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1996 Proceedings – Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

The 14th International Conference

of the System Dynamics Society

1996 – Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

The following papers were presented at the conference in parallel, plenary, and poster sessions. The original printed proceedings, edited by George P. Richardson and John D. Sterman, were printed in hardcopy (Volume 1: A-L and Volume 2: M-Z) and distributed at the conference. Below please find the Paper Index for these proceedings, including a link to the paper when available. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author. To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author’s name. Available papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from

PAPER INDEX – listed alphabetically by first author:

Ackere, Ann van with Peter Smith   Analyzing National Health Service Waiting Times
Akkermans, Henk with Jac Vennix   Clients’ Opinions on Group Model-Building: An Exploratory Study
Alanne, Prikka-Matti P. with Anil B. Jambekar   Putting Systems Thinking to Use: A Case Study
Alexander, William   Efficiency In Sustainability – The Efficient Life Styles of Kerala
Alfeld, Louis Edward   Dynamic Simulation of Rural Social and Economic Interaction
Alfeld, Louis Edward with Robert M. Sholtes   The Industrial Base Analysis Model (IBAM)
Anderson, E.G. with N.R. Joglekar   Modeling the Dynamics of Technological Ramp-up Within Firms
Andrade Sosa, Hugo Hernando with Jaime Daniel Mejia Castro, Ricardo Vicente Jaime Vivas and Jose Alberto Pinto Mantilla   Microworlds: A System Dynamics Application in Learning Keynesian Macroeconomics
Andrade Sosa, Hugo Hernando with Alvaro Ramirez Garcia and Jose Daniel Cabrera Cruz   Re-Building Knowledge By Assumption of Complexity with System Dynamics – A Case Example in Polymerization Process Engineering
Antunes, Maria Paula with Rui Santos and Nuno Videira   The Impact of Environmental Policy on a Firm’s Behavior – A System Dynamics Approach
Aronson, Daniel   Walking Through the Minefield: How Systems Thinkers Avoid Fallacies of Perception and Action
Arthur, William B. with Robert L. Eberlein   Sensitivity Simulation
Barlas, Yaman with Vedat G. Diker   Decision Support for Strategic University Management: A Dynamic Interactive Game
Barlas, Yaman with Ayse Aksogan   Product Diversification and Quick Response Order Strategies in Supply Chain Management
Barron, Antonio with Silvio Martinez and Jose Maria Lopez   A Simulation Model for Telecommunications Services Partially Substituting
Barton, John   A Contemporary Masters Program in Systems Thinking and System Dynamics
Barton, John   A Framework for Addressing Contemporary Management Problems
Barton, John with Purnandu Mandel   A Policy Model for a Retail Water Company in Australia
Bave, Eric    Recycling of Building Materials
Bell, Gary A. with J.O. Jenkins   A Proposed Project Management Cost Modeling Taxonomy
Benassi, Mario with Roberto Berchi   Modularization of the Enterprise and System Dynamics Models: An Application to the Explication of Suggestions from the Shops
Benigno, Edwin   A Model of the Rice Postharvest System in the Philippines
Bernstein, Dan S.   Global Change Education: The Use of System Dynamics Concepts for Science and Policy Interface
Bianchi, Carmine with Alfredo Moscardini   Budget Formulation, Unpredictability and the Use of System Dynamics as a Coordinating and Learning Mechanism in Regional Government Management
Bickle, Bruce with Bernard McGarvey   Application of Dynamic modeling to a Solvent Recovery Area at a Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant.
Boucher, Adrian   New Approaches to Learning and Teaching: Student-Centred Modelling with Visually-Oriented Simulation Packages
Bridgeland, David with Dorothy Yu and Mitesh Suckak   A Management Flight Simulator for Strategy Communication and Organizational Alignment
Carena, Augusto with Dharma Sri   Mass Learning: An Application of System Dynamics
Calvaleri, Steven A. with James A. Thompson   Assessing the Efficacy of Microworlds for Promoting Systems Thinking
Cloutier, Martin L. with Steven T. Sonka and Randall E. Westgreen   Linking the Film to its Environment: A System Dynamic Approach
Cole, Vera J. with M.K. Hughes   Using System Dynamics to Determine the Return on Investment in Engineering Information Technology
Colemann-Kemmula, Seetha   A Study of the Manpower System of a Shell R&D Laboratory
Coyle, R. G with C.J. Miller   The Strategic Dynmaics of Counter-Insurgency Warfare
Crespo Marquez, Adolfo with Rafael Ruiz Usano, Jose Manuel Framinan Torres and Ricardo Zubiria de Castro   The Pull Control Systems:  A System Dynamics Perspective
de Kok, Jean- Luc with H.G. Wind   Systems Dynamics as a Methodology for Sustainable Coastal- Zone Management
Despotakis, Vassilios K. with Maria Giaoutzi   Spatial Modeling of Urban Dynamics
Deweese, Michael R.   Decision Making in a Small School District: A Case Study Employing Principles of Systems Thinking and iThkink
Diehl, Ernst   Proactive Maintenance and Reactive Repair
Doyle, James K. with Michael J. Radzicki and W. Scott Trees    Measuring the Effects of Systems Thinking Interventions on Mental Models
Drew, Donald R. with Allan D. Chasey, Jesus M. de la Garza and Wonkyu Kim   System Dynamics Model of a State Highway Management System
Drew, Stephen A. with Peter A. Smith   Competitive Advantage Through Knowledge Management: A System Dynamics Approach
Duncan, Richard C.   The Mexican Petroleum ‘Play In Two Acts’: Taking Hold of Oil Productions Data
Dyner, Issac with Derek W. Bunn   Development of a Systems Simulation Platform to Analyze Market Liberalisation and Integrated Energy Conservation In Colombia
Eberlein, Robert L. with James H. Hines   Molecules for Modelers
Elg, Fredrik   An Approach for Understanding Learning and Decision Making in Complex Dynamic Systems
Ford, David N. with J.D. Sterman   Dynamics Modeling of Product Development Processes
Forrester, Nathan B.   A Hard Look at Social Security
Fowler, Alan   Simulation’s Evolving Role in Management
Fukuda, Atsushi with Hironori Suzuki, Takahiro Kojima and Shigeru Koyama   Demand Forecasting System for Suburban Railway Project Using System Dynamics and Geographical Information System
Fukuda, Atsushi with Yoshio Hanzawa and Ryoichi Ebisawa   Traffic Engineering Class for Techincal College Students Using STELLA
Gascon, Fernando   Reputation in Banking and Deposit Insurance: the Dynamics of Browsing and Lending under Regulation
Gary, Shane with Chris Charyk   Using Groupware Technology to Facilitate Team Model Building and Learning
Genta, Peter J. with Neville Sokol   A Microworld of Exploration and Development: Creating a Learning Laboratory for the Oil & Gas Industry
Georgantzas, Nicholas C. with Stephen H. Brovarone   Globalizing High Sulfur Fuel Oil Marketing
Georgantzas, Nicholas C.   Reengineering Business Process Reengineering with System Dynamics
Gricic, Branko with Ante Munitic   System Dynamics Approach to Validation
Groessler, Andreas   Providing Simulation Models on the Internet
Grossman, M.   Designing Strategies to Achieve Sustainable Growth for Biotechnology Companies
Guerra, Juan Hernandez   Studies of a Model of Entertainment Between Economic Cycles
Guthrie, Scott with Diana Fisher   Systems Thinking and Systems Dynamics in the CC-STADUS High School Project
Hall, Roger with M.P. Gupta   Using a Corporate System Model of a Firm to Investigate the Feedback Dynamics Leading to Growth, Decline, and Bankruptcy
Haslett, Tim with Charles Osborne   Local Decision Rules: Complexity or Chaos?
Haslett, Tim   Three Simulation for Teaching Systems Thinking
Hermann, John F. with John L. DeOlden   A Flight Simulator for University Department Planning
Higuchi, Tohru   Parameter Estimation Involved to System Dynamics Model by Multi-Objective Optimization Technique
Hines, James   Modeling the Evolution of Organizations
Hines, James H. with Dewey Johnson   Competitive Dynamics: Context, Model, Outcome, and Ongoing Use
Homer, Jack with Fred Nichols   Enterprise Modeling at ETS: Highways and Biways
Hsiao, Naiyi   Evaluating the Policy of Stratospheric Ozone Protection- a System Dynamic Modeling Approach
Huz, Steven with David F. Andersen, George P. Richardson and Roger Boothroyd   Evaluating Group Model Building in Mental Health Vocational Services
Jambekar, Anil B.   A System View of Design Engineering Capacity: Continuous Improvement Policy Interaction
Jonas, Wolfgang   Systems Thinking in Industrial Design
Jones, Andrew with Elizabeth Krahmer, Rogelio Oliva, Nelson Repenning, Scott Rockart and John Sterman   Comparing Improvement Programs for Product Development and Manufacturing: Results from Field Studies
Jordao, Luis with M.P. Antunes and R.F. Santos   Reactive vs. Proactive Corporate Environment Management: A System Dynamics Learning Environment
Joy, Timothy   Crime and Astonishment
Kallenberg, Robert with Charles H. Fine   Analysis and Business Cycles in the U.S. Machine Tool Industry
Kampmann, Christian E.   Feedback Loop Gains and System Behavior
Karsky, Michel with Stephane Copin and Sonia Pitrach   The Implementation of a Large System Dynamics Model of Human Behavior
Khalil, Yahia F. with Michael Radzicki   The Dynamics of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Industry
Kim, Doa Hoon with Dong-Hwan Kim   How Heuristic are Heuristic Decision Rules in a Dynamic Game?
Kim, Dong- Hwan with Jae-Ho Juhn   Dynamics of Networks: System Dynamics Model for Network Externality and Critical Mass
Koenig, Ulli H.   Use of Simulation in Management and Management Education: Speeding up the Wheel of Learning?
Koerstein, Ralf with Bernd Viehweger   Evaluation of Neutral Networks via Generic Modelling using System Dynamics
Krahmer, Elizabeth M. with Scott Rockart   Carbon Sequestration and Emission Management: A Costal Rican Case Study
Kunsberg, Phillip   An Interactive Simulation of a Manufacturing Enterprise: Prelimimary Observations
Lane, David   Can We Have Confidence in Generic Structures?
Langley, Paul with John Morecroft   Learning from Microworlds Environments: A Summary of the Research Issues
Lao, Hong Mou   Energy Capacity Management for the Industrial Sector of Zhejiang Province in China: A System Dynamics Model
Larsen, Erik R. with Alessandro Lomi   The Dynamics of Organizational Inertia, Survival and Change
Lehmann, Frank   A System View of the Design of Modern Manufacturing Systems
Lopez Paredes, Adolfo with Alfonso Redondo Castan and Ricardo del Olmo Martinez   The Spanish Glass Container Maker. A Model of Strategic Planning in a Firm
Lyneis, James M. with Alexander L. Pugh III   Automated vs. ‘Hand’ Calibration of System Dynamics Models: An Experiment With a Simple Project Model
MacDonald, Roderick H.   Discrete Versus Continuous Formulation: A Case Study Using Coyle’s Aircraft Carrier Survivability Model
Macedo, Julio with Rafael Ruiz Usano   An Intelligent System Dynamics Based controller for Fuzzy Managerial System
Machuca, Jose A. D. with Miguel A. Domingo Carrillo   Transparent- Box Business Simulator verus Black- Box Business Simulators: an Initial Empirical Comparative Study
Madachy, Raymond   Modeling Software Processes with System Dynamics: Current Developments
Madwed, Albert   Systems Thinking for K-12 Teachers: A New Course at the Graduate School of Education and Allied Professions, Fairfield University
Maier, Frank with Juergen Strohhecker   Do Management Flight Simualtors Really Enhance Decision Effectiveness?
Maier, Frank   Substitution Among Successive Product Generations- An Almost Neglected Problem In Innovation Diffusion Models
Maliapen, Mahendran with Ram Ramasehan and M. Quaddus   System Dynamics Approach to Marketing Modeling in the Airline Industry
Mandal, Purnendu with Amrik S. Sohal   Modeling Quality Improvement Processes
Mandal, Purnendu with Amrik S. Sohal   Understanding Long Term Interactions in Fabricated Metal Manufacturing Industry: A Case
Mashayekhi, Ali N.   Oscillation in Preventitive Maintenance Programs
Mayberry, Matt with Kent Hoxsey, Kerry McCracken and Carl Rendell   Using Systems Thinking and Dynamics Simulations to Reengineer Manufacturing Processes at Silicon Graphics
Milling, Peter   A Management Stimulator to Support Group Decision Making in a Corporate Gaming Environment
Moizer, Jonathan D.   Safely Knowledge and its Influence over Accidents in the Workplace
Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad with David F. Andersen   Assessing the System-wide Impacts of Automated Voice Response Customer Service Technologies
Mollona, Eduardo   The Dynamics of Organizational Heuristics and Biases in Corporate Strategy
Moon, Tae Hoon with Deuk Jong Bae, Doa Hoon Kim and Dong Whan Kim   Comparing Strategies for Building Korean Information Infrastructure Using a System Dynamic Model
Morecoft, John   A Behavioral Model of Diversification and Performance in a Mature Industry
Morita, Michiya with Nobuhide Tanaka, Yutaka Takahashi and Toru Higuchi   Linkage Structure and Trade-offs of Competitive Measures
Moxnes, Erling   Crisis Management of a Renewable Resource
Moxnes, Erling   Stochastic Optimization in Policy Space Using Simulation Models
Oliva, Rogelio   Empirical Validation of a Dynamic Hypothesis
Parayno, Phares P.   Poverty-Environment Links in the Philippines
Park, Hun-Joon with Jimwoo Kim, Kuen S. Yi and Kiho Jun   Enhancing the Performance in Dynamic Decision Making: The Adaptive Model Reconstruction Using Feedforward vs. Feedback Decision Strategy
Piatelli, Mauro with Nicola Bianchi and Luca Minna   Note on Conceptual Distance in Simulation using the Polls Model as a Basis for Discussion
Qu, Weishhuang with Gerald O. Barney and Jos Verbeek   RMSM-X in Vensim: Refining the Financial Sector of the Threshold 21 National Development Model
Reichelt, Kimberly S. with James M. Lyneis and Carl G. Bespolka   Calibration Statistics: Selecting a Statistic and Settling a Standard
Repenning, Nelson   Modeling the Failure of Productivity Improvement Programs
Rios, Jose Perez with Markus Schwaninger   Integrative Systems Modeling: Leveraging Complementarities of Qualitative and Quantitative Methodologies
Roberts, James C.   The Stucture of Structural Violence
Rodrigues, Alexandre J.G. with Terry Williams   System Dynamics in Project Management: Assesing the Impacts of Client Behavior in Project Management
Rodrigues, Alexandre J.G. with Terry Williams   System Dynamics in Software Project Management: Towards the Development of a Formal Integrated Framework
Roos, Egbert   System Dynamics Modeling: A Case Study from the Software Product Development
Root, Gus with Grant McGriffin   They will Learn what They See Others Doing
Rothman, Johanna   Applying Systems Thinking to the Issues of Software Product Development
Rouwette, Etienne with Jac Vennix   The Influence of Group Model Building on Policy Intentions
Ruiz Usano, Rafael with Jose Manuel Framinan Torres, Adolfo Crespo Marquez and Ricardo Zubiria de Castro   System Dynamics and Discrete Stimulation in a Constant Work-in-Process System: A Comparative Study
Ruth, Matthias   Exploring Spatio- Temporal Dynamics in Economic Exchange: A Dynamic Modeling Approach
Ryan, Thomas   A Peircian Framework for Using System Dynamics Modeling as an Inquiry System
Sahara, Kanji with Kinya Machida, Nobuyuki Suzuki and A. Uchino   Environmental Model of Atmosphere- from Japan Model to East Asian Companies
Santoni, Marco   A Stimulation Model Behaviour of Innovative Companies
Sedhi, Habib with Carmine Bianchi   A Winery Dynamic Model for “Product Portfolio” Management
Sedhi, Habib   SYDIC- System Dynamics- Italian Chapter
Shafto, Syvia A. with CJ Kalin and Michael G. Shafto   Cognitive and Instructional Issues in System Modeling
Shawwash, Ziad K. with S.O. Dennis Russell   Use of System Dynamics for Managing Water in Jordan
Sitompul, Rislima F. with Muhammad Tasrif   A System Dynamics View of the Rural Community Development in Indonesia
Smith, Andrew with Allen Boorstein   A Systemic Approach to System Dynamics Education: A Status Report
Smith, Ricardo with Santiago Montoya, Carlos Jamie Franco and Issac Dyner   Assessing the Dynamics of Energy Markets Under Liberalisation Process
Smits, Cyprian A. with E.J. Verroen   A System Dynamics Model for Long Term Travel Demand Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Sotaquira, G. Ricardo with Hugo Andrade and Lilia Nayibe Gelvez   Organizational Design with System Dynamics and Radical Change Approach
Sridharan, Sanjeev   Can Vector- Autoregression Methodology Help in an Understanding of the Casual Dynamics of the Unemployment- Crime Relationships?
Stave, Krystyna A.   Redefining Resources: A Systems Perspective on the Watershed Protection Conflict Between New York City and the Catskill Mountain Region
Stefano, Julia M Di   Edutaining, Engaging the Learner, and System Dynamics
Sterman, John D. with Nelson Repenning, Rogelio Oliva, Elizabeth Krahmer, Scott Rockart and Andrew Jones   The Improvement Paradox: Designing Sustainable Quality Improvement Programs
Sterman, John D. with Rebecca Henderson, Eric Beinhocker and Lee I. Newman   A Behavioural Analysis of Learning Curve Strategy
Sturges, Stephen with Graham Winch   Computer Attack: The Role of Modeling in Development an Intergrated Securtiy Policy
Sturtevant, Rochelle   The Effect of Nutrient Recycling on Ecosystem Stability
Suksawang, Orasa   System Dynamics Approach to Managing Community Development
Sunaryo, Prasetyo with Tusy A. Adbroto, Hary Budiarto and Ervan Maksum   Application of Sysytem Dynamics on Watershead Management on Java Island, Indonesia
Sycamore, Douglas   Improving Software Project Management Through System Dynamics Modeling
Tasrif, Muhammad   The Implications of Environmental Consideration in Energy Development to the General Economic Welfare and Development in Indonesia
Thiel, Daniel   Instabilities and Deterministic Chaos In Just-In-Time Production Systems: Comparison between Neutral Networks Stimulation and Continuous Stimulation
Tosteson, Joshua   Systems Dynamics and Earth Systems Science: Bridging the Gaps Between Research and Education
Trees, W. Scott with James K. Doyle and Micheal J. Radizcki   Using Cognitive Styles Typology to Explain Dynamics Decision Making in a Computer Stimulated Environment
Wang, Qifan   A Systems Dynamics Study of the Coordinated Development of Regional Infastructure
Wang, Wanlong with Jerry Fuh and X Yongnian   Dynamic Analysis of Manufacturing Systems
Wile, Kristina with David Smilonich   Using Dynamic Stimulation for Resource Management Policy Design at the Minnesota Department of Transportation
Willey, Phillip C.T. with Amil K. Bajpai   A Systems Dynamic Model of Manufacturing Quality Costs and Benefits
Wolstenholme, Eric   Community Care for the Elderly in the UK
Wyatt, Ray   Strategic Planning Using Neutral Network-based, Delphi, Workshop Software
Xiang, Gang with Liu Linhong   A System Dynamics Model for an Enterprise’s Sustainable Innovation Process
Xu, Qingruil with Jie Han, Bin Guo and Jin Chen   Hi-Tech Impulse: A New Coordinative Development Pattern of Social- Economy- Technology-Education Systems
Yang, Jenshou   Facilitating Learning Through Goal Setting in a Learning Laboratory
Young, Showing H. with Chai Ping Chen   Entrapping Landmine Structure in Microworlds Formed with Uncontrollable Positive Feedback Loops
Young, Showing H. with Shih-Hui Lo   Experiences in Designing Board-type Stimulation Games for Center Satellite Industrial System
Young, Showing H. with Sy-Feng Wang   Measuring the Learning of Systems Thinking: Theory and Method
Yu, Jia-Di with Xin-Yun Zeng   Study on Development Strategies of Regional Water Resources System
Yu, Lijuan   Guided by Learning Organization to Practice a Process Reengineering for an Enterprise Business
Zagonel, Aldo   A Dynamics Model for Analyzing Urban Growth in a Planned City
Zamudio-Ramirez, Pavel with Andrew Spicer, John Sterman, Steve Eppinger and John Ehrenfeld   Economics of Automobile Recycling
Zaraza, Ronald with Diana Fisher   Experiences in Developing Single-Discipline and Cross- Curricular Models for Classroom Use