2022 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
How are China High-speed Railway Going under Government Assistance?
Dehui Wang
Post on July 18, 2022
In the past ten years, China High-speed Railway has achieved a great success on construction and development, according to the research report from world bank 2019. However, the report also indicates the quite low EIRR (8%) and FIRR (6%). The achievement is guaranteed by a continual large invest of China railway company and China Government assistance. In this project, we use SD model to catch main structure which covers “Invest-Construction-Operation” and how government assistance works with the construction and operation of High-speed railway. The dynamics of structure indicates the significant meaning both and problems from government assistance. Firstly, in construction stage, abundant invest and fast construction would lead to overshooting which causes resource waste and social problems. Then in operation stage, the structure shows how China government realize the positive effect of high-speed railway to its most to economics and livelihood with financing assistance. On the other hand, the government intervene would also lead to an independent management problem to railway company. Therefore, based on the structure analysis and simulation result from SD model, the paper would give a detailed demonstration process for these findings in project and try to give a constructive proposal.
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2021 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Investigating the effectiveness of reopening policies before vaccination during a pandemic
Ying Qian 钱颖
Parallel present at July 26, 2021
Lockdown policies were widely applied during the COVID-19 pandemic to control the spread of the virus before the availability of a vaccine, causing significant economic impact and social disruption. Early reopening is preferred, yet it introduces the risk of further outbreaks. So far, the effectiveness of reopening policies remains unclear. A system dynamics COVID-19 model, SEIHR(Q), was constructed by integrating infection prevention and control measures implemented in Wuhan into the classic SEIR epidemiological model. Simulation results showed that track-and-trace measures were of significance in affecting reopen risk. In Wuhan’s case, with comprehensive contact tracing implemented, there would have been almost no risk for reopening. With partial contact tracing, reopening would have led to a minor second wave of the epidemic. However, if only limited contact tracing had been implemented, a more severe second outbreak of the epidemic would have occurred, overwhelming the available medical resources. When the ability to implement a track-trace-quarantine policy is fixed, the epidemiological criteria need to be further taken into account. A matrix was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of the reopening policies, based on simulation results. The model simulation provides evidence-based decision support for safe reopening during an ongoing epidemic.
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