U.S. Justice Studies Cocaine Law Enforcement Relaxation Policy
A system dynamics model reproduces a variety of national indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a 15-year period and provides detailed estimates of actual underlying prevalence. Sensitivity testing clarifies the source of observed trends. Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications were simulated and projected.
In one analysis, the model was applied to determine the potential impact of policies involving a relaxation of law enforcement. The model suggests that a policy that eliminates both drug seizures and retail-level arrests would reduce the criminal justice load, but could lead to a large increase in cocaine use and addiction.
Client | National Institute of Justice, US Department of Justice |
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Author/Consultant | Homer J |
Publications
Homer J. A System Dynamics Model of National Cocaine Prevalence. System Dynamics Review, 9(1): 49-78, 1993. |
Homer J. System Dynamics Model for Cocaine Prevalence Estimation and Trend Projection. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 251-279, 1993. |
Homer J. Projecting the Impact of Law Enforcement on Cocaine Prevalence. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 281-295, 1993 |
Homer J. A Dynamic Model of Cocaine Prevalence in the United States.
In System Dynamics, ed. Y Barlas, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), available at https://www.eolss.net. Developed under auspices of UNESCO, EOLSS Publishers, Oxford, UK. 2004. |
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Upcoming Events
MIT System Dynamics Seminar | Work Faster? Put in Longer Hours? An Assessment of Reactive Resilience Policies in Supply Chains
Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information. You are invited to attend a supplemental System Dynamics seminar being held on Tuesday, April 23rd from 12:00-1:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via...
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OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS
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A Design Value Calculator: A System Dynamics Boardgame EXECUTIVE Summary Product design is a specific form of complex innovation that touches all areas of an organization’s management. While entrepreneurs recognise the value of design, they often tend to focus...
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Society Governance Updates Welcome, Allyson! New President Allyson Beall King joined the Policy Council as our 2024 President. Her primary role is as director of the Washington State University School of the Environment, which focuses on regional ecologies and our...
Call for Presenters: Seminar Series
Call for Presenters: Seminar Series We at the System Dynamics Society are continually seeking vibrant and knowledgeable presenters for our ongoing Seminar Series. As we unfold the calendar, there’s always a place for more insights, experiences, and expertise to enrich...
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