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Systems Thinking for Pre-College Education
Systems Thinking for Pre-College Education
Pre-College SIG Seminar Series consists of periodic online meetings on K-12 education to the Systems Thinking and System Dynamics communities. These virtual activities cover a wide range of topics on K-12 education from many subjects while bringing together academics, teachers, and students together for learning and lively discussion. Our seminars aim to promote and improve skills to effectively apply systems thinking and dynamic computer simulation to K-12 education.
“Pre-schoolers as Systems Thinkers: Testing the Water”This study aims to cement the link between systems thinking (ST) and education for sustainability by presenting an example of systems education for young children. A learning framework was designed by developing a systems education guidebook focused on water and a learning framework based on the guidebook. The study was implemented over the course of four weeks with 32 children aged 5-6 in a pre-school in Turkey. To measure the outcomes, two ST assessment instruments (a shared reading and a concept mapping activity with interview protocols) were created. The children were pre-tested and post-tested with the assessment instruments using a mixed-method approach. The results revealed a significant development in the ST skills of the children. Children were more able to define system elements related to water and came to see invisible elements as parts of the system. The learning framework established high-quality causal relations between system elements related to water.
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“Understanding Composting with Systems Thinking”In this presentation, examples will be given of learning activities compatible with the Ministry of National Education (MONE) in Turkey and International Baccalaureate (IB) programs that seek to encourage a systems thinking approach and to develop a new way of understanding for primary years students(6-10 ages). For this activity, behavior over time graphs, stock-flow diagrams and ladders of inference were developed and used as systems thinking tools. During the activity, it was observed that the children were capable of viewing events with the tools provided, understanding these tools, and using them to engage with the subject matter. As a result, they were found to respond more clearly to the questions contained in the International Baccalaureate inquiry program and to be enthusiastic about taking action as individuals.
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“Teaching ‘Energy Conservation’ and ‘Household Waste’ with Systems Thinking Approach”In 2020-2021 school year, systems thinking based on system dynamics approach and tools (behavior over time graphs and stock-flow diagrams) were introduced in Darüşşafaka Middle School in Turkey. The aim of this prototyping project was to develop and apply activities compatible with outcomes of the Ministry of National Education in Turkey (MONE). In the long term, with tried and tested activities, it will be possible to offer MoNE to include systems thinking in the curriculum of education in Turkey. After training of voluntary science and math teachers on basic systems thinking concepts using Stella Online thru the summer of 2020, topics from the national education curriculum were selected and activities were developed for 6th, 7th and 8th grade. A similar approach is used for selecting students and delivering lessons. In this presentation 2 of these activities will be presented: Energy Conservation and Household Waste. We think these two activities are good examples for an introduction to systems thinking with simple numerical models.
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Watch the recording below
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Polio Eradication
Polio Eradication
| Name | Polio Eradication |
|---|---|
| Modelers | Kimberly M. Thompson,and Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens |
| Client | World Health Organization (WHO) |
| Client Type | NGO |
The Issue You Tackled
Following successful eradication of smallpox and impressive progress in the elimination of polio in the Americas, in 1988 the World Health Assembly committed to global eradication of wild polioviruses by the year 2000. By 2000, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) had significantly reduced the global circulation of wild polioviruses. However, in 2002–3, faced with insufficient funding to continue intense vaccination everywhere, the GPEI focused its vaccination efforts. At the time, wild polioviruses continued to circulate in six countries, but many other countries remained vulnerable to importation. Political and logistical challenges led to outbreaks and exportations, and between 2004 and 2006 wild polioviruses appeared again in previously polio-free African and Asian countries.
Toward the end of 2005, debate began about abandoning the goal of eradication. How could the world continue to justify the significant use of resources (both financial and human) on polio, particularly with the number of cases globally already so low and so many other disease control and health services programs in need of resources? In 2006 a prominent editorial questioned whether polio eradication is “realistic” and expressed concern that “international assistance for polio could have negative effects on other public health efforts”. The editorial suggested that “the time has come for the global strategy for polio to be shifted from ‘eradication’ to ‘effective control’”.
What You Actually Did
Given our then current work on assessing the risks, costs, and benefits of post-eradication policies we could use many of the components we previously developed to model a shift from eradication to control. Notably, our dynamic disease outbreak model for polio allowed us to estimate potential numbers of cases. Our analysis came at a critical time. In February 2007, the WHO Director-General, Dr Margaret Chan, convened an urgent stakeholder consultation to discuss the option of switching to control. We had the opportunity to present the preliminary results of this work at that meeting.
The Results
Following publication of the paper, an article about the paper published in the same journal as the editorial mentioned above noted that our analysis provided “a nail in the coffin for the idea that there is a cheap and painless way out”. Since then, efforts have continued to focus on finding the resources needed to complete eradication and on dealing with the other complex challenges that remain.
National and global health leaders and financial supporters have recommitted to completing eradication, and this has led to several hundreds of millions of dollars of resources.
Publications
| Using System Dynamics to Develop Policies That Matter: Global Management of Poliomyelitis and Beyond | Download |
| Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative | Download |
| Economic benefits of the global polio eradication initiative estimated at $40-50 billion | Download |
| Modeling Global Policy for Managing Polioviruses: An Analytical Journey | Download |
| Eradication versus control for poliomyelitis: an economic analysis | Download |
Urban Dynamics
Urban Dynamics
| Client | UK local authorities |
|---|---|
| Authors/Consultants | Swanson J (Sdgworld; Steer Davies Gleave) |
The Urban Dynamic Model (UDM) is a simulation of how transport interacts with population, employment and land-use over long periods of time, typically ten years or more. It was developed to help understand how transport could contribute to economic regeneration by improving the ability of employers to recruit a workforce and their access to customers and suppliers, and by improving access to employment opportunities.
For example, the vicious circle of congestion is familiar to us all but is almost impossible to capture in traditional models. In short, the cycle includes improved transport which reduces travel time, making businesses easier to access for customers, generating increased employment, leading to more transport activity and increased congestion.
The UDM was developed over a number of years, beginning with a fairly simple model built in 2000. This was used in one of a series of large scale transport studies commissioned by the government at the time. Its role at that time was to test the regeneration claims being made for a proposed by-pass that would have passed through an area of outstanding natural beauty. Models of this type must be able to represent the spatial characteristics of the study area, usually using a zone structure, and the road and public transport links connecting the zones together. Other applications followed, and then in 2005 we were commissioned by the Department for transport to carry out a study into the impact of transport on business location decisions. Current guidance from the Department for Transport emphasises the wider role of transport in supporting the economy, but also points to the need for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
The UDM is generic, and has been applied widely in the UK with local authorities. Conclusions vary from one application to another, but some of the findings we have reported include measures to generate employment can appear to have a significant effect if examined very locally, but we often find that some employment is transferred from elsewhere, and the net effect can be less than might first appear, city centres remain the best locations for many types of employer because they provide the best access to a workforce and bring ‘agglomeration’ benefits that employers enjoy by being clustered together. Studies of major programmes of transport investment typically involve expenditure of tens or hundreds of millions of pounds. The measured benefits are usually expressed in money, and expressing both the social and economic impacts of investment and can also run to hundreds of millions of pounds.
More Information
| For more information on this case, please contact John Swanson at Sdgworld, or see this link. |
ReThink Health Dynamics
ReThink Health Dynamics
| Name | Local Health System Reform Strategy |
|---|---|
| Modelers | Jack Homer, Gary B. Hirsch, Bobby Milstein, and Elliott S. Fisher |
| Client/Participant | Fannie E. Rippel Foundation (New Jersey) |
| Client Type | NGO |
ReThink Health: Simulation models supporting local solutions to a national problem (October 29, 2013)
Presented by Jack Homer, Owner, Homer Consulting
Presentation slides: ReThink Health slides
Description: In this video, Jack Homer presents ReThink Health, a model-based approach to understanding health at the community level that has featured prominently in our last two conferences. The ReThink Health webinar is an opportunity to introduce new people to System Dynamics. If you have friends or colleagues interested in health and health care let them know. It promises to be interesting and informative. This webinar is one of the Big Data, System Dynamics, and XMILE webinar series jointly sponsored by IBM, isee systems, and the OASIS XMILE Technical Committee.
The Official Website
rethinkhealth.org is the official website that covers all information about this project including the latest news, simulators and learning tools, videos, etc.
The Issue You Tackled
Health system reform is a national priority in the U.S., but it is increasingly being pursued through a mosaic of local initiatives.
Concerned leaders in cities, towns, and regions across the country are working within their local health systems to achieve better health, better care, lower cost, and greater equity. Such ambitious ventures are, however hard to plan, unwieldy to manage, and slow to spread. Further progress could occur if diverse stakeholders were better able to play out intervention scenarios, weigh trade-offs, set aside schemes that are unlikely to succeed, and enact strategies that promise the most robust results. Through the Rippel Foundation’s ReThink Health initiative and the ReThink Health Dynamics simulation model, local leaders are learning what it takes to spark and sustain system-wide improvements in their settings.
What You Actually Did
The effective alignment of regional stakeholders who act as stewards of their health system is a critical factor in sustainable system redesign. ReThink Health works closely with regional leaders and cross-sector coalitions to help them develop more active stewardship, effectively engage local community members, build critical relationships, set priorities, identify and pursue more effective strategies, and guide resources into smarter more sustained investments. The ReThink Health team consists of effective coaches, facilitators, networkers, and trainers in engagements with regions that may last a few days or a few years, based on a coalition’s needs.
The Results
Their work with regions helps move groups of independent actors focused on improving health outcomes to more coherent, multi-stakeholder approaches. By building relationships, enhancing system insight, redesigning core elements of the system, and implementing cohesive and well supported strategies, collaborative efforts can accelerate reaching the goals of better health, lower costs, higher quality care, and create more resilient communities.
Related Publications
| Combined Regional Investments Could Substantially Enhance Health System Performance And Be Financially Affordable | Download |
| NASPAA Student Simulation Competition: Reforming the U.S. Health Care System Within a Simulated Environment | Download |
| ReThink Health Dynamics: Understanding and Influencing Local Health System Change | Download |
| County Officials Embark on New Collective Endeavors to ReThink Their Local health Systems | Download |
Did You Know?
ReThink Health Dynamics Model Blog and Use Cases
“Did you know there is a blog devoted to lessons of the ReThink Health Dynamics Model, plus descriptions of how the model has been used with health leaders in several local places around the US?”
C-ROADS
C-ROADS
| Name | Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support |
|---|---|
| Modelers | John Sterman, Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin, and Lori Siegel |
| Model | To get the model, please follow this link. |
| Client/Participant | Please click here. |
| Client Type | NGO |
The Dynamics of Climate Change: Understanding and influencing the planet’s future (October 8, 2013)
Presented by Andrew Jones, Co-Director, Climate Interactive
Presentation slides: Dynamics of Climate Change slides
Description: Learn how world leaders are using C-ROADS in global climate negotiations C-ROADS is an award-winning computer simulation that helps people understand the long-term climate impacts of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. World leaders are using the model in global climate negotiations. In this interactive session, Andrew Jones, Co-Director of Climate Interactive, introduces participants to C-ROADS and describes how it can be used by others to understand and test their own scenarios or conduct real-time policy analysis. This webinar is the first in the Big Data, System Dynamics, and XMILE webinar series jointly sponsored by IBM, isee systems, and the OASIS XMILE Technical Committee.
The Official Website
climateinteractive.org is the official website that covers all information about this brilliant project including the latest news, simulators and learning tools, videos, etc.
The Issue You Tackled
Negotiations have failed even though scientific understanding of climate change and the risks it poses ha s never been stronger. The failure of global negotiations can be traced to the gap between the strong scientific consensus on the risks of climate change and widespread confusion, complacency and denial among policymakers, the media and the public.
What You Actually Did
The C-ROADS model is designed to address these issues and build shared understanding of climate dynamics in a way that is solidly grounded in the best available science and rigorously non-partisan, yet understandable by and useful to non-specialists, from policymakers to the public.
The Results
C-ROADS:
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tracks GHGs, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, halocarbons, aerosols and black carbon;
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distinguishes emissions from fossil fuels and from land use and forestry policies;
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allows users to select different business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios, or to define their own;
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enables users to capture any emissions reduction scenario for each nation portrayed;
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reports the resulting GHG concentrations, global mean temperature change, sea-level rise, ocean pH, per capita emissions and cumulative emissions;
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allows users to assess the impact of uncertainty in key climate processes;
How to Work With The Model?
Video tutorials are available online to guide use
Related Publications
| Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model. | Download |
| Management flight simulators to support climate negotiations | Download |
| Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world | Download |
| The Climate Scoreboard shows the progress that national contributions (INDCs) to the UN climate negotiations will make assuming no further action after the end of the country’s pledge period (2025 or 2030). | Scoreboard |
| World climate: a role-play simulation of climate negotiations | Download |
Did You Know?
A Big Boost for the Climate Summit
An editorial in the New York Times about the climate summit in Paris, mentions C-ROADS team analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). Please follow this link to read this article in the NYT.
Offers for Paris Climate Talks Would Reduce Warming by 1°C
Climate Interactive’s Climate Scoreboard analysis, produced in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management (MIT Sloan), shows that the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) put forward in advance of the UN climate talks this December make a sizeable contribution towards curbing global emissions and limiting warming. However, the offers need to be paired with further action if warming is to be kept below the 2°C target, avoiding the worst impacts of catastrophic climate change. Please see the full news release of their new analysis of the expected impact of the emissions pledges nations have made in the run up to Paris. The climate scoreboard is an embeddable widget that people can embed on their sites, blogs, etc. and will automatically update as analysis is revised when new pledges come in. The New York Times and in Science Magazine Science Insider (dated September 28, 2015) have pick up this story so far.
Climate Interactive announced the World Climate Project at a Back-to-School Climate Education Event at the White House.
The World Climate Exercise is a role-playing simulation game that puts teams, classrooms, and communities into the role of international climate negotiators to create a pathway to solutions that limit global warming. Through these simulation games, Climate Interactive plans to reach more than 10,000 people by December 2015, when nations will come together to finalize a global agreement on climate change in Paris. (Aug 2015)
Professor John Sterman and Climate Interactive featured in film “Disruption”
The film Disruption features incredible and informative interviews from scientists, activists and leaders—including Climate Interactive partner John Sterman of MIT. The film was released in advance of the People’s Climate March, the largest climate march in history, in the streets of New York City on September 21, 2014. (September 2014)
System Dynamics Application Award
The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2013 Applications Award to John Sterman, Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin and Lori Siegel for their work Climate Interactive: The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model. To see the citation that was made by Brad Morisson at the conference, please follow this link. (Jul 2013)
Professor John Sterman wrote an article in Climate Progress
It’s a great short article by John Sterman articulating why it is crucial to “hold our feet to the fire” WRT +2C maximum global warming target (i.e., to promote carbon emissions mitigation), while being careful, skeptical and perhaps even averse to climate resilience initiatives (i.e., to avoid engaging in adaptation to climate change). This article is contemporary, and more relevant as each day passes by without a global commitment to limit climate damage to a level that adaptation becomes pertinent. Please follow this link to find the article. (Jul 2013)
Prism
Prism
| Name | Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) |
|---|---|
| Modelers | Jack Homer, Kristina Wile, Gary Hirsch, Justin Trogdon, Amanda Honeycutt, Bobby Milstein, Diane Orenstein, and Lawton Cooper |
| Client/Participant | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) |
| Client Type | Government |
The Issue You Tackled
At least 70% of deaths among Americans each year are from chronic diseases, and their direct and indirect costs are more than 1 trillion dollars per year. Governmental health agencies are in a position to promote strategies to prevent and manage chronic disease, but identifying the most effective and economical strategies is often difficult. To help health agencies better plan and evaluate interventions, the CDC and the NHLBI funded the creation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).
What You Actually Did
PRISM is a relatively large System Dynamics model that is used to simulate trajectories for health and cost outcomes for the entire U.S. population from 1990 to 2040, and has also been applied to represent other national and local populations. Interventions are in several broad areas: medical care, smoking, nutrition and weight loss, physical activity, emotional distress, and particulate air pollution. These interventions act through a range of channels such as access, price, promotion, and regulation. The diseases and conditions modeled in detail include heart disease, stroke, diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, and obesity, and the model also accounts for cancers and respiratory diseases related to smoking, obesity, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity.
The Results
The model reports summary measures of mortality and years of life lost as well as the consequent medical and productivity costs of the chronic diseases and conditions modeled. Local and federal health officials have used PRISM throughout its development, and its applications continue to grow in number and variety.
Related Publications
| Using simulation to compare established and emerging interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risks in the United States. | Download |
| Using simulation to compare 4 categories of intervention for reducing cardiovascular disease risks. | Download |
| From model to action: using a System Dynamics model of chronic disease risks to align community action. | Download |
| A ‘whole of system’ approach to compare options for CVD interventions in counties Manukau. | Download |
| Proceedings from the workshop on estimating the contributions of Sodium reduction to preventable death. | Download |
| A System Dynamics model for planning cardiovascular disease interventions. | Download |
| Simulating and evaluating local interventions to improve cardiovascular health. | Download |
| Modeling the local dynamics of cardiovascular health: risk factors, context, and capacity. | Download |
Did You Know?
System Dynamics Application Award
The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2011 Applications Award to Jack Homer, Kristina Wile, Gary Hirsch, Justin Trogdon, Amanda Honeycutt, Bobby Milstein, Diane Orenstein and Lawton Cooper for their work Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) for Chronic Disease Policymaking. To see the citation that was made by James Lyneis, please follow this link. To see the slides that were used in the 2011 ISDC, please click here. (Jul 2011)
Oral Health
Oral Health
| Name | Oral Health Model |
|---|---|
| Modelers | Mitsue Fujimaki, Josely Emiko Umeda, Renata Corrêa Pascotto, Raquel Sano Suga Terada, Thiago Brito, Ricardo Pietrobon, and Guttenberg Passos |
| Contact | Professor Mitsue Fujimaki, Coordinator of the Graduate Program in Integrated Dentistry, Universidade Estadual de Maringá – UEM, |
| Client/Participant | State Secretary of Health of Paraná |
| Client Type | Government |
The Issue You Tackled
Dental caries is still considered the main pathology to cause tooth loss. It is a chronic disease that can mutilate people for the rest of their lives, negatively affecting their life quality.
According to a national survey conducted in Brazil in 2010, older people aged between 65 and 74 years had already lost most of their teeth. Although dental caries etiological factors and prevention procedures are well known, there seems to be a gap between the evidence found in the recent literature and the actual dental care provided in health services in Brazil.
What You Actually Did
The impact of the preventive approach over time does not seem to have been completely understood. Thus, the main objective of this study was to simulate the impact of educational preventive approaches in the maintenance of teeth throughout the lifetime of people.
System dynamics modeling involves the development of computer simulations based on conceptual interactions of multiple factors and processes of accumulation and feedback. This is a suitable approach for the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues.
The model is a useful tool for policymakers when choosing the most appropriate interventions for their populations. This study used data obtained from the National Oral Health Survey conducted in 2010, and qualitative variables from a recent systematic review and some unpublished studies.
The Results
This model showed that educational preventive care can lead to the adoption of healthy habits by the population to a level of 22% over 1 year, resulting in higher numbers of people with retained teeth and improved life quality. This would likely result in the proportion of adults retaining all of their teeth rising from 25% to 50% over 60 years. This could be accomplished with no more than once a week of oral-health education per child, at a cost of no more than US$ 1,5 per year per child.
Our findings highlight the importance of investments in educational approaches from early childhood to result in an exponential cascade effect for the improvement of the oral health of the Brazilian population.
Related Publications
| Understanding why caries is still a public health problem | Download |
Anemia Control
Anemia Control
| Name | Biomedical System Dynamics to Improve Anemia Control With Darbepoetin Alfa in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients |
|---|---|
| Modelers | James T. McCarthy, Craig L. Hocum, Robert C. Albright, James Rogers, Edward J. Gallaher, David P. Steensma, Stephen F. Gudgell, Eric J. Bergstralh, John C. Dillion, LaTonya J. Hickson, Amy W. Williams, and David Dingli |
The Issue You Tackled
To determine the value of a biomedical System Dynamics (BMSD) approach for optimization of anemia management in long-term hemodialysis patients because elevated hemoglobin levels and high doses of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) may negatively affect survival in this population.
What You Actually Did
A model of erythropoiesis and its response to ESAs on the basis of a BMSD method (Mayo Clinic Anemia Management System [MCAMS]) was developed. Thereafter, an open-label, prospective, nonrandomized practice quality improvement project was performed with retrospective analysis in 8 community-based outpatient hemodialysis facilities. All prevalent hemodialysis patients seen from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2010 (300-342 patients per month), were included with darbepoetin as the ESA. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients who attained the desired hemoglobin level. Secondary outcome measures included the percentage of patients with hemoglobin values above the desired range and mean dose of darbepoetin used.
The Results
The 3 treatment periods were (1) standard ESA protocol in 2007, (2) transition to the MCAMS (2008 to June 2009), and (3) stability period with the MCAMS used in all hemodialysis facilities (2009 to 2010). In the first 6 months of 2007, 69% of patients were in the desired range and 26% were above the range. In comparison, during the first 5 months of 2010, 83% were in and 6% were above the range (P<.001). The mean monthly darbepoetin dose per patient decreased from 304 μg in 2007 to 173 μg by the second half of 2009 (P<.001).
With the introduction of the MCAMS, more patients had hemoglobin levels in the desired range and fewer patients exceeded the target range, with a concomitant 40% reduction in darbepoetin use.
Did You Know?
System Dynamics Application Award
The System Dynamics Applications Award is presented by the Society every other year for the best “real world” application of system dynamics. The Society awarded its 2015 Applications Award to McCarthy, James with Craig Hocum, Robert Albright, James Rogers, Edward Gallaher, David Steensma, Stephen Gudgell, Eric Bergstralh, John Dillion, LaTonya Hickson, Amy Williams, and David Dingli for their work Biomedical SD to Improve Anemia Control With Darbepoetin Alfa in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients. To see the citation that was made by Bradley Morrison, please follow this link. (Jul 2015)
Individualized Medicine and Biophysical System Dynamics Presentation
The authors videotaped a copy of presentation made at 29th International System Dynamics Conference in 2011, Washington, D.C. The first part of this presentation describes the anemia of chronic kidney disease, shortcomings of current treatment protocols, and the structure of a System Dynamics model to improve patient care. Part 2 describes the outcome of implementing a model based protocol in a clinical setting. You can also find the slides used in this video here.
BSIG Webinar with Jim Rogers
On Thursday, 28 April, 2016, the Business Special Interest Group of the System Dynamics Society hosted their webinar “Dynamic Healthcare Models- accelerating diffusion and adoption” with guest presenter Jim Rogers of Advance Management Group. Jim, who has been consulting with Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota since 1997, discussed the use of System Dynamics models to improve patients’ quality of life while lowering the cost of care, using SD models for current research and insights for action, and drafting a framework towards model-informed, personalized care. Information about the Business SIG and the other Special Interest Groups of System Dynamics Society is available on our website.
Recycling Rate
Recycling Rate
| Name | Structural and Behavioral Effects on the Recycling Rate |
|---|---|
| Modelers | John Egil Nilssen and Maren Sylthe |
| Client/Participant | Waste Agency of Oslo, Norway |
| Client Type | Government |
The Issue You Tackled
One of the goals for the waste policy in the municipality of Oslo is to achieve a recycling rate at least 50 % from the household waste by 2018. In 2015 the recycling rate was 38 %. The result in 2016 was 38 % and this raises the question whether the objective of 50 % is realistic given the portfolio of means and actions that is used in the municipality today. The Agency of Waste Management in Oslo carried out a study to identify new ways and means to increase the recycling rate based on international published studies. The purpose of this work was to use recommendations from the modeling work, to implement these in different curbside collection schemes, and to quantify the effects on the recycling rate. The main aim is to give the Agency in Oslo sufficient information to conclude about the most cost-effective collection schemes and if it is relevant to change today’s scheme.
What You Actually Did
The work consists of five main parts.
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First five different curbside collection schemes were designed and developed . These schemes consisted of different combinations of waste fractions and containers for recycled fractions and residual waste. The schemes were developed so they were mutually exclusive. From a decision point of view, the intention was that the decision maker has to choose one scheme, not a combination of schemes.
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A system dynamics model was developed that could simulate a future recycling rate, based on data collected. This model consists of a traditional waste value chain and a structural and behavioral section that takes into account how the various schemes affect the public’s waste sorting behavior. Three structural components in the model are populated with data reflecting the scheme that is simulated. These data were collected during group work with specialists in the waste agency.
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The collection schemes were simulated over a period of 15 years. The schemes were ranked by recycling rate and sensitivity analyses were run. The net increase in recycling was identified by taking the schemes’ simulated recycling rate and subtracting the recycling rate in 2015.
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Then, as part four, the schemes were costed. Cost and income drivers were identified and the different schemes’ cash flow calculated. Cash flows were transformed into a yearly totals – subtracting the cost base in 2015 identified the additional cost for each collection scheme.
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Finally, the simulated recycling rate and annuity were combined in two cost-efficiency figures. These figures gave the final ranking between the schemes. The cost-efficiency is the net increase in recycling rate compared with the additional cost.
The Results
The collection scheme ranked number 1 achieved a 50,9% recycling rate for the lowest costs. However, this scheme requires another combination of bins and waste fractions compared to the scheme Oslo uses today, and would require a major logistic change which will challenge the households and the waste agency.
The collection scheme most similar to the scheme Oslo uses today was ranked as number 5 and achieved a 46,8% recycling rate to the highest costs. This scheme is a gradual development of today’s scheme.
Sensitivity analysis shows that ranking of the collection schemes due to cost-effectiveness is inelastic and the simulated ranking between the schemes did not change within the structural sensitivity parameters that were used (+/- 50%).
This work also shows that an implementation of a new collection scheme needs new sets of managerial information that the Agency does not currently have. If Oslo finds it relevant to modify today’s collection scheme, 4 recommendations have to be agreed before the Agency starts the process of changing the collection scheme.