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MIT System Dynamics Seminar | Work Faster? Put in Longer Hours? An Assessment of Reactive Resilience Policies in Supply Chains

Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information.

You are invited to attend a supplemental System Dynamics seminar being held on Tuesday, April 23rd from 12:00-1:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/91800701005 (Password: SDSP24). Our guest speakers will be Nitin Joglekar (Boston University), Mukesh Kumar and Naoum Tsolakis (University of Cambridge) presenting Work Faster? Put in Longer Hours? An Assessment of Reactive Resilience Policies in Supply Chains (see abstract and authors’ info below). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email sent out closer to the date.

Abstract

We assess triple disruptions (reduced upstream and downstream capacities, and increased demand) in supply chains by analyzing reactive resilience trade-offs between costs and benefits. Reactive resilience refers to considering short duration alternatives within existing supply chain configurations (e.g., working overtime, job reassignments, speeding up adjustment times, and reducing inventory coverages). Our work highlights behavioral issues around fairness and equity for the workforce under such adverse scenarios. The point of departure for our work is fieldwork before, during, and after COVID-19 disruptions in a fish supply chain. We develop a system dynamics simulation model that builds on the classic beer game structure to set up a novel Cost-Adjusted Continuity (CAC) metric to account for cost-benefit trade-offs. We find that: (1) differing emphasis, and allied mental models, on reducing either inventory cost or labor cost (or both), crucially affects CAC outcomes; (2) working harder (putting in longer hours, under isolation) creates burnout. Job redesign with fair assignments can address this burnout issue and improve CAC outcomes;  (3) Double disruption (i.e., introducing a capacity constraint either upstream or downstream in the supply chain, joint with increased demand) has an asymmetric impact on reactive resilience governance choices, when compared to triple disruptions. CAC governance based on multiple disruptions need not align with single disruption policies examined in a classic beer game. 

We will end this talk with by discussing opportunities in reactive resilience research within the context of current debates on enhancing and monitoring resilience in supply chains.

Authors

Nitin Joglekar works at the intersection of AI, Design (of Products and Supply Chains) and allied Ethical issues at Boston University. He recently edited a special issue of the Production and Operations Management Journal on managing pandemics. https://people.bu.edu/joglekar

Mukesh Kumar heads the Industrial Resilience Research Group at the University of Cambridge, UK. Currently, he is running Global Supply Chain Observatory project, together with Google, on monitoring resilience. https://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/people/mk501/

Naoum Tsolakis is with the Institute for Manufacturing (Cambridge, UK) and is an Assistant Professor at the International Hellenic University in Greece. His works on AI and Intelligent Systems in Logistics and Supply Chains. https://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/people/nt377/

MIT System Dynamics Seminar | Approaches to Encouraging Health Exchange Participation

You are invited to attend the System Dynamics Seminar being held on Friday, April 26th from 12:30-2:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/94114971874 (Password: SDSP24). Our guest speaker will be Soheil Ghili (Yale University) presenting Approaches to Encouraging Health Insurance Takeup (see abstract and brief bio below; announcement and paper attached). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email will be sent out closer to the date.

If you would also like to schedule a 30-minute 1:1 meeting with him before or after the seminar, please fill out the following link by COB Friday, April 19th and I will confirm times and location with a calendar invite: https://rallly.co/invite/zVH4Rg1mCMRB. Please notify me if you need to meet over Zoom instead.

Abstract

The effectiveness of inducements to participate in health insurance exchanges, be those inducements of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) or of the Republican proposals to replace the ACA mandate, are an empirical matter. We study participation and welfare under different policies. We depart from the fully rational model of insurance; this decision is motivated by the fact that, under ACA rules, millions remain uninsured despite the heavy premium subsidies, often declining almost free coverage. We estimate the role of different frictions to participation, such as: uncompensated care, myopia and distaste for complying with the ACA mandate. Given these frictions we solve the equilibrium in the exchanges under various government interventions: subsidies, pricing regulations, individual mandate penalties, and dynamically based penalties. We find that the main friction is myopia. Although subsidies are necessary for the market under current rules not to collapse, subsidies would not be necessary absent myopia. Contrary to previous findings risk pricing does quite well, aided by subsidies and uncompensated care. Barring those, risk pricing would deliver very low welfare, due to reclassification risk.

Soheil Ghili is an assistant professor of Marketing at Yale School of Management. His main research interests are industrial organization and quantitative marketing. His recent research has examined optimal pricing strategies, with a focus on second-degree price discrimination mechanisms such as nonlinear pricing and product bundling. Methodologically, I use a combination of econometrics, micro-economic theory, and experiment design.

MIT System Dynamics Seminar | Economic Complexity, Diversification and Green Supply Chains

Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information.

You are invited to attend the System Dynamics Seminar being held on Friday, April 19th from 12:30-2:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/94114971874 (Password: SDSP24). Our guest speaker will be Muhammed Yildirim (Harvard Growth Lab) presenting Economic Complexity, Diversification and Green Supply Chains (see abstract and brief bio below; announcement attached). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email will be sent out closer to the date.

If you would also like to schedule a 30-minute 1:1 meeting with her before or after the seminar, please fill out the following link by COB Friday, April 12th and I will confirm times and location with a calendar invite: https://rallly.co/invite/Ztq0drVIo7gO. Please notify me if you need to meet over Zoom instead.

Abstract

To decarbonize, the world needs to rapidly scale supply chains for green products. This offers countries and regions economic opportunities, but these economic opportunities are path dependent, based on existing industries, capabilities and knowhow present in a location. Economic complexity is a method that lets us measure places’ diversification opportunities and capabilities, and how well places’ capabilities match with specific opportunities and products. In this presentation, I will explain the economic complexity approach, use it to explore the properties of green supply chain products, analyze diversification opportunities of countries, and analyze how announced green investment projects in the US fit with regional economies.

Muhammed A. Yildirim serves as the Director of Academic Research at the Harvard Growth Lab and holds the position of Associate Professor of Economics at Koç University (currently on leave). He earned his Ph.D. from Harvard University and a BS degree from the California Institute of Technology. Prior to joining the faculty at Koç University, he was a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Development at Harvard University. His research primarily focuses on understanding network and spillover effects across various research domains, including industrial policy, international trade, productivity, economic growth, and matching. Dr. Yildirim received the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship in 2015, the Young Scientist Award (BAGEP) from the Science Academy in Turkey in 2021, and Koç University’s College of Administrative Sciences and Economics Outstanding Faculty Award in 2021.

MIT System Dynamics Seminar | Strategic Investments for Platform Launch and Ecosystem Growth

Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information.

You are invited to attend the System Dynamics Seminar being held on Friday, April 12th from 12:30-2:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/94114971874 (Password: SDSP24). Our guest speaker will be Burcu Tan (Anderson School of Management, UNM) presenting Strategic Investments for Platform Launch and Ecosystem Growth: A Dynamic Analysis (see abstract and brief bio below; announcement attached). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email will be sent out closer to the date.

If you would also like to schedule a 30-minute 1:1 meeting with her before or after the seminar, please fill out the following link by COB Friday, April 5th and I will confirm times and location with a calendar invite: https://rallly.co/invite/CI5nD2MSCPLB. Please notify me if you need to meet over Zoom instead.

Abstract

Multi-sided platforms must make decisions on both pricing and engineering investment and must continually adjust them as the platform scales over its lifecycle. Engineering investments can be allocated to features that improve a platform’s standalone value, social features to take advantage of same-side network effects, or integration tools and boundary resources to facilitate third-party content creation. Guidance in the academic or practitioner literature is not granular. Moreover, relevant normative economic models that consider externalities are rarely dynamic. Hence, there is a gap in knowledge about how to best balance tradeoffs between different strategic decisions throughout the entire platform lifecycle. To begin to address this gap, we explore normative strategies for coordinating pricing and engineering investment decisions on a continuous basis under different ecosystem conditions. We build a simulation model informed by economics and marketing theory and perform extensive sensitivity analyses on key parameters in different ecosystem scenarios over a multi-period lifecycle. We find that pricing and investment strategies must continuously change to perform optimally. In particular, strategies that are most effective at launch often differ from those that are most effective during scaling as well as those most effective at maturity. We also find that the optimal strategy depends strongly on the monetization model and market aversion to price changes. Lastly, we specifically examine four different industry segments: mobile platforms, social media, the sharing economy, and business-to-business. The results provide evidence that the trajectory of platform pricing and investment strategies should greatly differ depending on industrial context.

Brief Bio

Burcu Tan (btan@unm.edu) is an Associate Professor at Anderson School of Management, University of New Mexico. She holds a Ph.D. in Operations Management from the University of Texas at Austin and a BSc. and MSc. in Industrial Engineering from Bogazici University. Her research interests include digital platforms,  supply chain management, socially responsible operations, and system dynamics. Her work has been published in Information Systems and Operations Management journals such as Information Systems Research, Journal of Management Information Systems, and Production and Operations Management. She is a Senior Editor at Production and Operations Management.

MIT System Dynamics Seminar | The remarkable universality of technology growth suggests that the green energy transition will happen quickly

Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information.

You are invited to attend the System Dynamics Seminar being held on Friday, April 5th from 12:30-2:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/94114971874 (Password: SDSP24). Our virtual guest speaker will be J. Doyne Farmer (Oxford Martin School) presenting The remarkable universality of technology growth suggests that the green energy transition will happen quickly (see abstract and brief bio below; announcement attached). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email will be sent out closer to the date.

If you would also like to schedule a 30-minute 1:1 meeting with him before or after the seminar, please fill out the following link by COB Friday, March 29th and I will confirm times and location with a calendar invite: https://rallly.co/invite/sVOs8NoOgYkn. Please notify me if you need to meet over Zoom instead.

Abstract

How fast will the green energy transition happen? To address this question we assembled a database on the deployment of 42 technologies, ranging from railroads to the internet.  When the individual time series are rescaled to have the same rates and levels, they have a universal form that is very close to a standard logistic S-curve. Although each technology’s rate of deployment varies due to many factors, the universal S-curve explains most of their behavior. We show that S-curve time series present challenges including autocorrelation, heteroscedastic noise and parameter bias, and develop a probabilistic method for forecasting deployment that takes these into account. Application to the time series for wind and solar energy suggest that we have still not reached rates of maximum deployment, and that the green energy transition is likely to happen surprisingly quickly.

Brief Bio

J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics program at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Baillie Gifford Professor in the Mathematical Institute at the University of Oxford and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to the United Bank of Switzerland in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. He was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette

MIT Alumni System Dynamics: Action Learning in Breakout Sessions & Speed Networking

In this two-part online interactive event, spend the first half exploring topics and open discussions in short breakout sessions led by breakout leaders and room participants on system dynamics, real-world applications, and the adoption of artificial intelligence, including GPTs and LLMS. Each topic will be rotated every 10 minutes. The remaining session will become an interactive automated speed networking breakout.

We encourage you to participate, share, and ask questions. All experiences are welcome, and you don’t need to be an experienced System Dynamics practitioner or academic.

To register, RSVP, or learn more, visit the event page: https://www.masd-events.xyz/

MIT System Dynamics Seminar | Behavioral Epidemic Models

Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information.

You are invited to attend the System Dynamics Seminar being held on Friday, March 15th from 12:30-2:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/94114971874 (Password: SDFA24). Our virtual guest speaker will be Navid Ghaffarzadegan (Virginia Tech) presenting Behavioral epidemic models (see abstract and brief bio below; announcement attached). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email will be sent out closer to the date.

From social distancing and vaccination in response to the perceived risk of infection to changes in Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions under economic pressures, human responses alter the outcomes of an epidemic outbreak. While recognized in theory, this realization is not reflected in current infectious disease models at large. A grand challenge for scientists is to incorporate more realistic behavioral assumptions about human response and to couple human behavior models and epidemic models to represent change in human behavior endogenously (within epidemic models). In a series of studies, we show that the endogenous representation of human behavior: 1) improves the accuracy of long-term projections, 2) sheds light on several challenging puzzles such as early convergence to the reproductive number of one and the observed large variations in mortality rates across different regions, and 3) offers a different perspective on the health vs. economy tradeoff during a pandemic. Finally, we discuss methodological challenges in parameter estimation of behavioral epidemic models.

Navid Ghaffarzadegan is an Associate Professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Virginia Tech. He applies simulation techniques to study complex social systems and policy problems, the main application areas being health and education policy. His research has been supported by several competitive grants from NIH, NSF, and DOD. His COVID-19 studies appeared in various leading journals in health policy such as Health Affairs, BioScience, Lancet Planetary Health, and PLoS Computational Biology and received media coverage by Washington Post, New York Times, BBC, and Le Monde. He is an Associate Editor of the System Dynamics Review. He is the recipient of the College of Engineering’s Excellence Award for outstanding new Assistant Professors. He has a PhD in Public Policy with a concentration of System Dynamics from the State University of New York at Albany, and an MBA, and BSc in Mechanical Engineering from Sharif University of Technology. Prior to joining Virginia Tech, Navid was a postdoctoral researcher at MIT, Engineering Systems Division.

Cleanstart: Simulating a Clean Energy Startup

In this FREE live, web-based simulation, participants play the role of the founder of a new startup company in the exciting and competitive clean tech sector.

Can you develop your technology into a successful company? You must set prices each quarter, decide how many engineers and salespeople to hire, and set compensation, including salary, stock, options, and profit sharing. Will you pitch your firm to venture capitalists or bootstrap and remain 100% employee-owned? Will you win customers and become cash flow positive before you run out of funds? Will you succeed and take your firm public?”

SPEAKERS

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John D.Sterman, PhD Field Leader and Jay W. Forrester MIT Professor of System Dynamics and Engineering Systems

Director, MIT System Dynamics Group
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David Miller, PhD

Clean Energy Ventures, Co-founder and Managing Partner

Entrepreneurship & System Dynamics

Entrepreneurialism is risk-taking, leadership, strategy, vision, resilience, value creation, and hard work. Strategy is front and center in the face of uncertainty and when results are not meeting expectations. What is the right marketing model? How do we increase product adoption? What are the barriers? How can we improve strategic insight?

System dynamics models capture reinforcing and balancing loops resulting in growth or decline and delays experienced in entrepreneurship, like what drives innovation, new products and services, customer acquisition, barriers or delays to growth through regulation, and more. Simulating models about adoption, growth limitations, and other dynamics provides an understanding of the most influential factors at play, including decision thinking.

Decision-making behavior is crucial to study and understand. System Dynamics simulations challenge assumptions in a risk-free environment while increasing action learning that can be applied in real-world scenarios.

Event Features

Interactive Simulation

In this live, web-based simulation interactive event, participants play the role of the founder of a new startup company in the exciting and competitive clean tech sector.

Learning Objective

Experience the challenges of building a startup company in a demanding competitive environment, including financial, human resource, strategic, and other decisions.

Action Learning

Encouraging exploration and innovation, simulations are risk-free environments to challenge mental models and day-to-day assumptions.

MIT System Dynamics Seminar | Document the Model! What about the Modeling Process?

Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information.

You are invited to attend the System Dynamics Seminar being held on Friday, December 8th from 12:30-2:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/98105285349 (Password: SDFA23). Our guest speaker will be Warren Farr (Informed Dynamic Solutions) presenting Document the Model! What about the Modeling Process? (see abstract and brief bio below, announcement and paper attached). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email will be sent out closer to the date.

If you would also like to schedule a 30-minute 1:1 meeting with him before or after the seminar, please fill out the following link by COB Friday, December 1st and I will confirm times and location with a calendar invite: https://rallly.co/invite/CM6MpCN2rGWb. Please notify me if you need to meet over Zoom instead

Abstract:              Documenting the process of building a simulation model is different from documenting the simulation model itself. Good model-building practice includes the discovery of potentially large sets of multimedia data. Organizing and documenting data and the process of collecting it has several advantages including: tightly linking data to its source and the timing of its discovery; separating source data from researcher inference (allowing for independent inspection); maintaining an evolutionary timeline; and easily sharing source data among participants and researchers. The topic of documenting models has been widely discussed. In contrast, this article proposes a data structure and its methods for documenting the process of building a simulation model.

This talk will focus on the motivations for building DynamicVu, an online software for documenting the modeling process using the data structure proposed in the SDR paper. Participants will be asked to reflect on the pros and cons of documenting the modeling process leading to an interactive discussion about best practices for documenting the model and the modeling process. How can such practices be supported in future software tools?

Brief Bio:             Warren Farr holds an MS in System Dynamics from Worcester Polytechnic Institute and an MBA degree from Duke University. Warren is a seasoned business leader with over 35 years of experience. With a technical background, he focuses on how business opportunities change over time and the profitable use of technology. He has been using System Dynamics for the past 15 years to create succinct and engaging strategies that are successfully implemented. Warren is currently vice-chairman of Refrigeration Sales Corporation, a US regional distributor of heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and refrigeration equipment, parts, and supplies. He is also the president of Informed Dynamic Systems, where he creates database solutions and system dynamic simulation models and coaches others in the use of system dynamics. Warren has served on the Policy Council of the System Dynamics Society and is currently a member of its Stewardship Committee.

MIT System Dynamics Seminar | The Shallowness of Deep Division

Please visit the MIT System Dynamics Seminars page for more information.

You are invited to attend the System Dynamics Seminar being held on Friday, November 17th from 12:30-2:00pm EST in the Jay W. Forrester conference room, E62-450, or via Zoom: https://mit.zoom.us/j/98105285349 (Password: SDFA23). Our guest speaker will be Michael Macy (Cornell University) presenting The Shallowness of Deep Division (see abstract and brief bio below, announcement attached). Lunch will be provided to those attending in person and a reminder email will be sent out closer to the date.

If you would also like to schedule a 30-minute 1:1 meeting with him before or after the seminar, please fill out the following Doodle poll by COB Monday, November 13th and I will confirm times and location with a calendar invite: https://doodle.com/meeting/participate/id/bkoKOM6b. Please notify me if you need to meet over Zoom instead.

Abstract

Computational models reveal a tipping point in political polarization beyond which there is a potentially irreversible phase transition with two properties: 1) opinions become aligned across seemingly disparate political and cultural dimensions, and 2) existential threats to shared interests (like a lethal pandemic, catastrophic global warming, or aggression by a foreign adversary) have a divisive rather than unifying effect. This unraveling of the social fabric suggests partisan divisions that are deeply rooted in opposing ideologies. However, an online experiment suggests it may be the other way around. What appear to be irreconcilable differences in an increasingly polarized society may have arisen through a tipping dynamic that might just as easily have tipped the other way but for the luck of the draw among early movers. If so, the depth of the social fissure points to the shallowness of disagreements between tribal combatants whose vitriolic hostility is substantively unwarranted.

About the Presenter

Michael Macy is Distinguished Professor of Arts and Sciences at Cornell and Director of the Social Dynamics Lab. With support from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Google, Yahoo! Research, DARPA, IARPA, and the Korean National Research Foundation, his research team has used computational models, online laboratory experiments, and digital traces of device-mediated interaction to explore familiar but enigmatic social patterns, including network “wormholes,” circadian rhythms on Twitter and Spotify, racial discrimination on Airbnb, lifestyle politics, the polarization of science, network mobility, and partisan unpredictability. His research has been published in Science, PNAS, Science Advances, Nature Human Behaviour, American Journal of Sociology, American Sociological Review, and Annual Review of Sociology.