Webinar Highlights & Recording: Digital Twin Business Models for Strategy and Operational Management
We had the opportunity to delve into the world of business model simulations with industry experts Kim Warren, founder of Strategy Dynamics, and Martin Lycko, Customer Success Manager at Silico, this webinar provided invaluable insights into strategic planning and operational management using System Dynamics.
The concept of a “Digital Twin” is a dynamic virtual model of a business or part of a business. The transformative potential of digital twins lies in their capacity to closely mirror actual performance and predict the evolution of broader systemic influences. Lycko highlighted Silico’s role in implementing effective digital twin architectures that can significantly improve organizational performance.
The participants were walked through examples where System Dynamics and digital twins had been leveraged to optimize business performance and drive competitive advantage. These examples underscored the expansive scope and adaptability of these business tools, validating their efficacy and viability.
In a rapidly evolving business landscape, the utilization of System Dynamics and Digital Twins presents a compelling approach to strategy and operational management. This enlightening webinar underscored the importance of these tools in enabling organizations to better understand their systems, optimize their performance, and drive competitive advantage. As we look to the future, it’s clear that these innovative models will play an increasingly vital role in business planning and strategy.
Related Courses
Dynamic Business Modeling
An online course that guides you in creating a quantified, simulated “digital twin” of your business, highlighting inter-dependencies and feedback points.
Society members get a 20% discount
Strategy Dynamics for Leaders
An online course that will teach you how to build strategic plans with a digital twin of your business or challenge. Based on rock-solid strategy dynamics frameworks, you will have full confidence that your plans and decisions will achieve your performance targets.
Society members get a 20% discount
Watch the recording below
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About the Speakers
Kim Warren is the founder of Strategy Dynamics, helping organizations improve their planning and strategy implementation. Kim spent 15 years in senior strategy roles in business before joining the Strategy faculty at London Business School, where he taught MBA and Executive programs. Realizing limitations with existing strategy methods, he developed powerful strategy dynamics frameworks. Kim is the author of several books, including Competitive Strategy Dynamics and Strategic Management Dynamics, and has collaborated with leading consulting firms to extend the scope of Strategy Dynamics’ impact. His work has also been directly applicable to issues in international development. Kim has an engineering background, an MBA, and a Ph.D. from London Business School. He was awarded the Jay Wright Forrester Award by the International System Dynamics Society in 2005 and was the Society’s President in 2013.
Martin Lycko is a Customer Success Manager at Silico. Silico’s simulation platform empowers organizations to create Digital Twins that span teams and functions. With the ability to connect these Digital Twins to real-time data from across the organization, businesses can simulate the impact of decisions virtually in a Digital Twin of the Organisation.
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NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum)
On behalf of the NATO Modelling & Simulation Centre of Excellence, we are pleased to confirm that the 2023 Edition of the NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum) will be held from 3-5 October 2023 at the ERGIFE PALACE...
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Join us
Webinar Highlights & Recording: System Dynamics Modeling with R.
System Dynamics is a powerful approach to understanding complex systems in various fields, such as public health, ecology, and economics. Prof. Jim Duggan, an expert in applying System Dynamics and data science methods to public health, recently hosted a webinar on System Dynamics Modeling with R. In this session, Prof. Duggan provided insights into R’s capabilities for data analysis, visualization, and manipulation, as well as building and running Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models. Additionally, he discussed using R’s Shiny framework for creating interactive web apps and the prospect of forming a joint digital science tools group for R and Python users.
Exploring R’s Capabilities
Prof. Duggan showcased R’s potential by introducing packages such as ggplot2 and dplyr for data manipulation and visualization, deSolve for building models, and Tidyverse for data analysis. Moreover, he demonstrated creating interactive web apps using the Shiny package.
Visualizing Data with ggplot2 and GGCloud2
Ggplot2, a library from the Tidyverse, enables users to create graphs in R. Prof. Duggan demonstrated creating scatter plots with different visual properties, such as color, using the ggplot function with specific arguments. He also highlighted GGCloud2 as a flexible visualization tool that adds a fourth dimension to a plot using the facetwrap function.
Tidying Data in R
Prof. Duggan emphasized the importance of tidying data for easier processing in R. He showcased the use of pivot_longer for converting wide data into a tidy data format and dplyr as a powerful package for summarizing data. Techniques like grouping, summarizing, and data transformation can be performed using Tidyverse tools.
Building and Running ODE Models
R can be used to build and run ODE models, as Prof. Duggan demonstrated by defining stocks using vectors and generating models automatically with the deSolve package. He also discussed how Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be used to calibrate data using System Dynamics models, helping to find parameters from a dataset.
Interactive Web Apps with Shiny
Shiny, R’s framework for creating interactive web apps, was another key focus of the webinar. Prof. Duggan explained how Shiny’s reactive programming automatically updates outputs based on input changes, requiring minimal HTML, CSS, and JavaScript knowledge. The server function links inputs to outputs and generates new graphs based on input changes.
Conclusion
Prof. Jim Duggan’s webinar on System Dynamics Modeling with R provided valuable insights into the capabilities of R for data analysis, visualization, manipulation, and ODE model building. The session was an excellent resource for those interested in exploring R’s applications in System Dynamics and data science.
Watch the recording for more!
Watch the recording below
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About the Speakers
Prof. Jim Duggan’s research focus is the area of applying System Dynamics and data science methods to public health. This includes using System Dynamics to support pandemic preparedness and response, modeling scenarios of infectious disease outbreaks and applying agile software design methods to develop a safety planning mobile app to address suicidality in young people attending community mental health services in Ireland. Prof. Duggan is a Managing Editor for the System Dynamics Review and a member of the World Health Organisation’s Global Outbreak and Response Network (GOARN).
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On behalf of the NATO Modelling & Simulation Centre of Excellence, we are pleased to confirm that the 2023 Edition of the NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum) will be held from 3-5 October 2023 at the ERGIFE PALACE...
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Exploring Careers in System Dynamics
The Exploring Careers in System Dynamics webinar, held on March 29, 2023, was an engaging panel discussion featuring experts Sharon Els, Eduardo Romanenko, and Georg Pallaske, moderated by Shane Carnohan. Attendees had the opportunity to learn about the career journeys of these three System Dynamics experts, as well as their personal experiences and views on the field.
Sharon Els, with over two decades of experience in business modeling and simulation, provided insights into her extensive client work, which includes predicting market changes, optimizing corporate resource allocation, and improving project performance. She has advised corporate executives and government leaders on complex strategy, policy, and program challenges at various organizations. According to Sharon, “You want to simplify as much as you can. You don’t simplify the System Dynamics modeling itself. But you simplify your messages and you focus on what they need to solve and their challenges.”
Eduard Romanenko, a System Dynamics expert with a Ph.D. from the University of Bergen, highlighted the relevance and transparency of System Dynamics as a tool, which he believes will remain important in the future. He has been working as a full-time SD modeler and researcher for the past 3.5 years, providing insights into complex issues related to various projects.
Georg Pallaske, a System Dynamics expert and project manager with a passion for sustainability, shared his experience working closely with clients to develop customized analyses to support government decision-making. Georg is also pursuing a Ph.D. at the University of Bergen, focusing on integrated sustainable development policies. According to Georg, “If we talk about scarce resources, inequality, greenhouse gas emissions & climate change, we cannot address these things in isolation. We need people who are able to use System Dynamics and systems thinking, and to actually support them.”
The panelists discussed the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in the field of System Dynamics, as well as the challenges and opportunities that come with it. Attendees gained valuable insights into addressing complex business challenges and integrating System Dynamics into real-world professions.
Whether you’re a student exploring your career options or a seasoned professional looking to broaden your understanding, the “Exploring Careers in System Dynamics” webinar provided an excellent opportunity to learn from experts in the field.
Watch the recording below
Whoops, this recording is available for members and ticket purchasers only. Please login to verify. If you’re not a member, purchase a membership here. You can also buy a ticket to watch the recording here.
About the Speakers
Sharon Els is an expert in business modeling and simulation with over two decades of experience. Her extensive client work includes predicting market changes, optimizing corporate resource allocation, and improving project performance. She has advised corporate executives and government leaders on complex strategy, policy, and program challenges at various technology, aerospace, finance, gaming, and government organizations. Sharon’s insights and expertise have been instrumental in providing actionable recommendations and solutions to her clients. She currently works at Sage Analysis Group, where she continues to help organizations navigate complex business challenges.
Eduard Romanenko is a System Dynamics expert who holds a Ph.D. in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen (2022) and a European Master’s degree in System Dynamics (2014). He has been working as a full-time SD modeler and researcher for the past 3.5 years. Eduard has provided SD modeling capacity for various projects, including a project on urban stormwater management in Oslo and a 5-country EU-funded project on adolescent overweight and obesity. His contributions have provided insights into complex issues related to these projects.
Georg Pallaske is a System Dynamics expert and project manager with a passion for sustainability. He works at KnowlEdge Srl., where he develops customized analyses to support government decision-making. Georg is also pursuing a PhD at the University of Bergen, focusing on integrated sustainable development policies. As a project manager, he works closely with clients from inception to the presentation of results.
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On behalf of the NATO Modelling & Simulation Centre of Excellence, we are pleased to confirm that the 2023 Edition of the NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum) will be held from 3-5 October 2023 at the ERGIFE PALACE...
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Join us
Engaging Younger Audiences in Climate Change Education
This webinar focused on engaging younger audiences in climate change education using the analogy of a bathtub. Linda Booth Sweeney, a systems educator, and author shared innovative ways to educate children about climate change and provided age-appropriate and impactful learning experiences.
We started with a poll that asked attendees about their concern over rising climate anxiety among youth, and where they would start when a young person asks why we have climate change. The poll results showed that most attendees were either extremely or somewhat concerned about rising climate anxiety among youth, and would start with emissions or our human impact on the environment when explaining why we have climate change.
Linda Booth Sweeney introduced the Think Like a Bathtub video created for the COP26 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow to explain the basics of climate change dynamics. Attendees also got to learn about an interactive, augmented reality Think Like a Batjtub app, designed as a hands-on educational tool to demonstrate understanding.
To further engage younger audiences, Linda Booth Sweeney shared experiential games from her book, The Climate Change Playbook. Attendees were also provided with climate bathtub-related resources and journal articles to further educate themselves and their students.
This webinar provided educators, parents, researchers, and concerned citizens with the tools and resources to engage younger audiences in climate change education. The analogy of a bathtub proved to be an effective way to help children understand the complexities of climate change and inspire action. With Linda Booth Sweeney’s expertise in systems education and her passion for writing children’s books, we can look forward to more innovative and impactful learning experiences in the future.
For a TLAB talk or webinar run for your group, contact Linda (linda@lindaboothsweeney.net).
Watch the recording below
Whoops, this recording is available for members and ticket purchasers only. Please login to verify. If you’re not a member, purchase a membership here. You can also buy a ticket to watch the recording here.
About the Speaker
Linda Booth Sweeney is a learning expert who specializes in complex systems. In her System Leadership Labs, Linda works to give leaders space to think differently, and to experiment with language, visuals, tools, and knowledge architecture that better mirrors the complexity they are navigating. Linda co-founded Toggle Labs, a metaverse education studio, in 2018 to offer people of all ages immersive, learn/do opportunities to work with complex systems and co-create healthier futures. She is co-author of The Systems Thinking Playbook, The Climate Change Playbook, and numerous other books and journal articles. Linda also has a passion for writing children’s books. Her next book, Apart Together, is a child’s first book of system thinking and will be published by Balzer & Bray in September 2023. For more on Linda’s work, see on systems visit lindaboothsweeney.net, and lindaboothsweeney.com for her work on children’s education.
Resources
1. THREE-MINUTE VIDEO: Youth-narrated Video. Explains fundamentals. Start here!
2. AUGMENTED REALITY APP (pilot): Fun, interactive AR app to engage students (ages 8 and up) in 1 of 4 key shapes of climate change — a bathtub. Students engage in thought experiments around our current rates of global warming pollution, then demonstrate their understanding with peers and adults. How to use the app video for educators here.
3. BOOK: The Climate Change Playbook.
4. EXPERIMENTAL GROUP GAME: A group game suitable for ages 8-88, and groups of up to 25. Download a free PDF of the Bathtub game instructions here
5. RESEARCH: See TLAB Pinterest page with related resources and journal articles
7. STAY IN THE LOOP: Sign up here to receive updates on TLAB and other Linda news.
8. SUPPORT: Interested in supporting this initiative? Please donate here.
CONTACTS
Dr. Linda Booth Sweeney
linda@lindaboothsweeney.net
togglelab.com (metaverse education)
lindaboothsweeney.net (systems thinking)
lindaboothsweeney.com (children’s books)
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From Bergen to Global: UiB’s System Dynamics Group The System Dynamics Group, an autonomous research group at the University of Bergen (UiB) was established in 1971 by professor emeritus Svein Nordbotten. Inspired by the work of Jay W. Forrester, Nordbotten...
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Upcoming Events
NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum)
On behalf of the NATO Modelling & Simulation Centre of Excellence, we are pleased to confirm that the 2023 Edition of the NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum) will be held from 3-5 October 2023 at the ERGIFE PALACE...
Recent Business cases
System Dynamics Unravels ICU Tensions at the Portuguese Oncology Institute
System Dynamics Unravels ICU Tensions at the Portuguese Oncology Institute EXECUTIVE Summary The Portuguese Oncology Institute (IPO) faced a critical challenge in its intensive care unit (ICU) where doctors and nurses experienced high turnover due to tensions with...
System Dynamics Helps Farmers Escape Poverty Trap in Guatemala
System Dynamics Helps Farmers Escape Poverty Trap in Guatemala EXECUTIVE Summary Guatemala holds the 4th highest global ranking for chronic malnutrition, and climate change is intensifying the challenges subsistence farmers face in providing food for their families....
Twinings Uses System Dynamics Games to Enhance HR Capability
Twinings Uses System Dynamics Games to Enhance HR Capability “Realistic simulation is a powerful approach to building capability. The business simulation developed [by Dashboard Simulations and Lane4] gave [Twinings staff] an experience that called for them to develop...
Join us
The Role of Creativity in System Dynamics and Systems Thinking
A thought-provoking discussion led by internationally renowned expert Dennis Sherwood, as we explore the concept of creativity in System Dynamics and Systems Thinking. Delve into questions such as what precisely creativity is, how it differs from related concepts, and whether it’s just a natural attribute or a skill that can be learned, practiced, and enriched.
In this webinar, we gained a deeper understanding of the role of creativity in System Dynamics and systems thinking and learned about:
- The differences between creativity and related concepts such as discovery, invention, innovation, entrepreneurship, and design thinking
- Whether creativity can be developed and enriched as a skill
- The concept of “goodness” in ideas and how it relates to creativity
- The potential impact of AI on human creativity
- Valuable insights into the role of creativity in your projects.
Watch the recording below
Whoops, this recording is available for members and ticket purchasers only. Please login to verify. If you’re not a member, purchase a membership here. You can also buy a ticket to watch the recording here.
About the Speaker
Dennis Sherwood has been running his own UK-based consultancy, The Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Company Limited, for the last 20 years, specializing in all aspects of organizational innovation and creativity, including applying systems thinking and System Dynamics modeling whenever the opportunity arises! Dennis first became aware of the systems perspective when a consulting partner at Deloitte, and had the great benefit of being a student of John Morecroft at London Business School. Subsequently, Dennis was an Executive Director at Goldman Sachs and Managing Director of the UK operations of SRI (Stanford Research Institute) Consulting. Dennis has written many journal articles and blogs, and is the author of 15 books, including Seeing the Forest for the Trees – A manager’s guide to applying systems thinking (Nicholas Brealey Publishing, 2002), Smart Things to Know about Innovation and Creativity (Capstone Publishing, 2001), How to be Creative – A practical guide for the Mathematical Sciences, co-authored with Professor Nicholas Higham FRS FREng (SIAM, 2022), Creativity for Scientists and Engineers (UK Institute of Physics, 2022) and Strategic Thinking Illustrated – Strategy made visual using systems thinking (Taylor and Francis/Routledge, 2022).
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Upcoming Events
NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum)
On behalf of the NATO Modelling & Simulation Centre of Excellence, we are pleased to confirm that the 2023 Edition of the NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum) will be held from 3-5 October 2023 at the ERGIFE PALACE...
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Join us
Planning and Managing Performance Improvement Programs
See also a more extensive article based on this post, and watch the recording below on the topic.
Organizations of all sizes and types undertake programs of effort to improve their performance, whether it’s in the areas of health and safety, net-zero efforts, or digital transformation. But sustaining momentum for such efforts is tough, and many fail completely.
It turns out that such programs share a common structure, which can be used to assess how the program may progress, how benefits may grow over time, and the cost and effort of achieving them (figure 1).
Performance-improvement programs generally aim to eliminate or mitigate some problematic outcomes such as staff injuries, the loss of critical data, excessive energy use, and inefficient business processes. Those problematic outcomes are caused by previously unidentified problem drivers – hazards in business facilities, data vulnerabilities, inefficient or under-controlled energy-using assets, and inefficient business processes.
So the basic aim is to eliminate or mitigate those problem drivers. This essentially consists of two overlapping efforts [1] to find and quantify those problem drivers, then [2] to eliminate or mitigate those problem drivers that are found.
As benefits start to become apparent, two self-reinforcing mechanisms (R) kick in. First, the staff becomes engaged in its success and adds – often greatly – to the discovery of those unknown opportunities. This boosts leaders’ confidence, so financial savings from the program can be recycled to speed up the rate at which benefits are realized.
In due course, we run out of unknown opportunities to find, and the cost-benefit of remaining opportunities declines – two balancing mechanisms (B) that ultimately limit the benefits that can be gained.
Figure 1 – The overall structure of the system that underlies improvement programs.
Reviewing real-world cases revealed how the principles above actually work in practice. One example concerned a 2-year effort on energy-saving by a large ready-meals producer operating several facilities.
Management appointed an energy manager, who soon brought monthly reports to the executive team, itemizing savings opportunities and specifying their impact, cost, and implementation steps. Those opportunities brought further benefits, such as lower maintenance costs and production downtime. The visible benefits led to staff adopting energy-saving behavior and finding still more opportunities. In under 2 years, the program saved 40% of the organization’s energy use – with no significant capital investment. Future investment will drive down energy use still further.
The structure in figure 1 can be quantified and modeled, then used to manage the program over time (A demonstration model is available at sdl.re/EnergySaving1, and a simple guide for its software is at sdcourses.com/silico-guide).
Background
The figure 1 framework and the working models that prove its value emerged from work for the British Standards Institution (BSI). BSI publishes internationally-recognized “ISO” management standards on a very wide range of topics. BSI commissioned a series of “serious games” to show the key choices and impact of adopting Standards – explore the first few games here, all built on working models of figure 1. BSI also wanted a game to encourage small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs), to drive down greenhouse gas emissions. See The NetZero Challenge.
Figure 2 –The results screen of the NetZero Challenge game
Watch the recording below
Whoops, this recording is available for members and ticket purchasers only. Please login to verify. If you’re not a member, purchase a membership here. You can also buy a ticket to watch the recording here.
About the Speaker
Kim Warren is an experienced strategy professional, teacher, and publisher of online courses and teaching resources on business modeling – fast becoming a mainstream capability for executives, consultants, and business students. He was awarded the Jay Wright Forrester Award by the International System Dynamics Society in 2005 and was the Society’s President in 2013.
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From Bergen to Global: UiB’s System Dynamics Group The System Dynamics Group, an autonomous research group at the University of Bergen (UiB) was established in 1971 by professor emeritus Svein Nordbotten. Inspired by the work of Jay W. Forrester, Nordbotten...
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A Digital Twin Business Model in 40 Hours Though long past the date when I should have ‘retired’, I just can’t resist interesting projects, like the one a new friend brought me a few weeks ago. It concerns a small but fast-growing B2B business,...
Upcoming Events
NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum)
On behalf of the NATO Modelling & Simulation Centre of Excellence, we are pleased to confirm that the 2023 Edition of the NATO Computer Assisted Analysis, eXercise, and eXperimentation Forum (CA2X2 Forum) will be held from 3-5 October 2023 at the ERGIFE PALACE...
Recent Business cases
System Dynamics Unravels ICU Tensions at the Portuguese Oncology Institute
System Dynamics Unravels ICU Tensions at the Portuguese Oncology Institute EXECUTIVE Summary The Portuguese Oncology Institute (IPO) faced a critical challenge in its intensive care unit (ICU) where doctors and nurses experienced high turnover due to tensions with...
System Dynamics Helps Farmers Escape Poverty Trap in Guatemala
System Dynamics Helps Farmers Escape Poverty Trap in Guatemala EXECUTIVE Summary Guatemala holds the 4th highest global ranking for chronic malnutrition, and climate change is intensifying the challenges subsistence farmers face in providing food for their families....
Twinings Uses System Dynamics Games to Enhance HR Capability
Twinings Uses System Dynamics Games to Enhance HR Capability “Realistic simulation is a powerful approach to building capability. The business simulation developed [by Dashboard Simulations and Lane4] gave [Twinings staff] an experience that called for them to develop...
Join us
How To Review for ISDC 2023
Reviews provide valuable feedback for authors, offering new perspectives and posing insightful questions to help them improve their work. They can inspire authors to think more deeply about their research, while also exposing reviewers to new ideas and honing their critical evaluation skills. Helpful reviews can also motivate newcomers to the field and foster a sense of belonging within the System Dynamics community. Through the use of reviews, the program committee is able to thoughtfully place work within the broader conference program, allowing for authors to engage with their peers and build a sense of community among those working on similar topics. Conference attendees can then benefit from attending more cohesive and engaging sessions, ultimately leading to a more productive and fulfilling conference experience.
Do you want to become a conference reviewer or improve your reviews? Here are ten tips to write a great review.
Ten Reviewing Tips
1. Don’t be intimidated by the review process. It’s a terrific experience that can help you develop your own critical evaluation skills and expand your knowledge of the field.
2. Start early and don’t rush through the work. Take your time to read and evaluate the paper thoroughly so you can provide constructive feedback to the author.
3. Remember that reviews are not about accepting or rejecting work; they’re about providing feedback and suggestions to help the author improve their work.
4. Be courteous and respectful in your review. Start with a positive comment, summarize the paper, and offer constructive criticism and suggestions for improvement. If you have a different view of the paper, explain your perspective in a respectful way and provide additional resources that might be helpful to the author.
5. If you find yourself struggling to understand a section of the work, don’t assume it’s your fault. Ask the author to clarify the section or explain it in simpler terms for a broader audience.
6. When evaluating the work, pay attention to the assumptions, feedback structure, and parameter values. If it’s not clear how structure relates to behavior, ask the author for more clarification.
7. If your strength lies in theory or practice rather than modeling, your unique perspective will be a great contribution to the author. Consider adding notes to the program chairs to let them know what your strengths are.
8. Make sure you’re familiar with what was asked of the authors in the submission instructions. This will help you evaluate the paper more effectively.
9. Avoid providing unhelpful feedback in your review. Don’t simply summarize the paper without offering any suggestions for improvement. Don’t attack or threaten the author, and don’t be rude or condescending. Systems thinking based papers should be treated as complete papers and not regarded as lesser work for lack of simulation. Slamming the door on the author is not productive; if the paper is not a good fit for the current conference, the author can improve for next year’s conference.
10. Can you volunteer to review a paper if you’ve submitted one of your own? Absolutely! You will not receive your own paper to review. Further, the review process is blind, so you won’t know any author’s identity.
For other conference review questions, contact the conference team.
Student-Organized-Colloquium (SOC) reviews are processed separately. To review for SOC, sign up here.
Watch the recording below
About the Speakers
Allyson Beall King, John Pastor Ansah and Saras Chung are ISDC 2023 Program Chairs.
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Systems Thinking in the Age of Digital Ecosystems
Discover how Systems Thinking can drive world-making innovations and support the evolution of traditional organizational structures and cultures in a rapidly changing business landscape. Navigate the impact of pandemics, environmental disasters, AI, and new technologies with a fresh perspective
Traditional organizational structures and cultures are challenged in today’s world where nothing about business is usual anymore. Pandemic outbreaks, human-made environmental disasters, as well as the growing importance of artificial intelligence and new technologies, are forcing a rethink about the “taken as granted” in management. How can Systems Thinking support the call for world-making innovations?
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About the Speaker
Michael von Kutzschenbach is inspired by the concept of sustainability as balancing corporate profits with environmental and social well-being. He believes that true sustainability can only be achieved through understanding different perspectives and working towards common goals. He aligns his daily actions with this approach, after studying Forest and Environmental Sciences, he received a Ph.D. researching informal networks, and currently works as a business mediator, lecturer, and project manager in various organizations in Germany, Norway, and Switzerland. His areas of research are the impacts of digitization on sustainable corporate management and sustainable entrepreneurship.
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How to Sell System Dynamics (Or Anything Else)
If it’s so good – why is System Dynamics so hard to sell?
The key to selling System Dynamics has nothing to do with what we’ve learned in grad school. Instead, the key is to clarify a fundamental confusion everyone seems to have. When you ask people what makes business development successful they’ll often respond “sales is about personality.” Instead, it should be, “sale is a process.”
Watch the webinar recording on this topic.
This guide is designed for startups, early-career contractors, or other practitioners slogging through the business development cycle of landing system dynamics contracts. Additionally, the concept and application of a sales pipeline is transferable to other applications of system dynamics: grad school or grant applications, employment pursuits, and even publication.
In this article, I cover the basics of a sales pipeline; the difference between sales as a personality vs. sales as a process; and how to use the sales pipeline with added tips and tricks.
What is a Sales Pipeline?
A major confusion that practitioners have about selling technical work is the belief that business development is personality versus a process. I thought that myself for years – that to be “good at sales” was like being good at math. You were either born with the skills or you weren’t.
Sales, however, is a process. The structure of selling as a system is depicted in this simplified aging chain.
The units of measure moving through the aging chain are “Opportunities” (Opps) which represent a potential sale. But opportunities only become a sale in the final outflow of the stock on the far right. Along the way, opportunities either advance along the pipeline to the next stage or get abandoned for various reasons. Structurally speaking both outflows can serve a purpose.
“Knowing which stage an opportunity is in is important, you can’t just take it for granted it will always begin at the left even though most will.”
You want good opportunities to move to the right along the aging chain and opportunities that aren’t ready to move out through the abandonment downwards. Note that all flows are bi-flows. Opportunities may move back and forth horizonally and sometimes abandoned deals re-enter the pipeline back in the same stage they were. I’ve provided a proposal on an opportunity that went cold and was abandoned because the circumstances weren’t right. Years later the buyer sent me an email with the proposal asking if it was still valid. Circumstances had changed. This is why knowing which stage an opportunity is in is important, you can’t just take it for granted it will always begin at the left even though most will.
Learning to see sales as a process through an aging chain provides immediate insights. At each stage, there’s a natural abandonment rate – regardless of personality or salesmanship. What this means is that selling as a process is a numbers game that operates as a process. The more you put in at the left and work the process through the stages, the more you’ll have come out the right.
If it helps, think of the aging chain as a series of ratios and drivers:
This is notional but it illustrates a few key aspects of the ratio and drivers. First, if the ratio is 30:1 from opportunities to engagement and you want to have at least one engagement – do you have 30 opportunities in your pipeline? If you want two engagements, do you have 60? If you’re on a paying engagement that is about to end and you haven’t filled your pipeline with 30 more potential opportunities, where’s your paycheck going to come from?
This “feast or famine” effect is particularly hard for small firms where both selling and delivering are done by the same person. This sales pipeline is also useful for fields other than private-sector business sales. The sales pipeline, ratio, and drivers also apply to non-business uses. Whether you’re pursuing employment, grants, or other opportunities you’ll move through some version of these stages.
“Everything we learned about first-order control, unit dimensionality, and truth & beauty in models only ever gets a chance to shine if first, we have exercised other skills”
The only stage where our technical knowledge of System Dynamics arises is during the proposal. Everything we learned about first-order control, unit dimensionality, and truth & beauty in models only ever gets a chance to shine if first, we have exercised other skills: qualifying and nurturing opportunities to get them to the point of being able to submit a proposal. The value prop of a proposal matters a lot too, but that’s a different blog post.
Stages of the Sales Pipeline – Sellers Perspective:
In this simplified seller’s perspective, the stages of the four stages of the pipeline are:
- Qualifying
- Nurturing
- Proposing
- Selection & Negotiation
Entire books can be written about any one of these – but to get started here are some simple definitions.
Qualifying: This stage is about evaluating opportunities to ensure they have the potential to reach the final stage. This means, at minimum, determining the potential buyer(s) have:
- A clear problem they need to solve.
- A budget with which to solve it.
- The authority to use that budget and grant a contract award.
- A timeline in which they want to start the work.
Nurturing: Nurturing consists of two things: first, identifying concerns, questions, or barriers a buyer might have and addressing them. This not only builds confidence in the buyer but gives you insights into the proposal. Second: keeping in regular positive contact. Be proactive on this. End every meeting with a review of what concerns, questions, or barriers you’re going to resolve next and confirm the timeline and schedule of decision-making. If a buyer hasn’t responded – politely nudge them on a regular basis. If you no longer think a buyer is serious – find out by asking “is now not the right time, and if not when might be?” You don’t want to spend time chasing deals that won’t happen.
Proposing: Congratulations! All that work has paid off and you finally get to put your best foot forward in providing a proposal. Proposals usually consist of both technical and financial elements. And if you’ve done a good job qualifying and nurturing the opportunity through the pipeline the proposal should almost write itself. How you will solve their problem, address any concerns that came up, and show how you’ll deliver the results they seek.
Selection & Negotiation: The work isn’t over when you hit send on the proposal! There may be clarifying questions, request for a demonstration, or additional details. Selection & Negotiation is a lot like nurturing – find out what the barriers to selection are and manage them while keeping positive regular contact with the buying team.
Tips for Selling as a Process with Pipeline Development
Numerous books and blogs give advice on how to work on pipeline development. But when you’re just beginning, there are three tips I’d suggest starting with based on my own experience over the years:
1. Don’t mistake the opportunity stage you’re in.
2. Don’t spend too much time on unqualified opportunities vs. developing qualified ones.
3. Managing the pipeline efficiently:
- Load new opportunities frequently.
- Disqualify opportunities that aren’t ready quickly
- Nurture qualified opportunities through development.
Resources for Sales Pipeline
Just as there are many books and website posts about the sales pipeline – lots of people will try and sell you fancy tools. You become an opportunity in their pipeline! But ask yourself – if you’re not already getting that notional 30 opportunities loaded that lead to one sale; do you really need a fancy tool? At Dialectic, for five years now we’ve managed our sales pipeline on a simple google sheet and we’ve attached a free copy available through Google Sheets.
Closing
Selling System Dynamics work – whether to a private business, government research, or finding a faculty posting – requires many elements. But one thing it doesn’t require is a sales personality. Understanding selling as a process and using a sales pipeline to manage that process helps immensely.
I’m always happy to network and exchange ideas – so if you need help on the sales pipeline or any aspect of developing System Dynamics as a business offering feel free to drop me a line at timc@dialecticsims.com or hit me up on Twitter @DialecticSims or @InfoMullet. Be sure to say hi and let me know if you appreciate this post or if there are other topics you’d like to hear about. And don’t forget to bookmark the System Dynamics Society Practitioners Blog!
Watch the recording below
Want to know more about How to Sell System Dynamics? Watch the recording below!
In this webinar, Timothy Clancy clarifies how selling System Dynamics is less about having a sales personality than it is about following a process known as a sales pipeline. This seminar is designed for startups, early-career contractors, or other practitioners slogging through the business development cycle of landing System Dynamics contracts. Additionally, the concept and application of a sales pipeline are transferable to other applications of System Dynamics: grad school or grant applications, employment pursuits, and even publication.
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About the Author
Timothy Clancy (Tim) is the founder of Dialectic Simulations Consulting, LLC a firm focused on delivering systems thinking and simulation capabilities to public, private, and non-profit 500 clients. Tim’s career in consulting spans over 25 years, including 10 years at IBM, where he was deeply involved in both business development and delivery. Tim has a Ph.D. in System Dynamics from WPI.
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Q&A Session: From Problem Selection to Modeling and Career Development with Mohammad Jalali
A Q&A session with Mohammad Jalali. An interactive event where the audience is the main driver of the talk. Questions from all directions, from how to choose a good dynamic problem to career development.
Watch the recording below
About the Speaker
Mohammad S. Jalali (MJ) is an Assistant Professor at Harvard Medical School and works on data science and simulation-based approaches to help policymakers develop effective policies. He works with decision-makers, does fieldwork, and collects data to inform his models and analyses. Since 2019, he has received over $5 million in grant funding and his work has been featured in several publications. He has also held several editorial positions and has received multiple awards for his work. Before joining Harvard, he was a research faculty at MIT Sloan and a consultant at the World Bank.
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