Placeholder canvas
Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
Search in posts
Search in pages

Go Home

GM Creates the Telematics Industry Using System Dynamics

The Official Website

onstar.com is the official website in which you can become a member, get familiar with the services and purchase a plan.

The Issue You Tackled

In 1997, General Motors (GM) assembled a project team to develop its OnStar telematics business. Telematics is the provision of communications services to cars, including crash notification, navigation, Internet access, and traffic information. OnStar is GM’s two-way vehicle communication system that provides a variety of services that enhance safety, security, entertainment, and productivity. At the time, GM faced fundamental strategic decisions with respect to OnStar. The default and safe strategy was to market OnStar as a car feature that would improve vehicle safety and security. An alternate strategy was to view OnStar as a service business that could contribute greatly to GM’s profits.

What You Actually Did

GM formed a project team to consider alternative strategies for OnStar. GM makes important strategic decisions through the dialogue decision process, in which the project team interacts with the decision board that is responsible for actually making the decision and committing resources. Dynamic modeling can be a part of this process.

In this case, application of modeling was difficult. In the vehicle business, GM has decades of experience and plentiful historical data. Modelers can build on a wealth of previous analyses and examples of best practice. The OnStar business was very different in that the telematics market did not exist. To cope with the inherent uncertainty, we needed a modeling process that would allow integration of various methods and data sources. A simulation model was our core tool in the OnStar strategy project. The final model had six key sectors: customer acquisition, customer choice, alliances, customer service, finances, and dealer behavior.

In late 1997, the project team recommended a very aggressive strategy that included installation on all GM vehicles, recruitment of other manufacturers into the OnStar system, making the first year of service free and aggressively pursuing alliances with content partners.

The Results

Through 2001, the implementation of the OnStar business strategy has progressed very much as expected. The project contributed to creating a new enterprise mental model for GM, in which the transactions revenue is augmented with a stream of revenue from service businesses like OnStar. The OnStar project also created the new telematics business which did not exist before GM implemented its strategy. Today, Wall Street analysts project that the industry will grow to $12 billion over the next 10 years. By far, OnStar’s most important contribution is saving lives. OnStar answers thousands of emergency calls each month and has often made the difference between life and death.

Name The General Motors OnStar Project
Modelers Vince BarabbaChet Huber, Fred Cooke, Nick Pudar, Jim Smith, Mark Paich
Client General Motors
Client Type Corporation

Do you want to know more?

Publications

A multimethod approach for creating new business models: the General Motors OnStar project Download

Did You Know?

System Dynamics Application Award

The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. In 2007, the Society awarded its first Applications Award to Vince Barabba, Chet Huber, Fred Cooke, Nick Pudar, Jim Smith, and Mark Paich for their work A Multimethod Approach for Creating New Business Models: The General Motors OnStar Project.

To see the citation that was made by James Lyneis at the conference, please follow this link(Jul 2007)

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Upcoming Events

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Join us

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Upcoming Events

Fluor Avoids Costly Project Changes Saving $1.3bn

Fluor saves $1.3 billion in System Dynamics-based project management.

#United States #Engineering #Fluor #Corporation

CLIENT: FLUOR

Fluor is one of the world’s largest engineering and construction firms, with 2008 revenues over $20 billion. The US-based firm operates in every major business sector and geography.

CHALLENGE: CHANGES DON’T IMPROVE PROJECTS, QUITE THE OPPOSITE

A large part of Fluor’s work is organized in the form of projects, which are typically market-driven with aggressive cost and schedule targets and evolving client needs. It is the tension among these different objectives that is often the underlying dynamic for generating changes on projects. In an initiative by Fluor’s Chairman, a comprehensive quantitative review examined all Fluor projects over several years. For many in the industry, there is a misperception that contractors improve their performance with more changes. This company-wide review was unequivocal in refuting that notion. There is a clear, unambiguous relation between the level of changes and the cost and schedule performance of projects: more changes bring ever-worsening performance on projects.

ACTION: FLEXIBLE SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL TO PROJECT COST OF CHANGES

After Fluor had identified and quantified the business need for improving the practice of project change management, two external consultants first built and piloted and validated a project model to assess change impacts on several initial projects. In the four years since then, the model has been used in the “Change Impact Assessment” system to conduct thousands of analyses on over 100 client projects. Fluor projects analyzed with this model range in size from less than million to more than billion.

The system rapidly tailors a model to simulate each engineering and construction project. Each model is then used to foresee future cost and schedule impacts of project changes, and most important, test ways to avoid the impacts.

We developed a project model based on our prior modeling work with Fluor, and built a system around it, with defined practices to rapidly and automatically tailor the model to a specific project. We set up an interface to allow dozens of trained company users to test proactively project-wide impacts of proposed design or scope changes.

We conducted worldwide training of executives and managers and analysts, ensuring the focus was on foreseeing and mitigating future change impacts. The system was applied to hundreds of Fluor projects.

RESULTS: COST REDUCTION OF $1.3 BILLION

A cultural change occurred in the company, focused on proactive mitigating efforts that reduce change impacts on the projects.As a result, many disputes were avoided (some had cost tens of millions of dollars), and cost impacts were reduced by proactive actions identified in the analyses, amounting to over $1.3 billion savings to Fluor and their clients.

LEARN MORE

System Dynamics modelers: Kenneth Cooper and Gregory Lee

AWARDS & PUBLICATIONS

Award: In 2009, the Society awarded its System Dynamics Applications Award to Kenneth Cooper and Gregory Lee for their work Managing the Dynamics of Projects and Changes at Fluor. See conference slides and citation.

Article: Managing the Dynamics of Projects and Changes at Fluor

 

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Upcoming Events

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Join us

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Upcoming Events

US Communities Take Control of Local Health System

The Official Website

rethinkhealth.org is the official website that covers all information about this project including the latest news, simulators and learning tools, videos, etc.

The American Health System is broken. Expenditures on health are increasing rapidly and have outstripped most other countries on a per capita basis. At the same time, health outcomes are not in line with spending.

On most measures (including life expectancy at birth in Fig. 1), our nation’s health is far worse than projected based upon expected results under equivalent spending levels in other developed countries.

ReThink 5

Figure 1.  Life Expectancy versus Health Spending per Capita by Country. Source:  Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Data from OECD Health Data 2011; World Bank and national sources for non-OECD countries.

In recent years, significant efforts and resources have been dedicated at the federal, state, and local level to try to remedy this poor performance. Some headway has been made, but to experience true change to our massive and complex health system, we will need to think bigger and differently about our approach to national health—to think more systemically.

System Dynamics and Modeling Offer Insight for Effective Change

ReThink Health (RTH), a collaborative initiative of the Rippel Foundation, is encouraging this innovative thinking.  RTH has invested several million dollars over the past four years[1] developing and disseminating the ReThink Health Dynamics Model, a System Dynamics simulation tool that replicates the behavior of a regional health system.  It was developed in the Vensim simulation software with online hosting and user interface design by Forio Simulation. The model was developed by RTH’s award winning team of MIT-trained system modelers including Jack Homer, Gary Hirsch, and John Sterman with the oversight of Bobby Milstein and the help of a large number of collaborators. RTH has built a version of the model based on U.S. national data to represent an average American town.  This Anytown configuration is freely available online and has been used by thousands of leaders, as well as dozens of academic programs at major colleges and universities, including Dartmouth, MIT, Columbia, and SUNY Albany.

In addition to the Anytown Model, RTH has  configured the model with data reflecting the particular characteristics of ten regions to date (including Atlanta, GA; Cincinnati, OH; and Pueblo, CO). In these communities, the model has been used in multi-stakeholder meetings to align thinking, develop sound strategies, shift resources, and catalyze action.

The Model allows local leaders and stakeholders to immediately evaluate proposed strategies  for improving their local health systems. The model incorporates evidence on the cost and effectiveness and timing of more than a dozen initiatives which range from upstream efforts to protect population health to downstream efforts to reduce healthcare costs, improve quality of care, and increase workforce capacity to meet the demand for care, as seen in Figure 2.

ReThink 4

Figure 2.  Intervention Options for Simulation Scenarios. Reprinted with permission of ReThink Health.

The model also accounts for program funding—often a harsh reality in any health reform endeavor. Users begin with an initial program budget and can explore scenarios with that as a practical constraint. They may also consider options to move beyond conventional program financing, for example, by negotiating agreements to reinvest a fraction of any healthcare cost savings in order to extend or even expand program funding over time.

Users also have the ability to alter a variety of wider trends, such as the extent of insurance expansion  under the  Affordable Care Act, as well as all assumptions about about intervention impacts, costs, and time delays.

After users input their proposed initiative combinations, the simulator will play out the likely results over 25 years—giving almost instantaneous feedback on the expected effects across more than 200 metrics of population health, healthcare costs, population health, quality of care, social equity, workforce productivity, program spending, and return-on-investment.   Users can easily compare results by testing alternative scenarios to find a combination that best achieves their goals with acceptable tradeoffs, under specific financial constraints, and taking into account realistic conditions in the region.

Facilitating Change With Simulation Modeling

Organizational change, in general, is fraught with difficulty. And, in an arena as complex as the American health system, change can be extraordinarily expensive and slow, if it occurs at all. Reformers often waste resources on ineffective initiatives. Or they aim too low. Or they run out of money before seeing the full effects of their investments. According to the ReThink Health website, the model was “designed to help groups overcome those challenges, to better understand what is possible, and to develop targeted strategies to achieve lasting system-wide goals.”

Rethink Health projects that if regions throughout the nation were to collectively shift investment and focus resources to implement sound strategies identified in the model[2], the American Health System could save a cumulative[3] $7 trillion in health care costs over the next 25 years while simultaneously avoiding premature death for 8 million people, increasing workforce productivity by $7 trillion, and reducing the inequality gap by more than 25%. An effort this ambitious will require the coordinated effort of many. Interactive simulation modeling is a key component of ReThink Health’s overall efforts to foster broad-based stewardship, sound strategy, and sustainable financing for regional health reform.

There is a growing body of evidence showing that the ReThink Health Model and other tools can support these goals. Below is a summary of some noteworthy early effects.

Bringing Big Data Together in an Easy to Use Decision Making Tool

Local health data and research about the effectiveness of initiatives that will improve the health system is abundant.  The massive quantity of data makes it difficult for decision makers to evaluate and focus on the small number of initiatives that will make the most difference.  The tendency, in the face of this, is to try to do everything.  And a little bit of everything is what is being done in most communities.

The ReThink Health Dynamics Model integrates dozens of separate data sources and diverse literatures into a single calculator (see Fig. 3), which allows people to estimate and compare the potential impact of proposed solutions in the face of realistic funding limitations. The model allows conversations and decisions to be based on the evidence.  It allows communities to focus together on the most effective combinations of initiatives to achieve their goals in the face of budget realities.

ReThink 3

Figure 3.  Combining Evidence (Reprinted with permission of ReThink Health)

Local Calibration puts Powerful Tools Within Reach

The Model is designed to represent particular features of the health system in a given location through a streamlined process of local data gathering and calibration. Therefore, even smaller cities can create a powerful analytical tool that reflects their own region as best as possible. For approximately $50,000, the average cost to produce a new calibration, small communities like Pueblo, CO can access a sophisticated, multi-million dollar simulator that uses local data to engage local leaders in setting strategic priorities for their region. This is something that most communities would not be able to afford to do from scratch.

Visualizing Big Picture Results

According to Christine-Nevin Woods, former Director of the Pueblo City-County Health Department, “ReThink Health modeling opened our eyes.  It offered perspectives on big impact changes that might not pay off right away .”

In many cases, individuals and organizations who work in silos are limited in their perspective by small budgets and adjust their priorities accordingly. They often avoid the more expensive and more effective initiatives, as a result. By bringing together broad stakeholder groups, ReThink Health allows people to consider the power of collective action. And this lets them begin to explore what could be accomplished with more targeted funding and shared priorities.

While many groups are initially satisfied with the results of their first run in the model, they soon realize that there is far more potential for improvements in both health and economic outcomes.   Once regional leaders are awakened to the possibilities, they frequently expand their aspirations and to think bigger and more strategically about their role as stewards of a common health system. The Atlanta Regional Collaborative for Health Improvement (“ARCHI”) and other ReThinkers, for example, are currently working on an ambitious plan to shift priorities in their regions to those identified as effective in the ReThink Health Dynamics Model.  ARCHI’s efforts are described in more detail in a blog by Susan Dentzer and in the ARCHI Playbook that defines their stategic focus.

ReThink 6

Figure 4.  The Possibilities for Health Reform. Source: Model results from the ReThink Health USA Model reprinted with Permission of ReThink Health.

Driving Rapid Strategy Alignment

Changing the health system will require a coordinated effort and effective alignment of resources for true collective impact. Achieving alignment is made more difficult when different stakeholders see only part of the picture. With the aid of the model, discussions in multi-stakeholder meetings are based on data, as well as a shared view of a common health system. The ability to immediately test proposals can help people to improve their understanding and change their minds. This often reveals greater consensus and supports more efficient efforts to agree on a practical course of action.

This consensus-building power has been demonstrated over and over again in brief facilitated multi-stakeholder experiences with the Model. According to Eileen Dennis, member of the Pueblo County Board of Health, “Working with the Model built consensus around common issues that will enable us to have collective impact. We have now built a new organization and implementation plan around the model experience and attracted significant local and foundation support.” This support included $706,000 in backbone funding to support their strategic efforts to implement the strategies identified in the model.

And in Atlanta, a group of 70 stakeholders representing diverse viewpoints (including hospital administrators, public health officials, philanthropies, healthcare professionals, insurers, business, and clergy) met for 5 hours and achieved consensus that has endured for the past several years. This included individual shifts in focus on a smaller, shared number of initiatives (Fig. 5), as well as, overwhelming agreement around one scenario generated during the session (Fig. 6).

ReThink 2

Figure 5.   Shifting priorities resulting from Strategy Lab in Atlanta, GA. Reprinted with permission of ReThink Health.

According to Karen Minyard, Executive Director of the Georgia Health Policy Center, “ReThink Health modeling helped people discover surprisingly strong areas of consensus. It helped us through a step where we might otherwise have gotten stuck.”

According to Jane Bramscomb, Senior Research Associate at the Georgia Health Policy Center, “The exercise got leaders with very different backgrounds and interests thinking collaboratively about the system. They shared their ideas about what’s needed for progress in Atlanta and were able almost instantly to see the long-term implications of their assumptions. When one particular combination of actions rose well above the others on nearly every metric, it gave the whole group a strong sense of hope for the future and agreement about how to move forward together.”

ReThink 1

Figure 6.  Polling result from Strategy Lab held in Atlanta, GA. Reprinted with permission of ReThink Health.

Shifting Investment Priorities

The use of the model in diverse settings with local decision makers has resulted in substantial shifting of funding priorities. Several communities, including Atlanta, GA, Pueblo, CO, Cincinnati, OH, and Greater Monadnock, NH are in the throes of implementation and it is expected that additional shifts will take place as local strategy implementation matures. A few documented examples of commitments to shift based on the Model analytics are outlined below:

  • In Atlanta, the United Way shifted the priorities for an RFP for $3.6 million in spending and local hospitals committed to redirect community benefit dollars towards initiatives identified in a modeling session.
  • At the Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, the board shifted approximately $11 million from conventional investments in stocks and bonds to local population health innovation fund as the result of Model analysis that suggested a higher return on investment over time.

Attracting Ongoing Funding Support for ReThink Health

The Model also serves as a powerful tool for ReThink Health to garner support for its broader work.  The Model is a tangible product that excites the interest of funders. It also provides clear evidence for a theory of change that is specific about the potential for system improvement and expected return on investment. All of this serves to strengthen the value proposition for strategies that might yield greater leverage. Below are a few examples of funding that was received by ReThink Health in large part due to the existence of the model:

  • The Rippel Foundation, has dedicated the vast majority of their annual funding, in excess of $4 million per year, to support the ReThink Health Initiative.
  • The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation has invested approximately $6.2 million with ReThink Health to focus attention on primary leverage points that surface repeatedly in modeling sessions across the country, including efforts to better balance health and health care, foster broad-based stewardship, assure sustainable financing, and practice inclusive business planning for health.
  • Users in academic institutions and other organizations are paying user fees and facilitation costs for tools that help them better incorporate the Model in their curricula. This allows ReThink Health to support ongoing development of the model and its supporting documentation.

According to Laura Landy, President and CEO of the Rippel Foundation, “Regional stewardship groups are attracted to the ReThink Health Model because it helps to show them that a healthier future is within reach. By working with the Model and with each other, teams are motivated to develop a strategy that catalyzes regional health reform.”

System Dynamics Models Act as Mechanism for Change

System Dynamics simulation tools, like the ReThink Health Dynamics Model, can be powerful catalysts for change. Experiential, computer-based  learning that brings the power of evidence to strategic decision making. Both grassroots organizations and senior executives can engage with the model, and with each other, to identify more effective strategies, and align resources to drive implementation.

As Anne Weiss of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation stated, “The Model creates an experiential, evidence-based approach to raising big issues, entering into challenging conversations, and providing new insights. It has the power to cross and move cultures, creating the opportunity for really productive dialogue and action.”


 

[1]Additional resources had been invested in the tool prior to that by The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the form of the Healthbound, a model for health policy testing at the national level.

[2]These tend to include a combination of downstream cost cutting (like care coordination) with substantial investment in the upstream (like healthy behaviors and programs to lift people out of poverty) funded through an innovative scheme to capture and reinvest savings back into efforts and supercharged by a shift from a fee-for-service payment model to a system in which doctors are paid per capita for ensuring the health of their patients.

[3] From the start of the simulation in 2015 to the end in 2040.

Do you want to know more?

Modelers Jack HomerGary B. HirschBobby Milstein, and Elliott S. Fisher
Client/Participant Fannie E. Rippel Foundation (New Jersey)

ReThink Health: Simulation models supporting local solutions to a national problem (October 29, 2013)

Presented by Jack Homer, Owner, Homer Consulting

Presentation slides: ReThink Health slides

Description: In this video, Jack Homer presents ReThink Health, a model-based approach to understanding health at the community level that has featured prominently in our last two conferences. The ReThink Health webinar is an opportunity to introduce new people to System Dynamics. If you have friends or colleagues interested in health and health care let them know. It promises to be interesting and informative. This webinar is one of the Big Data, System Dynamics, and XMILE webinar series jointly sponsored by IBM, isee systems, and the OASIS XMILE Technical Committee.

ReThink Health Dynamics Model Blog and Use Cases

Blog devoted to lessons of the ReThink Health Dynamics Model, plus descriptions of how the model has been used with health leaders in several local places around the US.

   

 

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Upcoming Events

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Join us

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Upcoming Events

How to Understand Climate Change Policies with C-ROADS

The Dynamics of Climate Change: Understanding and influencing the planet’s future (October 8, 2013)

Presented by Andrew Jones, Co-Director, Climate Interactive

Presentation slides: Dynamics of Climate Change slides

Description: Learn how world leaders are using C-ROADS in global climate negotiations C-ROADS is an award-winning computer simulation that helps people understand the long-term climate impacts of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. World leaders are using the model in global climate negotiations. In this interactive session, Andrew Jones, Co-Director of Climate Interactive, introduces participants to C-ROADS and describes how it can be used by others to understand and test their own scenarios or conduct real-time policy analysis. This webinar is the first in the Big Data, System Dynamics, and XMILE webinar series jointly sponsored by IBM, isee systems, and the OASIS XMILE Technical Committee.

The Official Website

climateinteractive.org is the official website that covers all information about this brilliant project including the latest news, simulators and learning tools, videos, etc.

The Issue You Tackled

Negotiations have failed even though scientific understanding of climate change and the risks it poses ha s never been stronger. The failure of global negotiations can be traced to the gap between the strong scientific consensus on the risks of climate change and widespread confusion, complacency and denial among policymakers, the media and the public.

What You Actually Did

The C-ROADS model is designed to address these issues and build shared understanding of climate dynamics in a way that is solidly grounded in the best available science and rigorously non-partisan, yet understandable by and useful to non-specialists, from policymakers to the public.

The Results

C-ROADS:

  • tracks GHGs, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, halocarbons, aerosols and black carbon;

  • distinguishes emissions from fossil fuels and from land use and forestry policies;

  • allows users to select different business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios, or to define their own;

  • enables users to capture any emissions reduction scenario for each nation portrayed;

  • reports the resulting GHG concentrations, global mean temperature change, sea-level rise, ocean pH, per capita emissions and cumulative emissions;

  • allows users to assess the impact of uncertainty in key climate processes;

How to Work With The Model?

Video tutorials are available online to guide use

Name Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support
Modelers John StermanThomas FiddamanTravis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin, and Lori Siegel
Model To get the model, please follow this link.
Client/Participant Please click here.
Client Type NGO

Do you want to know more?

Related Publications

Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model. Download
Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations Download
Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world Download
The Climate Scoreboard shows the progress that national contributions (INDCs) to the UN climate negotiations will make assuming no further action after the end of the country’s pledge period (2025 or 2030). Scoreboard
World climate: a role-play simulation of climate negotiations Download

  

A Big Boost for the Climate Summit

An editorial in the New York Times about the climate summit in Paris, mentions C-ROADS team analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). Please follow this link to read this article in the NYT.

Offers for Paris Climate Talks Would Reduce Warming by 1°C

Climate Interactive’s Climate Scoreboard analysis, produced in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management (MIT Sloan), shows that the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) put forward in advance of the UN climate talks this December make a sizeable contribution towards curbing global emissions and limiting warming. However, the offers need to be paired with further action if warming is to be kept below the 2°C target, avoiding the worst impacts of catastrophic climate change. Please see the full news release of their new analysis of the expected impact of the emissions pledges nations have made in the run up to Paris. The climate scoreboard is an embeddable widget that people can embed on their sites, blogs, etc. and will automatically update as analysis is revised when new pledges come in. The New York Times and in Science Magazine Science Insider (dated September 28, 2015) have pick up this story so far.

Climate Interactive announced the World Climate Project at a Back-to-School Climate Education Event at the White House.

The World Climate Exercise is a role-playing simulation game that puts teams, classrooms, and communities into the role of international climate negotiators to create a pathway to solutions that limit global warming. Through these simulation games, Climate Interactive plans to reach more than 10,000 people by December 2015, when nations will come together to finalize a global agreement on climate change in Paris. (Aug 2015)

Professor John Sterman and Climate Interactive featured in film “Disruption”

The film Disruption features incredible and informative interviews from scientists, activists and leaders—including Climate Interactive partner John Sterman of MIT. The film was released in advance of the People’s Climate March, the largest climate march in history, in the streets of New York City on September 21, 2014. (September 2014)

System Dynamics Application Award

The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2013 Applications Award to John Sterman, Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin and Lori Siegel for their work Climate Interactive: The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model. To see the citation that was made by Brad Morisson at the conference, please follow this link(Jul 2013)

Professor John Sterman wrote an article in Climate Progress

It’s a great short article by John Sterman articulating why it is crucial to “hold our feet to the fire” WRT +2C maximum global warming target (i.e., to promote carbon emissions mitigation), while being careful, skeptical and perhaps even averse to climate resilience initiatives (i.e., to avoid engaging in adaptation to climate change). This article is contemporary, and more relevant as each day passes by without a global commitment to limit climate damage to a level that adaptation becomes pertinent. Please follow this link to find the article. (Jul 2013)

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Upcoming Events

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Join us

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Upcoming Events

CDC Provides Tools for Communities to Tackle Chronic Disease

The Issue You Tackled

At least 70% of deaths among Americans each year are from chronic diseases, and their direct and indirect costs are more than 1 trillion dollars per year. Governmental health agencies are in a position to promote strategies to prevent and manage chronic disease, but identifying the most effective and economical strategies is often difficult. To help health agencies better plan and evaluate interventions, the CDC and the NHLBI funded the creation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).

What You Actually Did

PRISM is a relatively large System Dynamics model that is used to simulate trajectories for health and cost outcomes for the entire U.S. population from 1990 to 2040, and has also been applied to represent other national and local populations. Interventions are in several broad areas: medical care, smoking, nutrition and weight loss, physical activity, emotional distress, and particulate air pollution. These interventions act through a range of channels such as access, price, promotion, and regulation. The diseases and conditions modeled in detail include heart disease, stroke, diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, and obesity, and the model also accounts for cancers and respiratory diseases related to smoking, obesity, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity.

The Results

The model reports summary measures of mortality and years of life lost as well as the consequent medical and productivity costs of the chronic diseases and conditions modeled. Local and federal health officials have used PRISM throughout its development, and its applications continue to grow in number and variety.

Name Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM)
Modelers Jack HomerKristina WileGary HirschJustin Trogdon, Amanda Honeycutt, Bobby Milstein, Diane Orenstein, and Lawton Cooper
Client/Participant Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI)
Client Type Government

Do you want to know more?

Related Publications

Using simulation to compare established and emerging interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risks in the United States. Download
Using simulation to compare 4 categories of intervention for reducing cardiovascular disease risks. Download
From model to action: using a System Dynamics model of chronic disease risks to align community action. Download
A ‘whole of system’ approach to compare options for CVD interventions in counties Manukau. Download
Proceedings from the workshop on estimating the contributions of Sodium reduction to preventable death. Download
A System Dynamics model for planning cardiovascular disease interventions. Download
Simulating and evaluating local interventions to improve cardiovascular health. Download
Modeling the local dynamics of cardiovascular health: risk factors, context, and capacity. Download

Did You Know?

System Dynamics Application Award

The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2011 Applications Award to Jack Homer, Kristina Wile, Gary Hirsch, Justin Trogdon, Amanda Honeycutt, Bobby Milstein, Diane Orenstein and Lawton Cooper for their work Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) for Chronic Disease Policymaking. To see the citation that was made by James Lyneis, please follow this link. To see the slides that were used in the 2011 ISDC, please click here(Jul 2011)

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Upcoming Events

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Join us

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Upcoming Events

Mayo Clinic Saves $2M by Thinking Differently About Dosing Regimens

The Issue You Tackled

To determine the value of a biomedical System Dynamics (BMSD) approach for optimization of anemia management in long-term hemodialysis patients because elevated hemoglobin levels and high doses of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) may negatively affect survival in this population.

What You Actually Did

A model of erythropoiesis and its response to ESAs on the basis of a BMSD method (Mayo Clinic Anemia Management System [MCAMS]) was developed. Thereafter, an open-label, prospective, nonrandomized practice quality improvement project was performed with retrospective analysis in 8 community-based outpatient hemodialysis facilities. All prevalent hemodialysis patients seen from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2010 (300-342 patients per month), were included with darbepoetin as the ESA. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients who attained the desired hemoglobin level. Secondary outcome measures included the percentage of patients with hemoglobin values above the desired range and mean dose of darbepoetin used.

The Results

The 3 treatment periods were (1) standard ESA protocol in 2007, (2) transition to the MCAMS (2008 to June 2009), and (3) stability period with the MCAMS used in all hemodialysis facilities (2009 to 2010). In the first 6 months of 2007, 69% of patients were in the desired range and 26% were above the range. In comparison, during the first 5 months of 2010, 83% were in and 6% were above the range (P<.001). The mean monthly darbepoetin dose per patient decreased from 304 μg in 2007 to 173 μg by the second half of 2009 (P<.001).

With the introduction of the MCAMS, more patients had hemoglobin levels in the desired range and fewer patients exceeded the target range, with a concomitant 40% reduction in darbepoetin use.

Name Biomedical System Dynamics to Improve Anemia Control With Darbepoetin Alfa in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients
Modelers James T. McCarthy, Craig L. Hocum, Robert C. Albright, James Rogers, Edward J. Gallaher, David P. Steensma, Stephen F. Gudgell, Eric J. Bergstralh, John C. Dillion, LaTonya J. Hickson, Amy W. Williams, and David Dingli

Do you want to know more?

Related Publications

Biomedical System Dynamics to improve Anemia control with Darbepoetin Alfa in long-term Hemodialysis patients Download
Individualized Medicine and Biophysical System Dynamics: An Example from Clinical Practice in End Stage Renal Disease Download

Did You Know?

System Dynamics Application Award

The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2015 Applications Award to McCarthy, James with Craig Hocum, Robert Albright, James Rogers, Edward Gallaher, David Steensma, Stephen Gudgell, Eric Bergstralh, John Dillion, LaTonya Hickson, Amy Williams, and David Dingli for their work Biomedical SD to Improve Anemia Control With Darbepoetin Alfa in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients. To see the citation that was made by Bradley Morrison, please follow this link. (Jul 2015)

Individualized Medicine and Biophysical System Dynamics Presentation

The authors videotaped a copy of presentation made at 29th International System Dynamics Conference in 2011, Washington, D.C. The first part of this presentation describes the anemia of chronic kidney disease, shortcomings of current treatment protocols, and the structure of a System Dynamics model to improve patient care. Part 2 describes the outcome of implementing a model based protocol in a clinical setting. You can also find the slides used in this video here.

BSIG Webinar with Jim Rogers

On Thursday, 28 April, 2016, the Business Special Interest Group of the System Dynamics Society hosted their webinar “Dynamic Healthcare Models- accelerating diffusion and adoption” with guest presenter Jim Rogers of Advance Management Group. Jim, who has been consulting with Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota since 1997, discussed the use of System Dynamics models to improve patients’ quality of life while lowering the cost of care, using SD models for current research and insights for action, and drafting a framework towards model-informed, personalized care. Information about the Business SIG and the other Special Interest Groups of System Dynamics Society is available on our website.

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Upcoming Events

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Join us

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

Recent Posts

Society Governance Updates

Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series

Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...

Upcoming Events