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Texas Investigates Antibiotic Resistance with System Dynamics

Nov 5, 2020 | Cases, Health Policy

Many common bacterial pathogens have become increasingly resistant to the antibiotics used to treat them. The evidence suggests that the essential cause of the problem is the extensive and often inappropriate use of antibiotics, a practice that encourages the proliferation of resistant mutant strains of bacteria while suppressing the susceptible strains.

However, it is not clear to what extent antibiotic use must be reduced to avoid or reverse an epidemic of antibiotic resistance, and how early the interventions must be made to be effective.

 

To investigate these questions, we have developed a small system dynamics model that portrays changes over a period of years to three subsets of a bacterial population – antibiotic-susceptible, intermediately resistant, and highly resistant.  The details and continuing refinement of this model are based on a case study of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of illness and death worldwide.

Client Texas Department of Health
Authors/Consultants Homer J, Ritchie-Dunham J, Rabbino H, Puente L, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K

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Publication

Homer J, Ritchie-Dunham J, Rabbino H, Puente L, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K. Toward a Dynamic Theory of Antibiotic ResistanceSystem Dynamics Review, 16(4): 287-319, 2000.

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OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

A Design Value Calculator: A System Dynamics Boardgame

A Design Value Calculator: A System Dynamics Boardgame EXECUTIVE Summary Product design is a specific form of complex innovation that touches all areas of an organization’s management. While entrepreneurs recognise the value of design, they often tend to focus...

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Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

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Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

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New to system dynamics? Want to learn in a controlled, but competitive environment? Join the South African Chapter in our SD Learning Lab Journey. In session 1 and 2 (Event 1) we build a case study model together. The purpose of the case study model is for you to...