, data and activity, and their correspondence with System Dynamics patterns. Rules for transforming an SADT data model to a System Dynamics model, semi-automatically, are proposed. This information is then used in a step by step translation from a SADT data model to a System Dynamics simulation model. An example is given showing how the SADT hierarchy enhances the understanding of the simulation model.
Andreas M. Klieinhans
Abstract: Knowledge-based modelling consists of qualitative models which are implemented in a hybrid, rule- and frame-oriented programming language. Qualitative models achieve flexible and detailed description of both the simulation entities and relationships. This paper presents a simulation expert system which is based on a multi-level representation scheme of causal diagrams. It offers a qualitative “presimulation”, that is conclusions about the sensitivity of the elements, the restrictions and the possible behaviour of the model. It enables explanation of the various implicit structural and dynamic relationships and the user to be guided to efficient quantitative simulation.
System Dynamics Simulation of Spatial Character
F. H. Sancar, S. Allenstein
Abstract: System Dynamics modeling has been applied to regional, urban, and community problem solving where critical policies are concerned with land-use controls. Representation of change in the spatial distribution and physical appearances of various activities have traditionally been achieved by modeling these as transfers between relatively homogeneous sub-area sectors. Due to lack of capabilities for direct representation of System Dynamics modeling has received little attention in environmental and city planning practice. In this paper, we describe the main components of a methodology to make System Dynamics modeling more integral in planning and design for community development, also including spatial representation.
Chaos Study in System Dynamics
Qifan Wang, Zhiping Yao, Guangle Yan
Abstract: Based on our study of synergetics and dissipative structure theory, by means of mathematics, in terms of the viewpoint of system dynamics, this paper concentrates on the study of chaos in system dynamics: we analyze the nature of chaos phenomenon and the characteristics of system dynamics, put forward the viewpoint that chaos testing should be included in model testing of S. D.; we investigate several necessary conditions of chaos; we create a model to question a famous sufficient condition of chaos; then, we shed some light on the way toward which chaos will occur. At last, we successfully apply our theoretic study to a standard nuclear spin generator model.
Improving Insight and Understanding by Optimising System Dynamics
Eric F. Wolstenholme, Sattar A. Al-Alusi
Abstract: This paper will outline the concept of system dynamics optimisation using the DYSMOD software and present a case study of its use to analyse a defence problem. The insights into the problem, which were generated from a conventional system dynamics model and its policy design experiments, will be given. This will be followed by the presentation of results from a set of optimisation experiments, utilising a range of objective functions and structural design parameters. The paper will focus on the value added to the understanding of the problem which resulted from this process. The overall conclusion is that optimisation subsumes conventional sensitivity analysis as well as providing an holistic interpretation of the behaviour of a system dynamics model.
Technology & project management
Abstract: Taking Shanghai as an example, we have studied qualitatively and quantitatively the problems concerned with the coordinated development of the R&D and socio-economy for a typical large city in China. In this paper we first discuss some theoretical problems concerned with the coordinated development, then using the approach of system analysis to investigate the typical phenomena characterizing the imbalances of the development and the main reasons (constraints) which have caused these imbalances. And then we outline our main framework and ideas of the “System Dynamics Model for the Coordinated Development of R&D and Socio-economy”, illustrate the main strategy spectrum analyses and policy tests conducted on the model, and present the main conclusions and policy recommendations.
The Coordinative Development Between R&D and Tech-Acquisition in China
Quingri Xu, Keyie Jin
Abstract: This paper studies the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition in the industrialization process of China, dealing with the mechanism of interaction between R&D and tech-acquisition. It also deals with the mechanism of limited resources allocation in capital investment to R&D and tech-acquisition areas. A system dynamics model about the coordinative development of R&D and tech-acquisition is developed.
Abstract: Based on the mechanism of interaction among R&D, technological progress, the change of industrial structure, and economic growth in both supply and demand sides, and with the help of dynamic input-output analysis, in this paper a system dynamics model is constructed, focusing on the notable impacts of technological change on structural change in the Chinese economy. Through modelling and policy analysis,some new findings and patterns of long-term development, including the preferential consequences and opportunity for industrial development, future prospects for China’s S&T and economy during the next fifty years, the evolution of industrial structure in the process of industrialization, and resource allocation to different industries and R&D expenditure allocation, are obtained.
War, peace & conflict management
Abstract: This paper demonstrates the use of System Dynamics as a device to simulate a system of infantry and artillery cooperating in joint combat operation.
The system under study does not represent a real or actual battle-field. The model represents a scenario describes hypothetical system of accepted theoretical structure of how infantry and artillery may co-operate in order to achieve a desired advance on a real battle-field.
The paper will give attention to the planning and controlling of any need to such co-operation, and will give better insights to decision makers before and during such joint operations.
We make no claim for revealing analysis of any army strategy, and seek only to show how a System Dynamics model could do if it were constructed by people who fully understood the problems and had access to information at which we can only make guesses.
System Dynamics and Defence Analysis
R. G. Coyle
Abstract: Operational Research (OR) had its origins in the need to make decisions about the use of resources in support of national defence. The specific case was the invention of radar in the late 1930’s and the military problem was to decide how this new technology could best be employed, in conjunction with the existing assets, such as fighter aircraft, for the air defence of the United Kingdom. It was, in short, necessary to conduct research into how military operations could be carried out, and hence the discipline was born. In fact, for the last 50 years, the military have been the major users of mathematical modelling. System Dynamics is, however, a relatively new tool in military analysis. This paper surveys a few published applications and suggests reasons why SD is particularly appropriate for certain classes of military problems. The paper then goes on to discuss the potential role of SD in the analysis of strategic problems. Finally, some problems of military theory are discussed.
System Dynamics Modeling of Air Warfare
Donald R. Drew, Antonio A. Trani, Lev A. Malakhoff
Abstract: The use of gaming to study contemporary warfare has evolved rapidly in recent years. Particularly important strides were taken during the 1960’s and 1970’s with advances in computer technology and the development of broader ranges of subject matter. The past two decades have seen a tremendous expansion in the role and influence of computer models as “policy assisting” devices – first in the analysis of national security issues, and now for the analysis of problems arising throughout the entire affairs of Government.
The Origins of Mass Warfare: A System Dynamics Approach
Edward T. Richards
Abstract: People of different nations often meet with the intent of destroying each other with the technology and techniques of modern warfare. This has come to be the reality of modern politics. Yet mass warfare has not been a permanent fixture throughout the history of mankind. In this paper, an attempt is made to gain a better understanding of what caused the transition from localized tribal feuding.
Abstract: This paper reports findings of experiments with a system dynamics model of resource allocation in the political system of a developing country. Political patterns resulting from various assumptions about government attitudes are examined with respect to empirical evidence about these. The analysis helps to understand circular cause and effect relationships that shape internal trends affecting the government’s commitment to economic development agenda and its ability to resolve political conflict generated over the course of implementation of this agenda.
Gaming to Implement System Dynamics Models
Abstract: Operational games based on System Dynamics models have been used in System Dynamics teaching since the first days of the field. Already in the text Problems in a Industrial Dynamics (D. Packer, MIT Press, 1962) was described the simple production distribution exercise, widely known as “the beer game.” This game is so effective that it has been used in almost every introductory System Dynamics course over the past thirty years. Nevertheless, until the early 1980s there were essentially no further efforts to develop and use System Dynamics games, except for a few management-training exercises developed by consulting companies.
Water Resources Development Planning
Ali N. Mashayekhi
Abstract: Water resource development requires development and operation of expensive facilities. Planning, design, and execution of water resource projects in Iran have been taking a period of time much longer than what is considered as a normal time. In addition, the projects are costing much more than normal. This paper presents a system dynamics model to analyze the behavior of the water resource development system. The paper shows that high cost and long construction time are results of policies that govern decisions related to budget allocation, start of new projects and price of water. The paper shows that how alternative policies could improve the behavior of the system. It is argued that appropriate planning approach for water resource development should consider the feedback mechanism in the water resource development system and concentrate on design policies that control the behavior of the system through those feedback loops.
last updated by ng on 11/25/08