UK Government Uses System Dynamics to Forecast Employment Impact
The Urban Dynamic Model (UDM) is a simulation of how transport interacts with population, employment and land-use over long periods of time, typically ten years or more. It was developed to help understand how transport could contribute to economic regeneration by improving the ability of employers to recruit a workforce and their access to customers and suppliers, and by improving access to employment opportunities.
For example, the vicious circle of congestion is familiar to us all but is almost impossible to capture in traditional models. In short, the cycle includes improved transport which reduces travel time, making businesses easier to access for customers, generating increased employment, leading to more transport activity and increased congestion.
The UDM was developed over a number of years, beginning with a fairly simple model built in 2000. This was used in one of a series of large scale transport studies commissioned by the government at the time. Its role at that time was to test the regeneration claims being made for a proposed by-pass that would have passed through an area of outstanding natural beauty. Models of this type must be able to represent the spatial characteristics of the study area, usually using a zone structure, and the road and public transport links connecting the zones together. Other applications followed, and then in 2005 we were commissioned by the Department for transport to carry out a study into the impact of transport on business location decisions. Current guidance from the Department for Transport emphasises the wider role of transport in supporting the economy, but also points to the need for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
The UDM is generic, and has been applied widely in the UK with local authorities. Conclusions vary from one application to another, but some of the findings we have reported include measures to generate employment can appear to have a significant effect if examined very locally, but we often find that some employment is transferred from elsewhere, and the net effect can be less than might first appear, city centres remain the best locations for many types of employer because they provide the best access to a workforce and bring ‘agglomeration’ benefits that employers enjoy by being clustered together. Studies of major programmes of transport investment typically involve expenditure of tens or hundreds of millions of pounds. The measured benefits are usually expressed in money, and expressing both the social and economic impacts of investment and can also run to hundreds of millions of pounds.
|Client||UK local authorities|
|Authors/Consultants||Swanson J (Sdgworld; Steer Davies Gleave)|
|For more information on this case, please contact John Swanson at Sdgworld, or see this link.|
OTHER SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS
Twinings Uses System Dynamics Games to Enhance HR Capability
Twinings Uses System Dynamics Games to Enhance HR Capability “Realistic simulation is a powerful approach to building capability. The business simulation developed [by Dashboard Simulations and Lane4] gave [Twinings staff] an experience that called for them to develop...
RSC Uses System Dynamics to Increase HVACR Sales Against the Tide
RSC Uses System Dynamics to Increase HVACR Sales Against the Tide “Using the proven Strategy Dynamic process focused our limited resources on organizing strategic issues, identifying the critical resources, and developing the insight to more rapidly create intuitive...
Achieving a Polio-Free World Through System Dynamics Simulation
Achieving a Polio-Free World Through System Dynamics Simulation EXECUTIVE Summary This System Dynamics model underpinned a 192 country resolution to eradicate polio globally and led the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to give Rotary International $100 million to...
Exploring Careers in System Dynamics
11 am NY | 4 pm London | 12 am Beijing | Time Converter Exploring Careers in System Dynamics Join us for an engaging panel discussion on careers in System Dynamics featuring experts Sharon Els, Eduardo Romanovski, and Georg Pallaske, moderated by Shane Carnohan. This...
Engaging Younger Audiences in Climate Change Education
Engaging Younger Audiences in Climate Change Education This webinar focused on engaging younger audiences in climate change education using the analogy of a bathtub. Linda Booth Sweeney, a systems educator, and author shared innovative ways to educate children about...
The Role of Creativity in System Dynamics and Systems Thinking
The Role of Creativity in System Dynamics and Systems Thinking A thought-provoking discussion led by internationally renowned expert Dennis Sherwood, as we explore the concept of creativity in System Dynamics and Systems Thinking. Delve into questions such as what...
Celebrating Women’s International Day
Celebrating Women’s International Day Over the past several decades, more women have become part of the System Dynamics field, greatly increasing gender diversity in our discipline. We have many amazing, inspiring, brilliant, and visionary female leaders. Today...
LET US BE PART OF YOUR JOURNEY
Do you want to lead your organization into the future by overcoming paradigms and creating change? With Systems Thinking and System Dynamics you will enable powerful decision-making and find the leverage points to improve profits, strategy, efficiency, sustainability, and more.
Talk with Us
The most efficient way to align your needs with our offerings is to schedule a meeting with our Executive Director, Rebecca Niles
Engage a Systems Consultant
Looking for a Systems Consultant? Fill out this form and we will follow up with a call and, soon enough, the right person for the job.
Experience Systems Thinking
Bring in a facilitator to unleash the power of Systems Thinking in your organization. Fill out this form for a Beer Game facilitator and join the companies, and graduate and MBA programs that play this game all over the world. Contact us if a facilitator for a different game is needed.
Join the WPI Sytem Dynamics Fundamentals Course to understand the causes of dynamic behavior at a basiic level and much more! The course is self-led and self-paced.