Timothy Clancy on “Evidence of Contagion – Role of Experiments, Confidence Building & Prediction Testing for the Terror Contagion Hypothesis”
In this Collective Learning Meeting (CLM), WPI System Dynamics will host Timothy Clancy (timc@dialecticsims.com) who will present
Evidence of Contagion – Role of Experiments, Confidence Building & Prediction Testing for the Terror Contagion Hypothesis
Short Description: Timothy advances the terror contagion hypothesis presented in his PhD dissertation and hopes to facilitate a discussion on the nature of experimentation and confidence building with system dynamic simulations. The presentation, a very early-stage working draft, compares historical empirical data of 3-5 active and failed mass violence contagions against predictions made in the dissertation, simulation runs, and contingency analysis. Participants need no prior knowledge of the terror contagion hypothesis, but for those wishing to learn more about the hypothesis see Chapters 1-4 of his dissertation or of the Terror Contagion Simulation see https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/9/4/90/htm
Question(s) for the Audience:
- What roles do you see for experimentation, prediction testing, and other confidence-building measures to improve hypotheses developed in the simulation?
- Specifically, as an element of the above, what roles should falsification play?
- Given the observations of the 3-5 contagions made to date, are there specific experiments, tests, or other measures to build confidence or reject portions of the terror contagion hypothesis you recommend?
Biography: Timothy Clancy is the founder and CEO of Dialectic Simulations and earned his PhD in System Dynamics at WPI.
We will record this meeting and post the video on the WPI System Dynamics Club YouTube channel.
Call-in details: https://bit.ly/CLM-2023-02-24