Webinar: The effect of within-host dynamics on diversity of a multi-strain pathogen

The Oceania Chapter of the System Dynamics Society Webinar Series.

The effect of within-host dynamics on diversity of a multi-strain pathogen: Presentation of Dana Meadows Award winning work

Presenter: Nefel Tellioğlu, Doctoral Student (University of Melbourne) and 2022 Dana Meadows Award Winner

Abstract: Multi-strain pathogens cause millions of infections annually. High strain diversity complicates control of multi-strain pathogens. We have limited understanding about how diversity is maintained in populations given that strains compete both directly (within an individual host) and indirectly (via host immunity). Previous studies tend to make simplifying assumptions about direct competition. We propose an agent-based model to compare the dynamics of multi-strain pathogens under different assumptions about direct competition between strains. We find that direct competition can affect epidemiological dynamics. Our results suggest that while direct and indirect competition can each decrease strain diversity when they act in isolation, they may increase strain diversity when they act together. We argue that studies using multi-strain transmission models should examine sensitivity to assumptions about direct competition. Omitting consideration of direct competition can lead to inaccurate estimates of the effectiveness of control strategies as changes in strain diversity shift the level of direct strain competition.