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Texas Investigates Antibiotic Resistance with System Dynamics

Nov 5, 2020 | Cases, Health Policy

Many common bacterial pathogens have become increasingly resistant to the antibiotics used to treat them. The evidence suggests that the essential cause of the problem is the extensive and often inappropriate use of antibiotics, a practice that encourages the proliferation of resistant mutant strains of bacteria while suppressing the susceptible strains.

However, it is not clear to what extent antibiotic use must be reduced to avoid or reverse an epidemic of antibiotic resistance, and how early the interventions must be made to be effective.

 

To investigate these questions, we have developed a small system dynamics model that portrays changes over a period of years to three subsets of a bacterial population – antibiotic-susceptible, intermediately resistant, and highly resistant.  The details and continuing refinement of this model are based on a case study of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of illness and death worldwide.

Client Texas Department of Health
Authors/Consultants Homer J, Ritchie-Dunham J, Rabbino H, Puente L, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K

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Publication

Homer J, Ritchie-Dunham J, Rabbino H, Puente L, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K. Toward a Dynamic Theory of Antibiotic ResistanceSystem Dynamics Review, 16(4): 287-319, 2000.

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Upcoming Events

System Dynamics Poster Symposium at Dartmouth College

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OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

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Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Upcoming Events

System Dynamics Poster Symposium at Dartmouth College

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Join the students for the culminating event of the System Dynamics in Policy Design and Analysis course at Dartmouth College, where they will showcase their innovative work. This symposium marks the completion of their winter term and features 26 students presenting...