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China Chapter – Events

2021 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Investigating the effectiveness of reopening policies before vaccination during a pandemic

Ying Qian 钱颖

Parallel present at July 26, 2021

Lockdown policies were widely applied during the COVID-19 pandemic to control the spread of the virus before the availability of a vaccine, causing significant economic impact and social disruption. Early reopening is preferred, yet it introduces the risk of further outbreaks. So far, the effectiveness of reopening policies remains unclear. A system dynamics COVID-19 model, SEIHR(Q), was constructed by integrating infection prevention and control measures implemented in Wuhan into the classic SEIR epidemiological model. Simulation results showed that track-and-trace measures were of significance in affecting reopen risk. In Wuhan’s case, with comprehensive contact tracing implemented, there would have been almost no risk for reopening. With partial contact tracing, reopening would have led to a minor second wave of the epidemic. However, if only limited contact tracing had been implemented, a more severe second outbreak of the epidemic would have occurred, overwhelming the available medical resources. When the ability to implement a track-trace-quarantine policy is fixed, the epidemiological criteria need to be further taken into account. A matrix was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of the reopening policies, based on simulation results. The model simulation provides evidence-based decision support for safe reopening during an ongoing epidemic.

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Notice!
We are going to build a System Dynamics China Chapter website now. Please email ‘swuzhi@gmail.com’  to share your idea, kind suggestions, and advice, and let’s create a better China Chapter webpage together!
本页主题为系统动力学各类“活动”。
本页会公布近期的各类系统动力学学术活动,包括系统动力学年会等。
还有什么其他内容你想在本页找到的呢?
This is the ‘Events’.
On this page, you will find all the SD events, such as meetings, conferences, seminars, etc.
What else do you want to see on this page?