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Webinar Highlights & Recording: Digital Twin Business Models for Strategy and Operational Management

We had the opportunity to delve into the world of business model simulations with industry experts Kim Warren, founder of Strategy Dynamics, and Martin Lycko, Customer Success Manager at Silico, this webinar provided invaluable insights into strategic planning and operational management using System Dynamics. 

The concept of a “Digital Twin” is a dynamic virtual model of a business or part of a business. The transformative potential of digital twins lies in their capacity to closely mirror actual performance and predict the evolution of broader systemic influences. Lycko highlighted Silico’s role in implementing effective digital twin architectures that can significantly improve organizational performance.

The participants were walked through examples where System Dynamics and digital twins had been leveraged to optimize business performance and drive competitive advantage. These examples underscored the expansive scope and adaptability of these business tools, validating their efficacy and viability.

In a rapidly evolving business landscape, the utilization of System Dynamics and Digital Twins presents a compelling approach to strategy and operational management. This enlightening webinar underscored the importance of these tools in enabling organizations to better understand their systems, optimize their performance, and drive competitive advantage. As we look to the future, it’s clear that these innovative models will play an increasingly vital role in business planning and strategy.

Watch the recording below

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Resources

About the Speakers

Kim Warren is the founder of Strategy Dynamics, helping organizations improve their planning and strategy implementation. Kim spent 15 years in senior strategy roles in business before joining the Strategy faculty at London Business School, where he taught MBA and Executive programs. Realizing limitations with existing strategy methods, he developed powerful strategy dynamics frameworks. Kim is the author of several books, including Competitive Strategy Dynamics and Strategic Management Dynamics, and has collaborated with leading consulting firms to extend the scope of Strategy Dynamics’ impact. His work has also been directly applicable to issues in international development. Kim has an engineering background, an MBA, and a Ph.D. from London Business School. He was awarded the Jay Wright Forrester Award by the International System Dynamics Society in 2005 and was the Society’s President in 2013.

Martin Lycko is a Customer Success Manager at Silico. Silico’s simulation platform empowers organizations to create Digital Twins that span teams and functions. With the ability to connect these Digital Twins to real-time data from across the organization, businesses can simulate the impact of decisions virtually in a Digital Twin of the Organisation.

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Webinar Highlights & Recording: System Dynamics Modeling with R.

System Dynamics is a powerful approach to understanding complex systems in various fields, such as public health, ecology, and economics. Prof. Jim Duggan, an expert in applying System Dynamics and data science methods to public health, recently hosted a webinar on System Dynamics Modeling with R. In this session, Prof. Duggan provided insights into R’s capabilities for data analysis, visualization, and manipulation, as well as building and running Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models. Additionally, he discussed using R’s Shiny framework for creating interactive web apps and the prospect of forming a joint digital science tools group for R and Python users.

Exploring R’s Capabilities

Prof. Duggan showcased R’s potential by introducing packages such as ggplot2 and dplyr for data manipulation and visualization, deSolve for building models, and Tidyverse for data analysis. Moreover, he demonstrated creating interactive web apps using the Shiny package.

Visualizing Data with ggplot2 and GGCloud2

Ggplot2, a library from the Tidyverse, enables users to create graphs in R. Prof. Duggan demonstrated creating scatter plots with different visual properties, such as color, using the ggplot function with specific arguments. He also highlighted GGCloud2 as a flexible visualization tool that adds a fourth dimension to a plot using the facetwrap function.

Tidying Data in R

Prof. Duggan emphasized the importance of tidying data for easier processing in R. He showcased the use of pivot_longer for converting wide data into a tidy data format and dplyr as a powerful package for summarizing data. Techniques like grouping, summarizing, and data transformation can be performed using Tidyverse tools.

Building and Running ODE Models

R can be used to build and run ODE models, as Prof. Duggan demonstrated by defining stocks using vectors and generating models automatically with the deSolve package. He also discussed how Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be used to calibrate data using System Dynamics models, helping to find parameters from a dataset.

Interactive Web Apps with Shiny

Shiny, R’s framework for creating interactive web apps, was another key focus of the webinar. Prof. Duggan explained how Shiny’s reactive programming automatically updates outputs based on input changes, requiring minimal HTML, CSS, and JavaScript knowledge. The server function links inputs to outputs and generates new graphs based on input changes.

Conclusion

Prof. Jim Duggan’s webinar on System Dynamics Modeling with R provided valuable insights into the capabilities of R for data analysis, visualization, manipulation, and ODE model building. The session was an excellent resource for those interested in exploring R’s applications in System Dynamics and data science.

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About the Speakers

Prof. Jim Duggan’s research focus is the area of applying System Dynamics and data science methods to public health. This includes using System Dynamics to support pandemic preparedness and response, modeling scenarios of infectious disease outbreaks and applying agile software design methods to develop a safety planning mobile app to address suicidality in young people attending community mental health services in Ireland. Prof. Duggan is a Managing Editor for the System Dynamics Review and a member of the World Health Organisation’s Global Outbreak and Response Network (GOARN).

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Digital Twin Business Models for Strategy and Operational Management

11 am NY | 4 pm London | 12 am Beijing | Time Converter

Digital Twin Business Models for Strategy and Operational Management

In the business field, dynamic models have long been used for simulating long-term plans (3+ years) and medium-term challenges and issues playing out over a few months or quarters. But models have also been used to understand shorter-term phenomena, such as in supply-chain and service-delivery cases. Often, though, the same structures and mechanisms operate over both short and long-time scales. Examples include customer acquisition and retention, and staffing (hiring, promotion, and turnover), and performance-improvement programs. This webinar will show how a single model can capture both short-term and strategic views of the same issue, enabling management to have a coherent long-term plan and to check the impact of that plan on short-term tactical episodes. Taken to the extreme, this approach can get close to offering a “digital twin” of a business or some part of the business, that closely matches its actual performance as well as the development of the wider system that drives that performance. Similar considerations may well apply to plans and challenges in other domains. In this webinar, you will learn:

  • The benefits of using System Dynamics to capture both short-term and long-term perspectives of a business issue.
  • How to design and implement effective digital twin architectures that can improve organizational performance.
  • Real-world examples and case studies of how System Dynamics and digital twins have been used to optimize business performance and drive competitive advantage.

About the Speakers

Kim Warren is the founder of Strategy Dynamics, helping organizations improve their planning and strategy implementation. Kim spent 15 years in senior strategy roles in business before joining the Strategy faculty at London Business School, where he taught MBA and Executive programs. Realizing limitations with existing strategy methods, he developed powerful strategy dynamics frameworks. Kim is the author of several books, including Competitive Strategy Dynamics and Strategic Management Dynamics, and has collaborated with leading consulting firms to extend the scope of Strategy Dynamics’ impact. His work has also been directly applicable to issues in international development. Kim has an engineering background, an MBA, and a Ph.D. from London Business School. He was awarded the Jay Wright Forrester Award by the International System Dynamics Society in 2005 and was the Society’s President in 2013.
Martin Lycko is a Customer Success Manager at Silico. Silico’s simulation platform empowers organizations to create Digital Twins that span teams and functions. With the ability to connect these Digital Twins to real-time data from across the organization, businesses can simulate the impact of decisions virtually in a Digital Twin of the Organisation.

Exploring Careers in System Dynamics

The Exploring Careers in System Dynamics webinar, held on March 29, 2023, was an engaging panel discussion featuring experts Sharon Els, Eduardo Romanenko, and Georg Pallaske, moderated by Shane Carnohan. Attendees had the opportunity to learn about the career journeys of these three System Dynamics experts, as well as their personal experiences and views on the field.

Sharon Els, with over two decades of experience in business modeling and simulation, provided insights into her extensive client work, which includes predicting market changes, optimizing corporate resource allocation, and improving project performance. She has advised corporate executives and government leaders on complex strategy, policy, and program challenges at various organizations. According to Sharon, “You want to simplify as much as you can. You don’t simplify the System Dynamics modeling itself. But you simplify your messages and you focus on what they need to solve and their challenges.”

Eduard Romanenko, a System Dynamics expert with a Ph.D. from the University of Bergen, highlighted the relevance and transparency of System Dynamics as a tool, which he believes will remain important in the future. He has been working as a full-time SD modeler and researcher for the past 3.5 years, providing insights into complex issues related to various projects.

Georg Pallaske, a System Dynamics expert and project manager with a passion for sustainability, shared his experience working closely with clients to develop customized analyses to support government decision-making. Georg is also pursuing a Ph.D. at the University of Bergen, focusing on integrated sustainable development policies. According to Georg, “If we talk about scarce resources, inequality, greenhouse gas emissions & climate change, we cannot address these things in isolation. We need people who are able to use System Dynamics and systems thinking, and to actually support them.”

The panelists discussed the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in the field of System Dynamics, as well as the challenges and opportunities that come with it. Attendees gained valuable insights into addressing complex business challenges and integrating System Dynamics into real-world professions.

Whether you’re a student exploring your career options or a seasoned professional looking to broaden your understanding, the “Exploring Careers in System Dynamics” webinar provided an excellent opportunity to learn from experts in the field.

Watch the recording below

Whoops, this recording is available for members and ticket purchasers only. Please login to verify. If you’re not a member, purchase a membership here. You can also buy a ticket to watch the recording here.

About the Speakers

Sharon Els is an expert in business modeling and simulation with over two decades of experience. Her extensive client work includes predicting market changes, optimizing corporate resource allocation, and improving project performance. She has advised corporate executives and government leaders on complex strategy, policy, and program challenges at various technology, aerospace, finance, gaming, and government organizations. Sharon’s insights and expertise have been instrumental in providing actionable recommendations and solutions to her clients. She currently works at Sage Analysis Group, where she continues to help organizations navigate complex business challenges.

Eduard Romanenko is a System Dynamics expert who holds a Ph.D. in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen (2022) and a European Master’s degree in System Dynamics (2014). He has been working as a full-time SD modeler and researcher for the past 3.5 years. Eduard has provided SD modeling capacity for various projects, including a project on urban stormwater management in Oslo and a 5-country EU-funded project on adolescent overweight and obesity. His contributions have provided insights into complex issues related to these projects.

Georg Pallaske is a System Dynamics expert and project manager with a passion for sustainability. He works at KnowlEdge Srl., where he develops customized analyses to support government decision-making. Georg is also pursuing a PhD at the University of Bergen, focusing on integrated sustainable development policies. As a project manager, he works closely with clients from inception to the presentation of results.

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Engaging Younger Audiences in Climate Change Education

This webinar focused on engaging younger audiences in climate change education using the analogy of a bathtub. Linda Booth Sweeney, a systems educator, and author shared innovative ways to educate children about climate change and provided age-appropriate and impactful learning experiences.

We started with a poll that asked attendees about their concern over rising climate anxiety among youth, and where they would start when a young person asks why we have climate change. The poll results showed that most attendees were either extremely or somewhat concerned about rising climate anxiety among youth, and would start with emissions or our human impact on the environment when explaining why we have climate change.

Linda Booth Sweeney introduced the Think Like a Bathtub video created for the COP26 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow to explain the basics of climate change dynamics. Attendees also got to learn about an interactive, augmented reality Think Like a Batjtub app, designed as a hands-on educational tool to demonstrate understanding.

To further engage younger audiences, Linda Booth Sweeney shared experiential games from her book, The Climate Change Playbook. Attendees were also provided with climate bathtub-related resources and journal articles to further educate themselves and their students.

This webinar provided educators, parents, researchers, and concerned citizens with the tools and resources to engage younger audiences in climate change education. The analogy of a bathtub proved to be an effective way to help children understand the complexities of climate change and inspire action. With Linda Booth Sweeney’s expertise in systems education and her passion for writing children’s books, we can look forward to more innovative and impactful learning experiences in the future.

For a TLAB talk or webinar run for your group, contact Linda (linda@lindaboothsweeney.net).

Watch the recording below

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About the Speaker

Linda Booth Sweeney is a learning expert who specializes in complex systems. In her System Leadership Labs, Linda works to give leaders space to think differently, and to experiment with language, visuals, tools, and knowledge architecture that better mirrors the complexity they are navigating. Linda co-founded Toggle Labs, a metaverse education studio, in 2018 to offer people of all ages immersive, learn/do opportunities to work with complex systems and co-create healthier futures. She is co-author of The Systems Thinking Playbook, The Climate Change Playbook, and numerous other books and journal articles. Linda also has a passion for writing children’s books. Her next book, Apart Together, is a child’s first book of system thinking and will be published by Balzer & Bray in September 2023. For more on Linda’s work, see on systems visit lindaboothsweeney.net, and lindaboothsweeney.com for her work on children’s education.

Resources

1. THREE-MINUTE VIDEO: Youth-narrated Video. Explains fundamentals. Start here!

2. AUGMENTED REALITY APP (pilot): Fun, interactive AR app to engage students (ages 8 and up) in 1 of 4 key shapes of climate change — a bathtub. Students engage in thought experiments around our current rates of global warming pollution, then demonstrate their understanding with peers and adults. How to use the app video for educators here.

3. BOOK: The Climate Change Playbook.

4. EXPERIMENTAL GROUP GAME: A group game suitable for ages 8-88, and groups of up to 25. Download a free PDF of the Bathtub game instructions here

5. RESEARCH: See TLAB Pinterest page with related resources and journal articles

7. STAY IN THE LOOP: Sign up here to receive updates on TLAB and other Linda news.

8. SUPPORT: Interested in supporting this initiative? Please donate here.

CONTACTS

Dr. Linda Booth Sweeney
linda@lindaboothsweeney.net

togglelab.com (metaverse education)
lindaboothsweeney.net (systems thinking)
lindaboothsweeney.com (children’s books)

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Exploring Careers in System Dynamics

11 am NY | 4 pm London | 12 am Beijing | Time Converter

Exploring Careers in System Dynamics

Join us for an engaging panel discussion on careers in System Dynamics featuring experts Sharon Els, Eduardo Romanovski, and Georg Pallaske, moderated by Shane Carnohan. This session will provide attendees with a look into the careers of three System Dynamics experts, with discussion and advice on pursuing and maintaining a successful career.

During the panel discussion, attendees will have the opportunity to hear about the panelists’ personal experiences, career journeys, and views on the field of System Dynamics. Topics that will be covered include the skills and knowledge needed to succeed, challenges and opportunities in the field, and integrating System Dynamics into real-world professions. Learn from their extensive experience working with government and corporate clients and gain valuable insights into addressing complex business challenges.

Whether you’re a student exploring your career options or a seasoned professional looking to collaborate or broaden your understanding, this panel discussion is an excellent opportunity to gain valuable insights and learn from experts in the field.

About the Speakers

Sharon Els is an expert in business modeling and simulation with over two decades of experience. Her extensive client work includes predicting market changes, optimizing corporate resource allocation, and improving project performance. She has advised corporate executives and government leaders on complex strategy, policy, and program challenges at various technology, aerospace, finance, gaming, and government organizations. Sharon’s insights and expertise have been instrumental in providing actionable recommendations and solutions to her clients. She currently works at Sage Analysis Group, where she continues to help organizations navigate complex business challenges.

Eduard Romanenko is a System Dynamics expert who holds a Ph.D. in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen (2022) and a European Master’s degree in System Dynamics (2014). He has been working as a full-time SD modeler and researcher for the past 3.5 years. Eduard has provided SD modeling capacity for various projects, including a project on urban stormwater management in Oslo and a 5-country EU-funded project on adolescent overweight and obesity. His contributions have provided insights into complex issues related to these projects.

Georg Pallaske is a System Dynamics expert and project manager with a passion for sustainability. He works at KnowlEdge Srl., where he develops customized analyses to support government decision-making. Georg is also pursuing a PhD at the University of Bergen, focusing on integrated sustainable development policies. As a project manager, he works closely with clients from inception to the presentation of results.

 

The Role of Creativity in System Dynamics and Systems Thinking

A thought-provoking discussion led by internationally renowned expert Dennis Sherwood, as we explore the concept of creativity in System Dynamics and Systems Thinking. Delve into questions such as what precisely creativity is, how it differs from related concepts, and whether it’s just a natural attribute or a skill that can be learned, practiced, and enriched.

In this webinar, we gained a deeper understanding of the role of creativity in System Dynamics and systems thinking and learned about:

  • The differences between creativity and related concepts such as discovery, invention, innovation, entrepreneurship, and design thinking
  • Whether creativity can be developed and enriched as a skill
  • The concept of “goodness” in ideas and how it relates to creativity
  • The potential impact of AI on human creativity
  • Valuable insights into the role of creativity in your projects.

Watch the recording below

Whoops, this recording is available for members and ticket purchasers only. Please login to verify. If you’re not a member, purchase a membership here. You can also buy a ticket to watch the recording here.

About the Speaker

Dennis Sherwood has been running his own UK-based consultancy, The Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Company Limited, for the last 20 years, specializing in all aspects of organizational innovation and creativity, including applying systems thinking and System Dynamics modeling whenever the opportunity arises! Dennis first became aware of the systems perspective when a consulting partner at Deloitte, and had the great benefit of being a student of John Morecroft at London Business School. Subsequently, Dennis was an Executive Director at Goldman Sachs and Managing Director of the UK operations of SRI (Stanford Research Institute) Consulting. Dennis has written many journal articles and blogs, and is the author of 15 books, including Seeing the Forest for the Trees – A manager’s guide to applying systems thinking (Nicholas Brealey Publishing, 2002), Smart Things to Know about Innovation and Creativity (Capstone Publishing, 2001), How to be Creative – A practical guide for the Mathematical Sciences, co-authored with Professor Nicholas Higham FRS FREng (SIAM, 2022), Creativity for Scientists and Engineers (UK Institute of Physics, 2022) and Strategic Thinking Illustrated – Strategy made visual using systems thinking (Taylor and Francis/Routledge, 2022).

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Celebrating Women’s International Day

Over the past several decades, more women have become part of the System Dynamics field, greatly increasing gender diversity in our discipline. We have many amazing, inspiring, brilliant, and visionary female leaders. Today we highlight women in the field who have published books related to System Dynamics and systems thinking, although this list is not exhaustive.

Sustainability | Environment

Systems Thinking

Pre-College Education | Children’s Books | Teacher’s Manuals

Applied System Dynamics and Systems Thinking | Methodology | Organizational Change

Historical

  • Deborah Andersen and David Andersen: Theories of Decision Making: An Annotated Bibliography.
  • MIT Artificial Intelligence Group: John McCarthy, Robert Brayton, Daniel Edwards, Phyllis Fox, Louis Hodes, David Luckham, Klim Maling, David Park, Stephen Russel: LISP I: Programmer’s Manual
    • In 1959, Phyllis Fox and Alexander Pugh wrote the first version of DYNAMO (DYNAmic MOdels) and the system dynamics language that became the industry standard for over thirty years).

Use the button below If you’d like to add an author and/or book to our bibliography:

Donella Meadows

“We, humans, are smart enough to have created complex systems and amazing productivity; surely we are also smart enough to make sure that everyone shares our bounty, and surely we are smart enough to sustainably steward the natural world upon which we all depend.”

Donella (Dana) Meadows was an inspiring leader, scholar, writer, teacher, a Pew Scholar in Conservation and Environment, and a MacArthur Fellow, and was one of the most influential environmental thinkers of the twentieth century. After receiving a Ph.D. in biophysics from Harvard, she joined a team at MIT applying the relatively new tools of System Dynamics to global problems. While Donella Meadows researched and wrote about global problems, she herself also practiced local solutions, a living personification of Rene Dubos’ famous expression, “Think Globally, Act Locally.”

Donella’s ideas, insights, teachings, environmental leadership, and belief in the capacity of humans to create a sustainable world continue to inspire and motivate us today.

Visit the Donella Meadows Project by the Academy for Systems Change to learn more about Dana’s life and work.

Donella Meadows wrote and co-authored several books, including the following: 

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Thinking in Systems A Primer
Beyond the Limits by Donella Meadows. Sustainability and climate change.

System Dynamics Modeling with R. An Interactive Workshop

11 am NY | 4 pm London | 12 am Beijing | Time Converter

System Dynamics Modelling with R. An Interactive Workshop

Join us for an exciting workshop that will take your modeling to the next level by integrating R with System Dynamics. In this interactive session, James (Jim) Duggan from the University of Galway will introduce you to R’s tidyverse and key tools like ggplot2, dplyr, and purrr to process rectangular data and support System Dynamics modeling. You’ll learn how to model using deSolve, process large simulation data sets, and run code examples using your own account on Posit Cloud. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to boost your modeling skills!

Please create your free account on Posit Cloud prior to the workshop.

About the Speaker

Prof. Jim Duggan’s research focus is the area of applying System Dynamics and data science methods to public health. This includes using System Dynamics to support pandemic preparedness and response, modeling scenarios of infectious disease outbreaks and applying agile software design methods to develop a safety planning mobile app to address suicidality in young people attending community mental health services in Ireland. Prof. Duggan is a Managing Editor for the System Dynamics Review and a member of the World Health Organisation’s Global Outbreak and Response Network (GOARN).

Planning and Managing Performance Improvement Programs

See also a more extensive article based on this post, and watch the recording below on the topic.

Organizations of all sizes and types undertake programs of effort to improve their performance, whether it’s in the areas of health and safety, net-zero efforts, or digital transformation. But sustaining momentum for such efforts is tough, and many fail completely.

It turns out that such programs share a common structure, which can be used to assess how the program may progress, how benefits may grow over time, and the cost and effort of achieving them (figure 1).

Performance-improvement programs generally aim to eliminate or mitigate some problematic outcomes such as staff injuries, the loss of critical data, excessive energy use, and inefficient business processes. Those problematic outcomes are caused by previously unidentified problem drivers – hazards in business facilities, data vulnerabilities, inefficient or under-controlled energy-using assets, and inefficient business processes.

So the basic aim is to eliminate or mitigate those problem drivers. This essentially consists of two overlapping efforts [1] to find and quantify those problem drivers, then [2] to eliminate or mitigate those problem drivers that are found.

As benefits start to become apparent, two self-reinforcing mechanisms (R) kick in. First, the staff becomes engaged in its success and adds – often greatly – to the discovery of those unknown opportunities. This boosts leaders’ confidence, so financial savings from the program can be recycled to speed up the rate at which benefits are realized.

In due course, we run out of unknown opportunities to find, and the cost-benefit of remaining opportunities declines – two balancing mechanisms (B) that ultimately limit the benefits that can be gained.

Figure 1 – The overall structure of the system that underlies improvement programs.

 

Reviewing real-world cases revealed how the principles above actually work in practice. One example concerned a 2-year effort on energy-saving by a large ready-meals producer operating several facilities.

 Management appointed an energy manager, who soon brought monthly reports to the executive team, itemizing savings opportunities and specifying their impact, cost, and implementation steps. Those opportunities brought further benefits, such as lower maintenance costs and production downtime. The visible benefits led to staff adopting energy-saving behavior and finding still more opportunities. In under 2 years, the program saved 40% of the organization’s energy use – with no significant capital investment. Future investment will drive down energy use still further.

 The structure in figure 1 can be quantified and modeled,  then used to manage the program over time (A demonstration model is available at sdl.re/EnergySaving1, and a simple guide for its software is at sdcourses.com/silico-guide).

Background

The figure 1 framework and the working models that prove its value emerged from work for the British Standards Institution (BSI). BSI publishes internationally-recognized “ISO” management standards on a very wide range of topics. BSI commissioned a series of “serious games” to show the key choices and impact of adopting Standards – explore the first few games here, all built on working models of figure 1. BSI also wanted a game to encourage small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs), to drive down greenhouse gas emissions. See The NetZero Challenge.

Figure 2 –The results screen of the NetZero Challenge game

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About the Speaker

Kim Warren is an experienced strategy professional, teacher, and publisher of online courses and teaching resources on business modeling – fast becoming a mainstream capability for executives, consultants, and business students. He was awarded the Jay Wright Forrester Award by the International System Dynamics Society in 2005 and was the Society’s President in 2013.

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