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ABSTRACT: This work deals with the development of a system dynamics model for prevalence, prevention, and control of diabetes in Varanasi. The model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 2017 and portray possible future through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long-term, and significant delays between prevention effort and improvement in diabetes outcomes.
The simulation model gives the prevalence of diabetes in Varanasi for the years 2030 as 0.52 million and 35.64 %. The study suggests involving 520 specialized doctors for management of diabetes in the city to achieve a ratio of one doctor per thousand population. The research examines the effect of the control efforts by using a ramped increase in the key performance variable over ten years.
The results conclude that despite the proposed policy measures the diagnosed diabetes population will decrease while undiagnosed diabetes population will increase and then decrease. Total population suffering from diabetes will increase irrespective of the policy measures, hence only option before policymakers is to tackle diabetes at prediabetes stage and make preventive and curative healthcare available at affordable cost. The method suggested by the study can be easily adapted for developing similar models for other chronic diseases like Asthma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Tuberculosis.
SPEAKER BIO: Dr. Vinaytosh Mishra is an Associate Professor for Healthcare Management (Management, Digital Health, and Heath Analytics) at the College of Healthcare Management and Economics, Gulf Medical University, Ajman (UAE). Dr. Mishra has done his engineering and Ph.D. from the prestigious India Insititute of Technology (BHU), Varanasi. He has more than 16 years of experience in industries like Healthcare, EdTech, Finance, and Information Technology. He is also a mentor for leading business incubators in India and UAE and a domain expert for AI implementation with Al Hathboor Bikal.ai, UAE.
Dr. Vinaytosh Mishra has published in journals of international repute (ABDC/Scopus/SSCI) and served as an editorial board member of reputed journals such as Hospital Topics, Frontiers in Digital Health, and Abhigyan. He also has an international patent in the field of image processing and NLP-based innovative solution in healthcare. His research interests include Digital Transformation, Healthcare Management, Health Economics, Healthcare Supply Chains, Complex Adaptive Systems, Healthcare Systems, and Digital Health.