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Cocaine Use Prevalence Estimation and Policy Analysis

Cocaine Use Prevalence Estimation

and Policy Analysis

Client National Institute of Justice, US Department of Justice
Author/Consultant Homer J

A system dynamics model reproduces a variety of national indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a 15-year period and provides detailed estimates of actual underlying prevalence. Sensitivity testing clarifies the source of observed trends.  Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications were simulated and projected.

In one analysis, the model was applied to determine the potential impact of policies involving a relaxation of law enforcement.  The model suggests that a policy that eliminates both drug seizures and retail-level arrests would reduce the criminal justice load, but could lead to a large increase in cocaine use and addiction.


Homer J.  A System Dynamics Model of National Cocaine PrevalenceSystem Dynamics Review, 9(1): 49-78, 1993.
Homer J.  System Dynamics Model for Cocaine Prevalence Estimation and Trend ProjectionJournal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 251-279, 1993.
Homer J.  Projecting the Impact of Law Enforcement on Cocaine PrevalenceJournal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 281-295, 1993
Homer J. A Dynamic Model of Cocaine Prevalence in the United States.

  In System Dynamics, ed. Y Barlas, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), available at Developed under auspices of UNESCO, EOLSS Publishers, Oxford, UK. 2004.

System Dynamics Admins
System Dynamics Admins