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How to Understand Climate Change Policies with C-ROADS

The Dynamics of Climate Change: Understanding and influencing the planet’s future (October 8, 2013)

Presented by Andrew Jones, Co-Director, Climate Interactive

Presentation slides: Dynamics of Climate Change slides

Description: Learn how world leaders are using C-ROADS in global climate negotiations C-ROADS is an award-winning computer simulation that helps people understand the long-term climate impacts of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. World leaders are using the model in global climate negotiations. In this interactive session, Andrew Jones, Co-Director of Climate Interactive, introduces participants to C-ROADS and describes how it can be used by others to understand and test their own scenarios or conduct real-time policy analysis. This webinar is the first in the Big Data, System Dynamics, and XMILE webinar series jointly sponsored by IBM, isee systems, and the OASIS XMILE Technical Committee.

The Official Website

climateinteractive.org is the official website that covers all information about this brilliant project including the latest news, simulators and learning tools, videos, etc.

The Issue You Tackled

Negotiations have failed even though scientific understanding of climate change and the risks it poses ha s never been stronger. The failure of global negotiations can be traced to the gap between the strong scientific consensus on the risks of climate change and widespread confusion, complacency and denial among policymakers, the media and the public.

What You Actually Did

The C-ROADS model is designed to address these issues and build shared understanding of climate dynamics in a way that is solidly grounded in the best available science and rigorously non-partisan, yet understandable by and useful to non-specialists, from policymakers to the public.

The Results

C-ROADS:

  • tracks GHGs, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, halocarbons, aerosols and black carbon;

  • distinguishes emissions from fossil fuels and from land use and forestry policies;

  • allows users to select different business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios, or to define their own;

  • enables users to capture any emissions reduction scenario for each nation portrayed;

  • reports the resulting GHG concentrations, global mean temperature change, sea-level rise, ocean pH, per capita emissions and cumulative emissions;

  • allows users to assess the impact of uncertainty in key climate processes;

How to Work With The Model?

Video tutorials are available online to guide use

Name Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support
Modelers John StermanThomas FiddamanTravis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin, and Lori Siegel
Model To get the model, please follow this link.
Client/Participant Please click here.
Client Type NGO

Do you want to know more?

Related Publications

Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model. Download
Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations Download
Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world Download
The Climate Scoreboard shows the progress that national contributions (INDCs) to the UN climate negotiations will make assuming no further action after the end of the country’s pledge period (2025 or 2030). Scoreboard
World climate: a role-play simulation of climate negotiations Download

  

A Big Boost for the Climate Summit

An editorial in the New York Times about the climate summit in Paris, mentions C-ROADS team analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). Please follow this link to read this article in the NYT.

Offers for Paris Climate Talks Would Reduce Warming by 1°C

Climate Interactive’s Climate Scoreboard analysis, produced in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management (MIT Sloan), shows that the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) put forward in advance of the UN climate talks this December make a sizeable contribution towards curbing global emissions and limiting warming. However, the offers need to be paired with further action if warming is to be kept below the 2°C target, avoiding the worst impacts of catastrophic climate change. Please see the full news release of their new analysis of the expected impact of the emissions pledges nations have made in the run up to Paris. The climate scoreboard is an embeddable widget that people can embed on their sites, blogs, etc. and will automatically update as analysis is revised when new pledges come in. The New York Times and in Science Magazine Science Insider (dated September 28, 2015) have pick up this story so far.

Climate Interactive announced the World Climate Project at a Back-to-School Climate Education Event at the White House.

The World Climate Exercise is a role-playing simulation game that puts teams, classrooms, and communities into the role of international climate negotiators to create a pathway to solutions that limit global warming. Through these simulation games, Climate Interactive plans to reach more than 10,000 people by December 2015, when nations will come together to finalize a global agreement on climate change in Paris. (Aug 2015)

Professor John Sterman and Climate Interactive featured in film “Disruption”

The film Disruption features incredible and informative interviews from scientists, activists and leaders—including Climate Interactive partner John Sterman of MIT. The film was released in advance of the People’s Climate March, the largest climate march in history, in the streets of New York City on September 21, 2014. (September 2014)

System Dynamics Application Award

The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2013 Applications Award to John Sterman, Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin and Lori Siegel for their work Climate Interactive: The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model. To see the citation that was made by Brad Morisson at the conference, please follow this link(Jul 2013)

Professor John Sterman wrote an article in Climate Progress

It’s a great short article by John Sterman articulating why it is crucial to “hold our feet to the fire” WRT +2C maximum global warming target (i.e., to promote carbon emissions mitigation), while being careful, skeptical and perhaps even averse to climate resilience initiatives (i.e., to avoid engaging in adaptation to climate change). This article is contemporary, and more relevant as each day passes by without a global commitment to limit climate damage to a level that adaptation becomes pertinent. Please follow this link to find the article. (Jul 2013)

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CDC Provides Tools for Communities to Tackle Chronic Disease

The Issue You Tackled

At least 70% of deaths among Americans each year are from chronic diseases, and their direct and indirect costs are more than 1 trillion dollars per year. Governmental health agencies are in a position to promote strategies to prevent and manage chronic disease, but identifying the most effective and economical strategies is often difficult. To help health agencies better plan and evaluate interventions, the CDC and the NHLBI funded the creation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).

What You Actually Did

PRISM is a relatively large System Dynamics model that is used to simulate trajectories for health and cost outcomes for the entire U.S. population from 1990 to 2040, and has also been applied to represent other national and local populations. Interventions are in several broad areas: medical care, smoking, nutrition and weight loss, physical activity, emotional distress, and particulate air pollution. These interventions act through a range of channels such as access, price, promotion, and regulation. The diseases and conditions modeled in detail include heart disease, stroke, diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, and obesity, and the model also accounts for cancers and respiratory diseases related to smoking, obesity, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity.

The Results

The model reports summary measures of mortality and years of life lost as well as the consequent medical and productivity costs of the chronic diseases and conditions modeled. Local and federal health officials have used PRISM throughout its development, and its applications continue to grow in number and variety.

Name Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM)
Modelers Jack HomerKristina WileGary HirschJustin Trogdon, Amanda Honeycutt, Bobby Milstein, Diane Orenstein, and Lawton Cooper
Client/Participant Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI)
Client Type Government

Do you want to know more?

Related Publications

Using simulation to compare established and emerging interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risks in the United States. Download
Using simulation to compare 4 categories of intervention for reducing cardiovascular disease risks. Download
From model to action: using a System Dynamics model of chronic disease risks to align community action. Download
A ‘whole of system’ approach to compare options for CVD interventions in counties Manukau. Download
Proceedings from the workshop on estimating the contributions of Sodium reduction to preventable death. Download
A System Dynamics model for planning cardiovascular disease interventions. Download
Simulating and evaluating local interventions to improve cardiovascular health. Download
Modeling the local dynamics of cardiovascular health: risk factors, context, and capacity. Download

Did You Know?

System Dynamics Application Award

The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2011 Applications Award to Jack Homer, Kristina Wile, Gary Hirsch, Justin Trogdon, Amanda Honeycutt, Bobby Milstein, Diane Orenstein and Lawton Cooper for their work Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) for Chronic Disease Policymaking. To see the citation that was made by James Lyneis, please follow this link. To see the slides that were used in the 2011 ISDC, please click here(Jul 2011)

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Mayo Clinic Saves $2M by Thinking Differently About Dosing Regimens

The Issue You Tackled

To determine the value of a biomedical System Dynamics (BMSD) approach for optimization of anemia management in long-term hemodialysis patients because elevated hemoglobin levels and high doses of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) may negatively affect survival in this population.

What You Actually Did

A model of erythropoiesis and its response to ESAs on the basis of a BMSD method (Mayo Clinic Anemia Management System [MCAMS]) was developed. Thereafter, an open-label, prospective, nonrandomized practice quality improvement project was performed with retrospective analysis in 8 community-based outpatient hemodialysis facilities. All prevalent hemodialysis patients seen from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2010 (300-342 patients per month), were included with darbepoetin as the ESA. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients who attained the desired hemoglobin level. Secondary outcome measures included the percentage of patients with hemoglobin values above the desired range and mean dose of darbepoetin used.

The Results

The 3 treatment periods were (1) standard ESA protocol in 2007, (2) transition to the MCAMS (2008 to June 2009), and (3) stability period with the MCAMS used in all hemodialysis facilities (2009 to 2010). In the first 6 months of 2007, 69% of patients were in the desired range and 26% were above the range. In comparison, during the first 5 months of 2010, 83% were in and 6% were above the range (P<.001). The mean monthly darbepoetin dose per patient decreased from 304 μg in 2007 to 173 μg by the second half of 2009 (P<.001).

With the introduction of the MCAMS, more patients had hemoglobin levels in the desired range and fewer patients exceeded the target range, with a concomitant 40% reduction in darbepoetin use.

Name Biomedical System Dynamics to Improve Anemia Control With Darbepoetin Alfa in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients
Modelers James T. McCarthy, Craig L. Hocum, Robert C. Albright, James Rogers, Edward J. Gallaher, David P. Steensma, Stephen F. Gudgell, Eric J. Bergstralh, John C. Dillion, LaTonya J. Hickson, Amy W. Williams, and David Dingli

Do you want to know more?

Related Publications

Biomedical System Dynamics to improve Anemia control with Darbepoetin Alfa in long-term Hemodialysis patients Download
Individualized Medicine and Biophysical System Dynamics: An Example from Clinical Practice in End Stage Renal Disease Download

Did You Know?

System Dynamics Application Award

The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2015 Applications Award to McCarthy, James with Craig Hocum, Robert Albright, James Rogers, Edward Gallaher, David Steensma, Stephen Gudgell, Eric Bergstralh, John Dillion, LaTonya Hickson, Amy Williams, and David Dingli for their work Biomedical SD to Improve Anemia Control With Darbepoetin Alfa in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients. To see the citation that was made by Bradley Morrison, please follow this link. (Jul 2015)

Individualized Medicine and Biophysical System Dynamics Presentation

The authors videotaped a copy of presentation made at 29th International System Dynamics Conference in 2011, Washington, D.C. The first part of this presentation describes the anemia of chronic kidney disease, shortcomings of current treatment protocols, and the structure of a System Dynamics model to improve patient care. Part 2 describes the outcome of implementing a model based protocol in a clinical setting. You can also find the slides used in this video here.

BSIG Webinar with Jim Rogers

On Thursday, 28 April, 2016, the Business Special Interest Group of the System Dynamics Society hosted their webinar “Dynamic Healthcare Models- accelerating diffusion and adoption” with guest presenter Jim Rogers of Advance Management Group. Jim, who has been consulting with Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota since 1997, discussed the use of System Dynamics models to improve patients’ quality of life while lowering the cost of care, using SD models for current research and insights for action, and drafting a framework towards model-informed, personalized care. Information about the Business SIG and the other Special Interest Groups of System Dynamics Society is available on our website.

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Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

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How to Understand If You Should Work Harder or Work Smarter

The Issue You Tackled

How should managers prioritize among production, product development, branding, internationalization, and other capabilities and resources? This question is central to the resource-based view, and the answer depends not only on the direct returns on investment in each capability but also on the trade-offs in using those returns for future growth or survival in a competitive market.

Focusing on the investment allocation between operational and dynamic capabilities, this paper asks the following questions: (1) What fraction of the investment should go to operational versus dynamic capabilities? (2) How does this fraction depend on a firm’s growth opportunities?

(3) How does this fraction depend on competitive forces in a market? And finally, (4) how do firm characteristics (e.g., initial capability endowments) and market features (e.g., economies of scale) change the value of different capabilities?

What You Actually Did

Through simulation experiments, this study examines firm-level capability development trade-offs in the context of a firm’s market-level competition and growth. Two features distinguish the contributions of this paper. First, prior studies have not addressed the impact of endogenous changes in the investment flow available for capability development. However, investment flow is “endogenous”; i.e., it depends on the market performance of the firm, which in turn is dependent on the firm’s capabilities. Such endogeneity can be consequential. In Alpha’s example, the company could benefit from investing significantly in process improvement capability. However, that investment might be better applied to the fast-payoff coding capability because this alternative allows the firm to grow quickly and expand the resources available for further investment.

Considering the endogeneity of investment flow refocuses analyses on nonequilibrium growth and decline dynamics and, given the added complexity, calls for the use of simulation models. Second, the impact of competitive pressures on the viability of longterm capabilities is considered.

Under competitive pressures, survival may depend on developing short-term capabilities. Even though large investments in long-term capabilities may promise high downstream rewards, a firm may not be able to sustain the required investments in the face of an eroding market share.

The Results

It is found that investing in operational capabilities (which enhance short-term performance) gains priority over investing in long-term dynamic capabilities when the operational capability investment strengthens the reinforcing loop between performance, investment flow, and capability development. Such operational capability investment provides growth opportunities and competitive advantage. Moreover, in strategic competition, firms anticipating rivals’ focus on short-term growth need to further ignore dynamic (long-term) capability building in order to survive. Testable propositions are offered as to how trade-offs between short-term and long-term investments depend on different firm and industry characteristics. The results may explain why short-term-focused firm behavior persists in firms even in the absence of discounting, short-term managerial incentives, decision biases, or learning failures.

Name Impact of Growth Opportunities and Competition on Firm-Level Capability Development Trade-offs
Modeler Hazhir Rahmandad

Do you want to know more?

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Did You Know?

System Dynamics Forrester Award

The Jay Wright Forrester Award recognizes the authors of the best contribution to the field of System Dynamics in the preceding five years. In 2016, the award was presented to Hazhir Rahmandad for his winning work “Impact of Growth Opportunities and Competition on Firm-Level Capability Development Tradeoffs.”, published by Organization Science; Vol.

23, No. 1, January–February 2012, pp. 138–154. To read the Forrester Award Citation by Professor Khalid Saeed, please visit the page.
(Jul 2015)

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Upcoming Events

SA Chapter SD Learning Lab

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Join us

OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care

Fast-Track Cities Uses System Dynamics to Enhance HIV Care EXECUTIVE Summary Low levels of viral suppression at 69% for people with HIV make it hard to believe the 95% target level will be achieved by 2030 in St. Louis, USA. As a solution, Fast-Track Cities-STL opted...

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From Bergen to Global: UiB’s System Dynamics Group

From Bergen to Global: UiB’s System Dynamics Group The System Dynamics Group, an autonomous research group at the University of Bergen (UiB) was established in 1971 by professor emeritus Svein Nordbotten. Inspired by the work of Jay W. Forrester, Nordbotten...

Upcoming Events

SA Chapter SD Learning Lab

New to system dynamics? Want to learn in a controlled, but competitive environment? Join the South African Chapter in our SD Learning Lab Journey. In session 1 and 2 (Event 1) we build a case study model together. The purpose of the case study model is for you to...